Thursday, December 14, 2006

DAILY REPORT FOR 14 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3717 High 3778 Low 3658 Close 3765

Supp 3810/3850/3905 Res 3730/3690/3650

SENSEX: - Open 13011 High 13223 Low 12830 Close 13181

Supp 13070/12930/12800 Res 13275/13330/13470

What happened on Wednesday:-

Market was very volatile yesterday as both bulls and bears tried to prove their existence. But it was bulls who won in later trading hours and we managed to close 185 points up on the sensex after 3 very bad down days.

Nifty Gainers:- RCom, Zee tele, Siemens

Losers :- GAIL, SAIL, Hind Lever, ONGC

What shall we witness on Thursday:-

It was good to see a bounce back yesterday. It should continue today as well. But what is more important is that we should spend some time at these levels and regain lost strength. Banking was the beaten-down sector in the recent fall. They participated in the rally yesterday. Now Auto and Metals should contribute so that we will know that buying is coming back to those sectors as well. As the sell-off was very sharp, supply at higher levels is always a possibility.


Catch them falling:-

SAIL(81) has good support at 78-79 levels and if it is able to sustain above these levels, we may see above 90-95 levels soon.

Wipro(555) has corrected well from peak of 605 and can target 590-600 levels again.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

DAILY REPORT FOR 13 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3849 High 3861 Low 3662 Close 3717

P/E 19.91 P/B 4.75 Adv 2 Dec 48 Vol Rs 11085.28 Cr

EMA20 3904 EMA50 3795 EMA100 3630

Supp 3690/3650/3490 Res 3750/3795/3830

SENSEX: - Open 13414 High 13492 Low 12802 Close 12995

EMA20 13564 EMA50 13153 EMA100 12529

Supp 12900/12715/12560 Res 13100/13230/13490

What happened on Tuesday:-

We opened flat and remained sideways up to mid-hours. But huge selling brought the markets to below 13000 levels. We touched 12802 and closed just below 13000. Provisional Figure for FIIs for yesterday was also net buy of Rs 258 Cr. There were just 2 nominal gainers on the Nifty like Dabur and GAIL. Fall was massive in Orient Bank, ABB, Grasim.

What shall we witness on Wednesday:-

We have lost around 1200 points in last 3 days and if we go by Institutional figures, we can clearly see that major selling was done by Mutual Funds. They sold around Rs 602 Cr on 11-Dec-2006. Now for today we should see some sharp bounce. And this bounce can even be sharper than the fall but after that also we may spend some time here and then start new moves up. We look forward to Advance Tax figures, Budget from here. Also we will be getting 3rd Quarter results in January. So things are getting extremely interesting now.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Stock market requires commitment both in terms of money and mind.


DAILY REPORT FOR 12 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3962 High 3965 Low 3798 Close 3850

Supp 3795/3770/3735 Res 3873/3925/3946


SENSEX: - Open 13783 High 13802 Low 13262 Close 13399

Supp 13200-170/12950/12670 Res 13490/13580/13720


What happened on Monday:-

We opened a bit down and went to lows around 1 pm yesterday. There were no gainers on Nifty. All 50 stocks were down yesterday. It was a Manic Monday Mayhem. But the notable thing is that FIIs didn’t sell much yesterday. RBI’s move of raising CRR was reacted in an exaggerated way. Banks did most of the damage as they were torn apart by market players and we saw a 7% fall on Bank Nifty. PNB, SBI,ICICI each lost 7%. Other losers were Zee, Tisco. They too lost 6% each.


What shall we witness on Tuesday:-

When we got the provisional figure, it was Rs 334 Cr net buys. And if we are to go by that figure, we have to believe that yesterday’s selling pressure was peculiarly from the weak players in the market. They buy in Futures and Options or they buy on margin funding. Such people will never make money in this market. Stock market requires commitment both in terms of money and mind. We have to understand that we have to buy in cash and then play this game. Derivatives and Margin funding are played on leverage and borrowed money. And that is never a way to earn money in this market. If anybody wants to earn some serious and consistent money, one has to buy in cash and not through any kind of leverage. In the long run, cash-buyers are only going to survive and not any leveraged players.

