Thursday, June 19, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 19 JUNE, 2008

NIFTY (4582 -71 pts)

Supp 4555/4490/4450 Res 4615/4645/4685

SENSEX (15422 -274 pts)

Supp 15240/15050/14890 Res 15540/15680/15790

Review of the previous session:-

  • Selling started from 4680 resistance of Nifty. To add to it, Nuke Deal meeting between Left and UPA was postponed. Finally crash warning from Royal Bank of Scotland dampened the sentiment more. Banks were major losers along with Realty. Cement saw small gains. Volumes rose as sellers became active once again.

  • BSE Breadth 1254 Adv-1402 Dec NSE Breadth 483 Adv-700 Dec Upper Circuit - 200 Lower Circuit –106

  • BSE Vol Rs 6183 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12534 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 47440 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 435 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 193 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 682 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 133 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 42054 Cr and Options is 23114 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $893.50/oz Nymex Crude $136.68/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up –Zee Enter, Ambuja, MahLife, India Cem, ACC, Ranbaxy, ITC

  • Bearish build-up – SUN TV, HCL Tech, Axis, ABB, Auro Pharma, Pantaloon, Tata Comm, IVRCL Infra, Infosys, ONGC, Bharti

  • OI 84793 Cr (-1084 Cr) Nifty OI Unchanged PCR 1.54 (unchanged)

  • Overall OI decreased but Nifty was really unchanged. More selling today can take us to 4490 and 4450 also. Cement stocks added long build-up. Axis Bank looks negative from F&O perspective.

Outlook for 18 June, 2008:-

  • Dow Jones closes down by 131 points, threatening to break psychological 12000-mark in coming sessions. Among ADRs, Tata Communication was top loser and Dr Reddy gained 3%. Asian markets have opened negative.

  • Our markets to open weak. Nifty has support around 4490-4520 levels below which only more weakness is expected. Failure to go below 4490 may give some bounce intraday.

  • Reliance is looking weak and stock can keep indices under some pressure. Cement stocks look positive.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Ashok Leyland (33.30):- The stock looks near resistance and it can correct towards 31-31.30 levels. One can go short with strict SL 34.50

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No picks


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 18 JUNE, 2008

NIFTY (4653 +81 pts)

Supp 4620/4560/4520 Res 4680/4740/4800

After giving almost a triple century from low level of 4370, Nifty is up against good resistance at 4680-4700. A correction that starts from here should be considered as worth buying only until we are above 4520-4560 levels. Fall below these levels will indicate more weakness.

SENSEX (15696 +301 pts)

Supp 15580/15450/15300 Res 15800/15970/16090


Review of the previous session:-

  • It was a very strong session as far as gains were concerned. Rally was built up slowly after initial hiccups. Banks and Real estate stocks were major gainers. The soothing fact for bulls was that FIIs turned net buyers yesterday (provisionally).

  • BSE Breadth 1784 Adv-880 Dec NSE Breadth 846 Adv-321 Dec Upper Circuit - 288 Lower Circuit – 90

  • BSE Vol Rs 5337 Cr NSE Vol Rs 10991 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 42624 Cr

  • FIIs bought Rs 142 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 420 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 677 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 49 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 42429 Cr and Options is 23016 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $886.90/oz Nymex Crude $134.01/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up –Sasken, UniPhos, IOB, Neyveli, Divi, Zee Enter, Educomp, RelCap, RelInfra, Essar Oil, Yes Bank, BomDyeing, Andhra Bank, Ranbaxy, NTPC

  • Bearish build-up – Amtek Auto, CAIRN, Rolta

  • OI 85877 Cr (+4474 Cr) Nifty OI up 3% PCR 1.54 (from 1.60)

  • Bank rally was fantastic yesterday but mostly it was short-covering and if selling starts again, we may see some downside in those stocks. So one should have a cautious view in banks at higher levels.

