Wednesday, August 27, 2008


NIFTY (4337 +2 pts)

Supp 4300/4250/4210 Res 4375/4435/4470

SENSEX (14482 +32 pts)

Supp 14280/14130/14000 Res 14650/14760/14880

Review of the previous session:-

  • Markets opened negative on negative global cues but late recovery was seen led by IT, banking and auto stocks. Volumes were low and breadth was also flat.

  • BSE Breadth 1199 Adv-1389 Dec NSE Breadth 511 Adv-687 Dec Upper Circuit -150 Lower Circuit –123

  • BSE Vol Rs 3789 Cr NSE Vol Rs 8669 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 49779 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 572 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 276 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 8 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 24 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 34406 Cr and Options is 24358 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $828.10/oz Nymex Crude $116.27/bbl

  • Indian Rupee hit 17-month low of 44.10 against the dollar and closed at 43.89.

F&O observations:-

  • Long build-up – CNX IT, Star, Noida, MLL, Kotak, Polaris, HDFC Bank

  • Short build-up – IBRealestate, Axis, IOB, Reliance, Amtek Auto, Aban

  • OI 83394 Cr (+2135 Cr) Nifty OI Up 4% PCR 1.07 (from 1.07)

  • Tech stocks saw long build-up and new entrants in the F&O segment were active. FSL was a mega-mover with 22% gain in a single day. Nifty PCR still stands around danger levels of 1.00 as we move closer to the August expiry.

Outlook for 27 August, 2008:-

  • It’s truly been a rocking chair for the last 3 sessions and a decisive move looks probable only after we settle this expiry on Thursday. It is better to be on sidelines in a directionless market.

  • Volumes in NSE & BSE cash have gradually dropped to a large extent as we are trading around only 35-40% of January-08 volumes. FIIs are on a relentless selling spree, but being absorbed by Mutual Funds so far. In such a setting, small buy/sell orders can give way to large swings intraday, which can impact prices adversely. One would do well by keeping 60-70% cash levels, buying can be avoided as long as we don’t see any trend materializing.

  • Nifty is ranged between 4450 and 4250 and a break of one level would give a trend in that direction. Stock-specific movement will be seen.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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