Monday, October 25, 2010

Weekly Market Update 23 Oct, 2010 by Tanmay G Purohit

Nifty has closed flat for the week with just 4 points higher closing at 6066. TCS was top gainer of the week with 9% gains followed by SUN PHARMA, RELIANCE, RANBAXY, CIPLA, HERO HONDA, SUZLON rose more than 3% each. SESA GOA was major loser with more than 8% loss. STERLITE, WIPRO, HDFC, JPASSO were other top losers from Nifty.
Q2 results have been good so far – For 307 companies announcing results Sales have risen 19% while Profits have grown by 28% led by other income growth of 76%. The food price index ease 15.53% while the fuel price index climbed 11.14% in the year to 9 October 2010 still high levels and RBI meet on November 2nd will be eyed
Weekly Technical View: Nifty has been unable to post gains for the last 3 weeks and if 5960-5930 support zone is broken correction can be fast. For becoming strong again Nifty has to trade above 6200 on a consistent basis and 6357 remains important resistance being all time high. Nifty has formed a lower top near 6121 against yearly high of 6284 and if the weakness continues break of 5930 can take Nifty towards 5800/5730 also.
 Support 5960/5815/5722 Resistance 6135/6246/6360

Sensex has closed the week higher by 40 points at 20165 and this is first positive close after 2 weeks of negativity. Sensex has formed a Harami Cross as Weekly Candlestick pattern which indicates indecision and as long as sustained move below 19700 or above 21000 close is not seen the trend would be only stock-specific. If 19700 is broken major support would be 18970. Sensex in its history so far hasn’t been able to close past 21000 and once that happens there can be a major shift towards bulls where 22500 can be next target.
Support 19770/19300/18980 Resistance 20370/20715/20900

Technical Call: MRPL (Rs 82.80):- The stock is near an important breakout on weekly graph and sustained move above Rs 85 can take stock higher towards Rs 87-89 also. Stock trades at 11 day high and above Rs 85 it would be a 10-week high. Buying can be considered near Rs 83-84 levels for Rs 88-90 as target and Rs 80 can be an adequate stop loss.


Monday, October 18, 2010

Weekly Market Update 16 Oct, 2010 by Tanmay G Purohit

Nifty has closed in the negative by 40 points at 6063 for 2nd week running and Nifty has fallen by more than 200 points in the last 2 sessions. SESA GOA rose nearly 7% this week becoming top gainer in Nifty, followed by TATA MOTORS, STERLITE, WIPRO which rose more than 2% each. Losers outnumbered gainers this week – OIL & GAS stocks were major losers as Crude rose past $83 – BPCL -7% and HPCL, OIL, IOC along with BHARTI AIRTEL, NTPC, AXIS BANK fell more than 4% each this week. 

IIP Data for August was below expectations as IIP dropped to 15-month low at 5.6% against Reuters estimates around 9.65%. The volatility will make it more difficult for policymakers, especially the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to assess economic conditions as they battle inflationary pressures. Infosys reported 13.15% jump in its consolidated net profit for the second quarter ending September 30, 2010 to Rs 1,737 crore, as against Q2 of the last fiscal and results were above expectations but guidance was very conservative giving way to profit-taking in IT sector on Friday.
Weekly Technical View:
Nifty has closed in negative for 2nd consecutive week and retraced from near 6300 levels, correction is healthy for the ongoing trend as one-side rally can have similar fall also. Nifty has hit 10-day low and trend would remain weak if 6200 levels are not crossed again. Nifty holding 6000 levels can give pullback towards 6200 but breaking below 5930 would be a cause of worry for short-term traders.
Support 6030/5930/5825 Resistance 6140/6210/6315

Sensex has closed the week lower by 125 points at 20125 and 17-day low at 19771 would be an important support to hold. Sensex is very close to previous all time high near 21206 and more profit-taking is not ruled out as long as it doesn’t comfortably close above 21000.
Support 20000/19780/19400 Resistance 20380/20720/21000

Technical Call: ESSAR OIL (Rs 139):- The stock has broken out on weekly graph and as long as Rs 132 levels are held higher levels can be possible. Stock trades above short and long term moving averages and crossover of Rs 147 can give fast up move in the stock. Rs 150-152 can be upside while Rs 132 can be stop loss.