Outlook for 18 June, 2008:-

  • A negative opening is not ruled out but Nifty may take support around 4620. Bounce from there can again take us towards 4660-4680.

  • Current government has failed on inflation front and they will really want to make some concrete reform before putting the papers down. One such possibility is Nuke Deal which is getting shelved all the time. We have to see if it really happens but stocks like BHEL, L&T and APIL should be watched.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Glenmark (702):- The stock has broken out and one can buy with SL of 665 for target of 750 and above. Ideal buy is around 685-690.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

Alembic (53.25):- (http://www.alembic-india.com/)

Alembic Pharma is one of the oldest (more than 100 years) pharmaceutical companies in India. They manufacture pharmaceuticals and chemicals, bulk drugs and penicillin with presence in over 75 countries globally. Alembic is a fully integrated player in Anti-infective segment which is the largest segment for this company accounting for over 60% of sales. In this segment company's sales is growing at higher pace compared to industry rate. Company manufactures - bulk drugs, formulations with 4- Brands falling under top selling 300 pharma brands. Company has OTC brands like - Glycodin & Zero, in cough and sugar free sweetner segments. To capitalise on the growing opportunity in CRAMS, the company has set up a state-of-the-art research centre, BioArc, at Vadodra. The CRAMS segment is expected to scale-up significantly over the next two years contributing 10% of the company's overall sales. Alembic has free land of around 50 acres at Vadodara, which it expects to monetize over a period of time.

It has posted strong numbers for FY08. Net profit for the year ended March 31, 2008 rose by 57.7 per cent to Rs 112 crore and net sales rose by 42% to Rs 1,027 crore. The stock trades around 6 times its FY10 forward EPS which is low comparing its recent past valuations, which should give some margin of safety to investors. It looks cheap comparing peers and the long track record of the company. One should accumulate the stock for 20-25% return on investment. (Source: company website and research reports)


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 17 JUNE, 2008


NIFTY (4572 +55 pts)

Supp 4530/4475/4430 Res 4620/4655/4680

We have closed above 4556 yesterday and that should give way to more bounce around 4650-4700. In deep intraday correction, 4475 and 4430 are good supports below which we may assume that pullback rally is over.

SENSEX (15395 +206 pts)

Supp 15300/15130/15000 Res 15520/15640/15750

Review of the previous session:-

  • Stocks surged higher in opening trade but drifted somewhat intraday. Sensex could close up by more than 200 points as banks and real estate stocks recovered. Volumes were worse than Friday, breadth improved a bit.

  • Advance Tax figures (In Rs Cr) :- SBI 663 vs 503, ICICI Bank 340 vs 250, Reliance 340 vs 295, Bajaj Auto 50 vs 60, HDFC 140 vs 95

  • BSE Breadth 1776 Adv-872 Dec NSE Breadth 823 Adv-346 Dec Upper Circuit - 249 Lower Circuit – 98

  • BSE Vol Rs 4537 Cr NSE Vol Rs 10725 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 40166 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 547 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 293 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 167 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 224 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 41158 Cr and Options is 21698 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $886.30/oz Nymex Crude $134.61/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up –Welguj, GMR Infra, GAIL, BankNifty, Bajaj Hind

  • Bearish build-up – MahLife, McDowell, Titan, NIIT, Sesa

  • OI 81403 Cr (+236 Cr) Nifty OI down 3% PCR 1.60 (from 1.61)

  • Nifty saw some short-covering. Basis also decreased from around 32 to flat. The rally was mostly due to short-covering yesterday and may be that is why we saw a slow drifting finish to a rocking start. More short-covering is not ruled out but for that we have to get past resistance at 4650-4700 levels.

Outlook for 17 June, 2008:-

  • Markets to open flattish but intraday correction should find support around 4530 levels on the Nifty. The bounce can last until 4650-4700 levels.

  • Advance tax numbers are out and banks have shown major growth. Banks have already been hammered in recent past and more short-covering is possible in that sector. ICICI Bank should lead and can target 820-830 levels.