Now in this fall, we still held 3795 which was the previous swing point of Nifty and on Sensex also 13200 is a major support which has not been broken. The bullish outlook gets confirmed by looking at these factors. So we can still buy good stocks.

If we suppose CRR raise as a bad news, we cannot ignore good news such as Infosys getting added to NASDAQ100 and Indo-US Nuke deal going through. Sometimes good news gets neglected because of overwhelming response to some bad news but market has a habit of discounting each and every news and good news will be discounted when we do bottom out.

Bottom fishers can look at ONGC, Hero Honda, Reliance for sharp reversals.

Catch them falling :-

TISCO has come down around 17% from recent top around 548 levels and we can invest in it. There has been lot of hoo-hah about the Corus deal and we may see stability in the stock as and when this matter gets over. We should get returns in excess of 15% in this counter.


Dr Reddys Labs is one stock where we should invest and this stock has a lot of potential to reach 850-900 levels.

L&T has got many big orders in the recent past and the stock can be bought for investment purposes. The stock can target 1600-1650 levels soon.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Monday, December 11, 2006

DAILY REPORT FOR 11 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 4016 High 4047 Low 3949 Close 3962

Supp 3945/3928/3910 Res 3985/3996/4025

SENSEX: - Open 14008 High 14010 Low 13757 Close 13799

Supp 13690-13720/13570/ Res 13860/13910/13960

What happened on Friday:-

Markets opened flat, but we didn’t gain much on the index. Markets witnessed consistent selling the whole day as we didn’t recover well during the day and kept going down. FIIs have turned sellers from last 2 days (8th Dec, Provisional Figure is 204 Cr Net Selling). The sell-off was led by Zee, Tata motors, Satyam comp and Hind Lever. Exceptional gainers were Rel Energy, Dr Reddy. US Market cues are flat.

What shall we witness on Monday:-

RBI has upped the CRR rates. This move is aimed at preventing excess liquidity from fuelling overheating of the economy. Real estate prices are also rising very rapidly. So these 2 factors can affect the economy somewhat. But for gaining in the stock market, we have to buy good investment ideas and then only we will be able to reap the real benefits of the stock market.

Where’s the money:-

Itc(185):- Buy with SL of 182 and target 187/190

Bajaj Hind(255):- Buy with SL 244 and target 275-280


Catch them falling :-

This is a new section and here investment ideas will be written. These stocks can be added in panic times to your investment portfolios. Investments ideas can be for long term, medium term.

Reliance is one stock which looks good on charts and can be accumulated even if it corrects by another 50-60 rupees. This stock can give 20-25% returns in 4-5 months.


BEML is a stock which can perform in a slightly longer duration. The stock benefits a bit from the just-completed Indo-US Nuclear Deal. The stock has corrected from 1700 odd levels to below 1000 now and can give handsome returns if we look at it from investing view.

Friday, December 08, 2006

DAILY REPORT FOR 8 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 4015 High 4028 Low 4001 Close 4015

Supp 3998/3980/3970 Res 4030/4044/4066


SENSEX: - Open 13963 High 14003 Low 13916 Close 13972

Supp 13910/13870/13800 Res 14020/14070/14130


What happened yesterday:-

Markets opened flat, then went down a bit and again we pulled back. But we remained above 4000 the whole day. And it was the first day that we remained above 4000 on the nifty. ABB, Zee, Hindalco, Siemens were top gainers on the Nifty whereas Hero Honda, Hind Petro, GAIL lost some ground.

What shall we witness on Friday:-

The indices are just moving in a tight range and we will see a breakout in one direction very soon. Reliance and ONGC are looking good on charts. Automobile stocks are also looking good. Power stocks have started performing. Metals have also started up waves. So a bullish breakout is a strong possibility today. Even if markets are looking flat, good stocks are performing. We should buy good investment stocks and wealth will follow. By Dec 15, the Advance tax figure should come out and that should be the trigger for the next move.

Where’s the money:-

Alstom Projects(457):- The stock has given a new all-time high of 484 just 4 days back. It hasn’t been able to sustain 480 up till now. But it has a target of around 530-540 which hasn’t been achieved yet. Today a Buy is recommended. Support levels are 445 and crucial supp 434.

Hero Honda(750):- Buy with SL 740 and target 756/766.

Hind Lever(240):- This stock is near a breakout and can reach 248-252 most probably next week.

