Tuesday, August 12, 2008


NIFTY (4620 +91 pts)

Supp 4580/4510/4460 Res 4655/4700/4745

SENSEX (15503 +336 pts)

Supp 15370/15225/14880 Res 15600/15790/15900

Review of the previous session:-

  • Sensex opened very strong and breadth was also positive. Realty and Banking stocks surged on hopes that falling crude can help bring down interest rates. Construction stocks gained as Cement and Steel prices are unlikely to rise in immediate future.

  • Though it was a buoyant opening, no follow-up buying was seen as Sensex moved in a narrow range after the opening leap.

  • BSE Breadth 1738 Adv-970 Dec NSE Breadth 852 Adv-369 Dec Upper Circuit -232 Lower Circuit –109

  • BSE Vol Rs 5497 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12437 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 39699 Cr

  • FIIs bought Rs 280 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 505 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 444 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 27 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 34552 Cr and Options is 21148 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $828.30/oz Nymex Crude $114.45/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Long build-up – IndianBank, HDIL, OBC, BEML, CanBk, Crompton, Minifty, RelInfra, PatelEng, DCB, BRFL

  • Short build-up – Dr Reddy, BEL, GE Ship, TCS, Ster, Tata Steel

  • OI 77162 Cr (+4141 Cr) Nifty OI Up 5% PCR 1.37 (from 1.32)

  • Private bank rally was fueled by short-covering yesterday. Nifty too added long OI but PCR also inched up indicating more put addition.

Outlook for 12 August, 2008:-

  • Though we moved up 336 points yesterday, the intraday range was of just 153 points. Indices could not post aggressive gains after the opening buoyancy.

  • Markets to open flat to negative. Nifty can face resistance around 4650-4680 levels. Closing today can be with small change after 5 consecutive days of rally.

  • The risk-reward ratio is not favourable for longs right now as we move closer to 16000 levels. Investors can wait for some correction to enter. Traders have everyday for playing but investors have to buy value which can emerge only after some correction.

  • Aggressive longs can be avoided as this week’s closing is expected to be flat.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

KPIT Infosys (65.75):- It is a breakout and now it can target 76-78 levels. Buy with SL 61

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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