  • 15700-15800 can be the place from where supply can come, so one should watch the markets around those levels.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Bata (148.35):- Buy for target of 165-168. Keep SL at 140.

NIIT Tech (146.35):- The stock is on the way towards 165 and one should buy around 138-142 levels with SL 130.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Monday, June 16, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 16 JUNE, 2008

NIFTY (4517 -22 pts)

Supp 4485/4450/4390 Res 4570/4610/4635

SENSEX (15189 -60 pts)

Supp 15120/14960/14640 Res 15330/15440/15550

Review of the previous session:-

  • Volumes dropped significantly as it was quite a ranged day all the way. Whole day Nifty moved between 4550 and 4500 and stock-specific movement was only seen. Healthcare stocks were outperformers. Realty and Metals faced selling pressure.

  • Inflation surged to a seven year high of 8.75% vs 8.24% last week, threatening to go past 9% next week itself.

  • BSE Breadth 1445 Adv-1156 Dec NSE Breadth 630 Adv-578 Dec Upper Circuit - 218 Lower Circuit – 102

  • BSE Vol Rs 5847 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11913 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 41003 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 116 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 457 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 167 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 224 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 41158 Cr and Options is 21698 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $873.10/oz Nymex Crude $134.86/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – KPIT, Chambal, MahLife, NagarFert, 3IInfotech, Dr Reddy, GAIL, ONGC, Idea

  • Bearish build-up – Tata Comm, Suzlon, DLF, PNB, Hind Unilever, HDFC, M&M, NTPC

  • OI 81167 Cr (+1384 Cr) Nifty OI up 2% PCR 1.61 (from 1.61)

Outlook for 16 June, 2008:-

  • Markets to open firm. Nifty has to cross 4570 to reach 4610 and 4635. Selling from higher levels is not ruled out. Today’s closing being above 4556 can give way to more bounce for a day or two. But failure in that can give way to more selling in days to come.

  • Support for the Nifty is at 4480 and below that one should have a cautious view. Breaking of 4390 support can give way to panic selling. Advance Tax numbers will be out this week and they can give further signals.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Voltas (144.70):- The stock may move down. One can go short around 147-149 SL 155. The target can be 130-133.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Friday, June 13, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 13 JUNE, 2008

NIFTY (4539 +16 pts)

Supp 4485/4440/4390 Res 4610/4670/4700

SENSEX (15250 +64 pts)

Supp 15190/15070/14900 Res 15460/15530/15700

Review of the previous session:-

  • Markets opened gap-down but it was a remarkable comeback in spite of weak global sentiment. Reason was IIP data.

  • Industrial output growth rose above expectations to 7% in April from 3.9% in March. Though it was a decline year on year, main highlight was Capital Goods growth which surged to 14.2% against 10.9% last year.

  • BSE Breadth 1481 Adv-1109 Dec NSE Breadth 681 Adv-513 Dec Upper Circuit - 201 Lower Circuit – 109

  • BSE Vol Rs 6233 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13612 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 52333 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 1211 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 500 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 322 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 390 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 40967 Cr and Options is 21363 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $865/oz Nymex Crude $133.50/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – Pantaloon, RNRL, Renuka, Praj, RPL, Chambal, IndiaInfo, DCB, Bharti Airtel, Reliance

  • Bearish build-up – Suzlon, DLF, Karnataka Bank, Kotak Bank, NTPC, Crompton

  • OI 79782 Cr (+2929 Cr) Nifty OI up 1% PCR 1.61 (from 1.63)

  • Main thing was that many scrips saw long build-up yesterday whereas it was just looking like short-covering in previous small bounces. That indicates many shorts are yet to cover and this can keep the bounce running for some more time.

Outlook for 13 June, 2008:-

  • Indices to open flat to positive. In this bounce, Nifty can bounce towards 4650-4690. But one should be cautious at higher levels as supply from around 4700 is not ruled out. Bear market rallies are swift and many times supply is so great that upside targets are not reached fully.