Siemens(1186):- It looks like bottomed out and should target 1300 around next week.

Bata(205):- The stock can target 235-240 levels in short term.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Thursday, December 07, 2006

DAILY REPORT FOR 7 DECEMBER, 2006


NIFTY
: - Open 4016 High 4036 Low 3983 Close 4016

Supp 3990/3972/3960 Res 4038/4056/4088

SENSEX: - Open 13951 High 14035 Low 13847 Close 13949

Supp 13830/13750/13660 Res 14050/14130/14230

What happened yesterday:-

Markets opened strong but didn’t sustain stated resistance at 4035 and came down to test levels below 4000. But we didn’t break 3980 yesterday and that should be good sign as far as uptrend is concerned. There were some meager gainers on the Nifty like Ranbaxy, BHEL, Hindalco. But the rise in any of those wasn’t great. Suzlon lost 4 %, PNB, Hind Petro lost more than 2%. We opened at 4016 and closed at the same level with some intraday volatility.

What shall we witness on Thursday:-

Today global cues are a bit flat. Our markets will have stock-specific action. Stocks like ONGC, IPCL, Glaxo, Tisco look good on charts and can perform well. People should concentrate on stocks more than on indices.

Where’s the money:-

Bajaj Auto(2711):- Buy with SL of 2675 for target of 2745/2780.

ONGC(866):- The stock will break-out above 875 and it can be bought for targt around 895-905.

Glaxo(1201):- The stock looks like a break-out and we can buy that for target above 1300.

MPhasis BFL(255):- The stock has good support at 247 and 235. it can be bought in declines with SL below 230 and target 270-275 and 300.


Disclaimer
: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

DAILY REPORT FOR 6 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 4001 High 4033 Low 4001 Close 4016

Supp 4000/3980/3962 Res 4035/4050/4066


SENSEX: - Open 14028 High 14028 Low 13906 Close 13938

Supp 13880/13830/13760 Res 13995/14070/14144


What happened on Tuesday:-

Markets opened very strong on positive global cues and remained in the green the whole day. Sensex touched the psychological mark and a milestone 14000 yesterday first time in the history of Indian Stock markets. TISCO did very well yesterday with a 5% gain. Other gainers were Jet Airways, RCOM and IPCL. Zee Telefilms lost more than 3%. Tata power, Guj Amb Cem were other losers on Nifty.


What shall we witness on Wednesday:-

The rally should continue as long as we remain above 4000. Metal stocks look interesting. Nalco, SAIL, TISCO can give good returns in short term.


Where’s the money:-

Tisco(493):- The stock has lowest P/E in Sensex stocks. Some serious value buying must have emerged during yesterday’s trading. On charts also the stock looks good. It can be bought for target around 550-560 in short term. Investors looking for value can also buy.


Hind Petro(291):- The stock should target 310-315 levels in next 4-5 trading sessions. SL can be kept around 280.

Thermax(393):- It looks like this stock has broken out on charts. It can target 425-440 levels. SL can be kept around 369.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 5 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 4002 High 4015 Low 3992 Close 4001

Supp 3988/3974/3960 Res 4016/4028/4035


SENSEX
: - Open 13847 High 13913 Low 13829 Close 13874

Supp 13825/13780/13740 Res 13920/13960/13995

What happened on Monday:-

Markets opened firm but stayed almost sideways the whole day for lack of strong buying in heavyweight stocks. Finally we finished 29 pts up on Sensex. There were some smart movers like Tata Motors, ACC. They gained 4 % each. Other major gainers on Nifty were PNB, L&T and BHEL. Jet Airways, HDFC Bank, Satyam computers lost some ground. We closed above 4000 for the first time ever in Nifty.

What shall we witness on Tuesday:-

Index heavyweight stocks like Reliance and SBI didn’t see much activity yesterday and that is why we saw markets trading in a narrow range. Global Cues are good. US Markets closed very positively yesterday. So we should have strong opening in our markets. IT, Banking stocks and auto stocks have done their bit and now it should be turn of other heavyweights like Reliance, ONGC, ITC to catch up in the rally. If they perform, we will see index going to new highs. We will see new highs if we sustain above 4003 today. From banking sector, Bank of Baroda has performed well and it looks like we can book some profits in that.Sugar stocks have fallen very sharply in last 1-2 months. They look like bottoming out on charts.


