TANMAY OBSERVES!

DAILY REPORT FOR 14 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4529 -23 pts)

Supp 4595/4450/4400 Res 4588/4620/4665

SENSEX (15093 -119 pts)

Supp 14870/14720/14570 Res 15250/15360/15520

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices opened negative but quickly recovered into the green, just to move lower once again in late trade. Realty and Banking stocks were major losers. Volumes were low ahead of SEBI meeting.

• Prime Minister’s EAC has projected a growth rate of 7.7% for 2008-09, lower than its earlier estimate of 8.5%. EAC expects inflation to touch 13% before cooling down.

• SEBI didn’t take any decision on P-Note issue though the board discussed the same. It cut the timeline for rights issues. The release from SEBI about the meeting can be found at this link http://www.sebi.gov.in/press/2008/1502008.html

• Inflation for the week ended Aug 2 to be announced in the evening. The WPI is expected to have risen to 12.21% Vs 12.01% announced last week, Reuter’s poll said.

• BSE Breadth 1238 Adv-1420 Dec NSE Breadth 505 Adv-702 Dec Upper Circuit -153 Lower Circuit –96

• BSE Vol Rs 5076 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12052 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 43947 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 915 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 215 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 550 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 203 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 33278 Cr and Options is 21550 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $831.50/oz Nymex Crude $116.00/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Kotak, NW18, Arvind, Polaris, McDowell, RNRL, Moser

• Short build-up – IndianBank, Tata Chem, GEShip, Tata Power, NagarConst, BajajHind, BankIndia, HCC, BHEL, ICICI Bank

• OI 77738 Cr (+604 Cr) Nifty OI Down 2% PCR 1.24 (from 1.30)

• Nifty futures saw some liquidation of longs. PCR was down indicating calls build-up. Activity was seen in Sugar stocks which saw shorts opening up.

Outlook for 14 August, 2008:-

• Nifty is breaking down slowly and break below 4450 can bring in more selling. Resistance stands at 4600 and the downside may be 4320 to 4260 levels.

• Our target for the Sensex was around 15500 which has happened and one need not play with full strength for the remaining 700-1000 points, even if they really materialize. Keeping 60-70% cash is advised as risk-reward is not favourable at these levels.

• Markets to open flat to negative. Long weekend and inflation figures can make market players remain light on positions. Banks and Realty can see more selling pressure.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

DLF (548):- The stock is looking weak and can test 475-485 levels. Closing past 580 will negate the view.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.