  • Nifty range for the day can be 4610 to 4480. Below 4480, one should have a cautious approach for the day. Inflation data will be on the watch.

  • Technically speaking, there is a need for more confirmation for bottoming out. So still it is not an outright bullish call on the markets. It is advisable to be light on positions going into the weekend. Advance Tax figures are expected any time next week. Sometimes it is wiser to buy a bit late than to buy right at the bottom.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

ITC (199.95):- The stock should retrace towards 212-215 levels. Buy with SL 194 on closing basis.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

NIIT Tech (138):- It is global IT solution provider with presence in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific. It caters to mainly BFSI, Travel and Transport, Retail and Mfg sectors. The company is slowly strengthening its position in its current business organically as well as through acquisitions. NIIT Tech is one the most undervalued stocks in Indian Mid-cap IT space, trading around 6.5 times P/E ratio. The company benefits from dollar appreciation. It derives around 50% of revenues from Europe. One can buy around current levels and add in dips for investment purpose to earn 20-25% returns.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 11 JUNE, 2008


NIFTY (4449 -51 pts)

Supp 4400/4360/4240 Res 4510/4550/4600

The speed of the decline is pretty slow this time around as compared to January correction. There is no panic yet in the market. Daily we correct by a percent or two then some bounce and again correction starts. So we have to form some kind of bottom to really confirm that the low has been made. This is yet to happen.


SENSEX (14889 -176 pts)

Supp 14760/14640/14430 Res 14960/15150/15300


Review of the previous session:-

  • Sensex hit a new 2008-low at 14645 breaking previous low 14677. But short covering saved us from a big fall and we recovered after 2 pm. Banks and Tech stocks were major losers.

  • BSE Breadth 964 Adv-1667 Dec NSE Breadth 401 Adv-798 Dec Upper Circuit - 102 Lower Circuit – 224

  • BSE Vol Rs 5321 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13798 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 53893 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 910 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 296 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 1057 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 99 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 39163 Cr and Options is 20446 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $874.50/oz Nymex Crude $135.63/bbl 1$ = Rs 43.17

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – Ranbaxy, Divi, Chambal, Suzlon, SAIL, Cipla

  • Bearish build-up – GE Ship, ONGC, GMR Infra, Punj Lloyd, HCL Tech, Zee Enter, Rel Infra, ICICI Bank, Bank Nifty

  • OI 74431 Cr (+2268 Cr) Nifty OI up 3% PCR 1.48 (from 1.50)

  • Short-covering was visible in late trade as Nifty discount fell sharply. Some buying is emerging in closing hours for last 2 sessions and it indicates that some bounce is possible before next decline.

Outlook for 11 June, 2008:-

  • Markets to open flat. Nifty range for the day can be 4400 to 4540. Breaking of 4360 may give way to more selling pressure. Today’s closing below 4480 would bring more weakness in days to come.

  • ONGC recovered well yesterday and it was particularly responsible for saving the market from a big crash. It has to be watched as it is getting good support around 800 levels.

  • IIP data is to come out on 12 June and Advance tax payment information around 15th of this month. Investors are already waiting to jump into the market and this data should be watched before taking aggressive positions.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Bharti Airtel (776):- Buy around 755-765 with SL 739 and Target 800-810

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks



Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 10 JUNE, 2008


NIFTY (4500 -127 pts)

Supp 4450/4400/4240 Res 4540/4585/4615

Nifty made new 2008 low to-date but could not close below 4470 support. It can be a false breakdown but for that we have to wait for 3-4 trading sessions. In that period we can see a bounce which can take us towards 4615 and 4670. Yesterday low around 4411 should be held in that case. One would do well being stock-specific.


SENSEX (15066 -506 pts)

Supp 15000/14840/14670 Res 15200/15410/15530


Review of the previous session:-

  • It was a gap-down opening as all the heavyweights fell like mid-caps in early trade. But markets recovered somewhat after first hour of trade. Recovery to the large extent was seen in Pharmaceuticals. Real estate was a big loser.