Where’s the money:-

Dishman Pharma(231):- The stock breaks out above 235 and can target 260-265 in 3-4 days. Support exists at 228.

Tata Tea(754):- Buy around 745 with SL below 732 and target 780-785.

L&T (1420):- The stock looks very good on charts. It can target 1550-1600 levels in short term.

Bharti Shipyard(319):- The stock looks like bottoming out and we can buy for short term. Target should be 354-362. Stop loss can be kept below 310.

MPhasis BFL(267):- Buy with SL below 254 and target 279/292. It can target the said levels in 1-2 weeks time.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

DAILY REPORT FOR 4 DECEMBER, 2006


NIFTY
: - Open 3956 High 4001 Low 3954 Close 3998

Supp 3980/3965/3955 Res 4016/4034/4060


SENSEX: - Open 13730 High 13858 Low 13726 Close 13845

Supp 13800/13750/13670 Res 13895/940/14030

What happened on Friday:-

Markets opened up and there was consistent buying the whole day. Power stocks were major gainers of the day as ABB, Siemens gained above 4% each. Other gainers were Auto stocks. Hero Honda, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto gained sharply. Top losers on Nifty were SAIL, Grasim, TCS. But they didn’t lose much in value, just fell around 1 % each. The benchmark S&P CNX Nifty touched a historical 4000 mark on Friday.


What shall we witness on Monday:-

In a bull market, you don’t require an analyst and in a bear market, there is no need. When new stocks perform and new sectors participate in rallies, the indices tend to show more strength. Auto stocks underperformed for some days but now they look like catching up. Also power stocks exhibited great strength. Such kind of buying can take Nifty above 4000 this week. Sensex above 14000 is also a possibility.


Where’s the money:-

Bharat Forge(364):- Buy with SL of 357 and target of 375-78.

Tata Chemicals(220):- Buy for short term with SL below 215 and target 238-242.

Tata Tea(726):- Support 720 Buy with SL of 702 and target 753 and 785

TVS Motors(99):- The stock looks good from Investment as well as short term trading perspective. For short term, buy with SL of 95 and target 110-114.

Bajaj Auto(2744):- It looks like the stock can give 100 rupee upside from this level too in next 4-5 days. Buy with Stop Loss as per risk appetite.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.


Friday, December 01, 2006

DAILY REPORT FOR 1 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3929 High 3973 Low 3929 Close 3955

Supp 3930/3905/3885 Res 3980/3998/4020


SENSEX: - Open 13631 High 13745 Low 13631 Close 13696

Supp 13630/13560/13520 Res 13750/13820/13870


What happened Yesterday:-

Markets opened very strong as expected but there wasn’t much activity intraday. The major indices tested lows around 2.15 pm but recovered in ending hours due to short covering and ended up 26 points on Nifty. GAIL was the highest gainer on Nifty. It gained 4% and saw good buying at closing hours. Other gainers were HDFCBank and tech stocks like TCS, Wipro. Hind Petro, Ranbaxy, BPCL were losers on the Nifty.


What shall we witness on Friday:-

We have come out of F&O pressures for November month and now we should look forward to December series into which good roll-over has already taken place. Now we should see exactly what lies ahead as we won’t have repercussions of F&O unwinding. Sensex and Nifty are not participating in good rallies even if global markets are performing well from last 2 days. That may be a cause of concern on the index front but stock-specific action will continue. Cash stocks should see good action as people having nifty-based positions may shift to cash stocks on account of uncertainty about the Index. Being stock-specific is advised.
Stocks like Ceat, Aurobindo Pharma, Thermax, Larsen & Toubro look good.


Where’s the money:-

BHEL(2506):- Support 2490 Buy with SL 2468 for target of 2530/2550.

Ceat(128):- Buy given around 120 last week for target of 140. Now after reaching target of 140, it has corrected to 126. Here we can buy again with SL of 117 for target of 158-162. Mid term target can be around 180 also.

Thermax(381):- Buy for target of 410/450 Support 373/365

Atul(132):- Buy with SL of 122 and target 155-160.

NTPC(147):- Buy with SL 144 for target of 149/152


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.