Monday, August 18, 2008


NIFTY (4430 -99 pts)

Supp 4350/4320/4260 Res 4460/4510/4560

SENSEX (14724 -368 pts)

Supp 14520/14400/14170 Res 14900/15030/15130

Review of the previous session:-

  • Markets opened negative as banking and realty stocks were under pressure from the word “go” ahead of the inflation figures. Sensex closed below 15000. Tech stocks were strong.

  • Inflation accelerated faster than expected in early August to a new 13-year high of 12.44 percent. For the week ended Aug. 2, the WPI was above the previous week's 12.01 percent and the highest since the current series became available in 1995.

  • The Cabinet approved the sixth pay commission giving a pay rise between 28 and 40% over existing basic pay for Central Govt employees. The revised pay scale is effective from Jan06 leading to more pressure on fiscal front.

  • BSE Breadth 811 Adv-1849 Dec NSE Breadth 246 Adv-981 Dec Upper Circuit -129 Lower Circuit –121

  • BSE Vol Rs 4882 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11018 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 43947 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 573 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 23 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 859 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 223 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 32205 Cr and Options is 21060 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $792.10/oz Nymex Crude $113.77/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Long build-up – Polaris, BChinni, TataPower

  • Short build-up – Triveni, Renuka, JPAsso, HindPetro, IDFC, DLF, BankNifty, BRFL, SBI, LT, NTPC, Punj

  • OI 76031 Cr (-1436 Cr) Nifty OI Unchanged PCR 1.15 (from 1.24)

  • Sugar stocks saw more shorts building up. PCR eased indicating more pressure on bulls.

Outlook for 18 August, 2008:-

  • Many stocks are showing bearish formations, so one need not hurry for buying positions. Some more downside is still probable and we can wait.

  • Tech stocks can rally more but realty and banking can still be avoided because of inflationary pressures. NIIT Tech and KPIT look good on graph for intraday also. Nifty can show ranged trade, but stock-specific movement can be seen.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

NIIT Tech (118): - Buy for 145-150 with SL 107.

Reliance Ind (2276):- The stock is breaking down and one can go short around 2300-2330 for target of 2130-2150. SL 2400

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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