  • BSE Breadth 474 Adv-2170 Dec NSE Breadth 137 Adv-1078 Dec Upper Circuit - 78 Lower Circuit – 325

  • BSE Vol Rs 5053 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13300 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 58333 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 1344 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 1030 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 1077 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 122 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 38417 Cr and Options is 19990 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $898.10/oz Nymex Crude $134.35/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.94

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – Nalco, CAIRN, Ranbaxy, RPL, Sun Pharma, Hero Honda, Sesa

  • Bearish build-up – Neyveli, HDIL, Axis, DLF, Suzlon, TCS, HCL Tech, Wipro, Reliance

  • OI 72163 Cr (+1384 Cr) Nifty OI up 2% PCR 1.50 (from 1.53)

  • Nifty added more shorts and Discount widened. Reliance saw fresh short build-up. That stock has the key towards next downtrend. It has a plenty of weight in both Sensex and the Nifty. It is trading close to its important support around 2120.

Outlook for 10 June, 2008:-

  • We have to cross 15500-15600 levels on the Sensex quickly in next 2-3 trading sessions or correction may again start. 14677 was the March low and it is still to be broken.

  • In such a market, averaging has to be done at 30-40% corrections and not normal 10%. The rallies will be swift and one has to be nimble to get out and get back again.

  • Any trades, especially on the long side should be done with strict SL as we are still not out of the woods. Aggression should be avoided as far as possible. Time to buy would emerge soon, we should wait.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

NTPC is taking support around 155 levels and it can target 173-175 levels.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks


http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/



Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Sunday, June 08, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 9 JUNE, 2008


NIFTY (4627 -49 pts)

Supp 4480/4440/4240 Res 4665/4700/4750

SENSEX (15572 -197 pts)

Supp 15300/14960/14670 Res 15690/15800/16000

Close below 15300 will be bad for the markets and we may test around 12300-12500 levels after that. Opening below 15300 will add impetus to the downtrend.

Review of the previous session:-

  • Opening was strong as Nifty did test 4740 levels. But overhead supply was too much to take us once again around 4600 levels. Volumes were very low. Inflation surged to 8.24% vs 8.10%.

  • BSE Breadth 1125 Adv-1524 Dec NSE Breadth 446 Adv-743 Dec Upper Circuit - 127 Lower Circuit – 145

  • BSE Vol Rs 5245 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12589 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 42888 Cr

  • FIIs bought Rs 76 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 400 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 54 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 253 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37958 Cr and Options is 18859 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $899/oz Nymex Crude $138.54/bbl 1$ = Rs 43.04

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – CAIRN, M&M, Ster, Aptech

  • Bearish build-up – Neyveli, Bomdyeing, ITC, IDFC, DLF, Ranbaxy, GAIL, Bharti

  • Indian Volatility Index 26.46 (-12.73%)

  • OI 70778 Cr (+1838 Cr) Nifty OI up 3% PCR 1.53 (from 1.64)

  • The stocks those rallied in the morning bounce were mostly because of short covering and only a handful of stocks showed long build-up. So still there is more pain to come before we can see any meaningful rally.

Outlook for 9 June, 2008:-

  • Dow Jones fell the most in 15 months on surging crude and unemployment. The crude has risen $16 in last 2 days to top $139.

  • Our markets to open gap-down and we may see a knee-jerk reaction following weak global cues. Banking and realty may be worst affected.

  • We are in danger of breaking a 9-month support level around 4450-4480 (Chart). It is not advisable to hurry up for buying. We should let the markets settle as we will get the opportunity to buy once some bottom is found.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks


http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/



Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Friday, June 06, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 6 JUNE, 2008


NIFTY (4676 +91 pts)

Supp 4640/4610/4585 Res 4710/4740/4805


SENSEX (15769 +254 pts)

Supp 15620/16500/15420 Res 16000/16190/16350

Sensex held the support at 15300 yesterday and it has tested it for the third time now. The pullback is going to continue but it may be short-lived.


Review of the previous session:-

  • It was a volatile session initially but as we tested 15300 in mid-session, buying was witnessed at once. Sensex could wipe out 250 points from 440 point loss of Wednesday, thanks to Tech and Power stocks.

  • BSE Breadth 1240 Adv-1397 Dec NSE Breadth 600 Adv-591 Dec Upper Circuit - 109 Lower Circuit – 165

  • BSE Vol Rs 6172 Cr NSE Vol Rs 16002 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 51017 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 1418 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 570 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 1035 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 402 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 38599 Cr and Options is 18642 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $875.50/oz Nymex Crude $127.79/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.99

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – NIIT Tech, RelCap, ONGC, NIIT, Chambal, Ranbaxy

  • Bearish build-up – Renuka, BPCL, BankIndia, Educomp, DLF, Aptech, Reliance, BHEL, RPower, LT,

  • Indian Volatility Index 30.32 (+1.68%)

  • OI 68940 Cr (+2547 Cr) Nifty OI down 3% PCR 1.64 (from 1.59)

  • A lot of short covering happened in Nifty looking at OI and other parameters. Reliance added a lot of short positions and the stock is really weighing down on the indices. If it hadn’t been for ONGC, we would not have got such a great intraday pullback. The bounce can take us towards 4740 and 4800. The SL can be 4590 for the same.

Outlook for 6 June, 2008:-

  • Markets to open gap-up on the back of big rally from US markets. Early rally can take us towards 16000 on the Sensex.

  • RBI governor has hinted about CRR hike yesterday, so banks may see selling pressure from higher levels.

  • We have made a triple bottom on the Sensex at 15300 and therefore any closing below 15300 now will be very negative. Until that one should play on the long side more than short side. But it is advisable not to take leveraged positions home going into the weekend.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Mahindra Life (607):- The stock can target 665-670 levels. Buy with SL 565.

Alok Industries (59.80):- 58 is where Alok is taking support and one should buy with that SL for target of 66-68.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Thursday, June 05, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 5 JUNE, 2008


NIFTY (4585 -130 pts)

Supp 4540/4500/4470 Res 4630/4690/4730

We have closed below 4625 support and January low of 4448 looks to get broken now. A bounce from around current levels is not ruled out but still one should not dedicate much for longs.


SENSEX (15514 -447 pts)

Supp 15300/15130/14800 Res 15650/15780/15890


Review of the previous session:-

  • Markets were flattish in the first half but got sold off quickly as fuel price hike was announced. Though the hike was expected, the spiraling effect of it on inflation gave way to big selling from FIIs. All the sectoral indices were in the red on the BSE. 49 out of 50 Nifty stocks ended negative.

  • BSE Breadth 676 Adv-1967 Dec NSE Breadth 198 Adv-1013 Dec Upper Circuit - 94 Lower Circuit – 226

  • BSE Vol Rs 6461 Cr NSE Vol Rs 14186 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 48378 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 1198 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 419 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 82 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 225 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37573 Cr and Options is 17377 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $883.80/oz Nymex Crude $122.30/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.78

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – ONGC

  • Bearish build-up – LITL, Bombay Dyeing, Sesa, BPCL, RPower, CAIRN, BHEL, Tata Tea, Reliance, IDFC, IVRCL Infra, Hero Honda, Hind Petro

  • Indian Volatility Index 29.82 (+4.67%)

  • OI 66392 Cr (+342 Cr) Nifty OI up 3% PCR 1.59 (from 1.67)

Outlook for 5 June, 2008:-

  • 15300 is next good support for the Sensex and it may get tested in early fall today. But it is not advisable to average losses as correction may continue once some bounce or consolidation has taken place.

  • It is very difficult to trade in a bear market and what we are witnessing is no less than it. Going long doesn’t earn much and going short needs help of F&O many times. So it is a bad situation for market players who are not used to shorting. Especially investors suffer in this phase as their portfolios show negative returns and averaging also doesn’t make sense. Everybody can not get out at rallies and get in quickly when stocks fall. But if good times are over, bad times will also be over some day. These times may not be good for earning but when the tide turns bullish; returns will be fast and big. So waiting is the best thing that one can do at this point in time. The analyst may be right or wrong in his reading of the market, but more important is to protect the capital. There is proverb in Hindi “Bachenge to aur bhi ladenge” and “Sir salaamat to pagadi pachaas” both of which mean, save yourself to fight more.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No picks


http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/




Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 4 JUNE, 2008


NIFTY (4715 -24 pts)

Supp 4670/4630/4540 Res 4755/4790/4835


SENSEX (15962 -100 pts)

Supp 15805/15570/15300 Res 16000/16180/16320

Sensex has good support around 15570 and 15300 levels.


Review of the previous session:-

  • It was a sharp down opening but stocks recovered from early lows as Reliance led the way with Cement stocks. Power stocks lost the most as Reliance Infra, Power Grid and Tata Power were top losers on the Nifty. Though it was a small recovery, we could not trade positively the whole day and Sensex closed below 16000.

  • BSE Breadth 847 Adv-1818 Dec NSE Breadth 347 Adv-862 Dec Upper Circuit - 89 Lower Circuit – 194

  • BSE Vol Rs 5252 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13020 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 40448 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 1020 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 262 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 1394 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 96 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 38476 Cr and Options is 17267 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $885.50/oz Nymex Crude $127.76/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.58

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – Essar Oil, Praj, ACC, CAIRN, Ranbaxy, Divi

  • Bearish build-up – Sesa, Maruti, RelCap, Sterlite Ind, JPAsso, IVRCL Infra, Tata Tea, PowerGrid, Dena, Union, Neyveli, SCI, Balrampur

  • Indian Volatility Index 28.49 (-3.39%)

  • OI 66050 Cr (+2670 Cr) Nifty OI up 5% PCR 1.67 (from 1.70)

  • Increasing shorts in Nifty with PCR high at around 1.67 may give way to some bounce in Nifty. Though it looks like many shorts are building up, bottom fishing is still not advised.

Outlook for 4 June, 2008:-

  • Sensex opening above 16000 will be positive and good recovery can be seen. This is a good place for bounce but one should be selective while buying.

  • Nifty should not break yesterday’s lower levels of 4630. 4770 to provide intraday support and recovery towards 4755 is possible.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Suzlon (258):- The stock may retrace towards 280-285 levels. Buy with SL of 247.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

Alok Textiles (61.55):- Alok has the largest textile processing capacity in India and has impressive clientele like Wal-mart, GAP and JC Penny. Recently Alok has entered into real estate also and they are planning to develop SEZs. They intend to roll out 500 retail stores by FY10. The stock is cheaply priced around 61 and one should accumulate the stock for long-term.


http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/



Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 3 JUNE, 2008


NIFTY (4739 -131 pts)

Supp 4700/4630/4500 Res 4790/4825/4865


SENSEX (16063 -352 pts)

Supp 15840/15570/15300 Res 16150/16260/16390


Review of the previous session:-

  • Stocks hit new weekly lows after PM Manmohan Singh made it amply clear that a hike in fuel price is inevitable. Realty, Banking, Power, Metals were major losers. Only Auto index on the BSE could remain in the positive territory after good monthly sales figures from Maruti. Sensex did go below 16000 levels but managed to close above that.

  • BSE Breadth 600 Adv-2066 Dec NSE Breadth 196 Adv-1024 Dec Upper Circuit - 98 Lower Circuit – 235

  • BSE Vol Rs 4809 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11826 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 35257 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 349 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 9 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 923 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 390 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 36853 Cr and Options is 16184 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $896.90/oz Nymex Crude $127.76/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.32

Outlook for 3 June, 2008:-

  • Markets to open negative on weak global cues. One should wait and not try to bottom-fish. A rising market has little resistance and similarly, a falling market has little support. Market has to stabilize and until that happens, correction is going to continue. Sensex may test next support around 15550-15600 levels.

  • 15300 can be considered as very crucial level. Close below that should indicate move below March lows around 14600 in near future.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks


Results Today (3 June):- EIL, DLF


LEFT is not RIGHT: - Last week when fuel price hikes were being considered, Left parties demanded a windfall tax on private oil companies. Politics is more related to personal economics than national economics. All know that just a small raid on some politicians can bring out so much money that all oil company losses will be recovered, why to hike fuel prices then? Well, that will never happen but realistically what we know that fuel price hike is imminent. Now our PM has also accepted that the rising subsidy bill cannot be tolerated forever, there is a need to increase prices. Oil rally towards $135 may be a bubble, but even a fall of $15-20 in crude is not going to make things so easy. Rising deficits because of oil imports can have a negative impact on GDP and we never know when we will give back a percentage or two of growth of GDP. That picture may be harmful from market perspective. So the earlier they increase prices, the better for our economy.


http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/



Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Monday, June 02, 2008

DAILY REPORT FOR 2 JUNE, 2008


NIFTY (1540 +35 pts)

Supp 4830/4800/4750 Res 4910/4940/4985


SENSEX (16415 +99 pts)

Supp 16300/16210/15950 Res 16560/16670/16735


Review of the previous session:-

  • After hitting 4910 in early trade, Nifty remained in a narrow range between 4880-4850 for the whole day. Pharma, IT and Capital goods were major gainers. Fall was arrested as the Centre revised upwards its estimate of growth in GDP for 2007-08 to 9% from 8.7% earlier.

  • BSE Breadth 1008 Adv-1701 Dec NSE Breadth 419 Adv-777 Dec Upper Circuit - 118 Lower Circuit – 163

  • BSE Vol Rs 5514 Cr NSE Vol Rs 14953 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 35883 Cr

  • FIIs bought Rs 106 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 729 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 31 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 364 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37453 Cr and Options is 15474 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $891.50/oz Nymex Crude $127.35/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.16

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – AIA, Dr Reddy, Ranbaxy, TCS, Praj, Infosys, Ster, Guj Alk, Sesa, HDFC Bank, IVRCL Infra, LT, Mcdowell, Jindal Steel

  • Bearish build-up – JP Asso, OBC, Rolta, RelCap, RIL, Unitech

  • Indian Volatility Index 26.68 (-4.99%)

  • OI 62326 Cr (+3816 Cr) Nifty OI up 2% PCR 1.86 (from 2.08)

Outlook for 2 June, 2008:-

  • Sensex is expected to remain in the range of 16650-16200. Break of 16200 should give way to more correction. Until that happens, stock-specific movement will continue.

  • Nifty faces stiff resistance around 4980 to 5030 levels and any bounce may face selling pressure from these levels. Short-covering in banks is not ruled out.

  • Reliance Industries is a weak stock and it may fall more. So one should avoid bottom-fishing in it for time being.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Orchid Chem (241):- Go short around 246-250 SL 262 and target 224

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

TNPL (101):- Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Ltd is the world’s largest bagasse-based paper mill with 180,000 tonnes capacity. The company also plans to foray into Cement production and set up IT Park with their surplus land. As the company is using captive wind power, it is eligible for Carbon Credits also. It’s a regular dividend paying company and the dividend yield comes out around 4% at CMP. One should accumulate the stock for 20-30% returns in 12-16 month period.


Results Today (2 June):- Motherson, McLeod Russ, Educomp, Adhunik Met, PVR


India to Consider Ban on Iron Ore Exports, Press Trust Reports http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aB01lokQe2N4&refer=india

Sesa Goa is India’s largest iron ore exporter and that stock may see some selling pressure on the back of this news.


http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/



Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.