Tuesday, August 19, 2008


NIFTY (4393 -37 pts)

Supp 4350/4320/4260 Res 4415/4460/4510

SENSEX (14645 -78 pts)

Supp 14430/14170/14030 Res 14830/14970/15140

Review of the previous session:-

  • Indices opened flat and remained that way the whole day. It was a ranged movement all session with a small sell-off in late trade. Metal, Power and Auto stocks declined whereas Tech stocks remained bullish. Volumes dropped quite a bit as BSE did lower than Rs 4000 Cr and NSE cash too below Rs 10000 Cr.

  • The rupee fell to 43.5950/$,its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in more than 17 months, weakened by a falling stock market and some strength in the U.S. currency.

  • BSE Breadth 930 Adv-1668 Dec NSE Breadth 360 Adv-861 Dec Upper Circuit -123 Lower Circuit –144

  • BSE Vol Rs 3847 Cr NSE Vol Rs 9356 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 39680 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 475 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 128 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 32 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 24 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 32281 Cr and Options is 21330 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $803.50/oz Nymex Crude $114.00/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Long build-up – Dabur, Canbk, GTOffshore, Reliance

  • Short build-up – Triveni, BomDyeing, BankIndia, ITC, Tata Motors, Crompton, Ambuja Cem, BRFL, Renuka, BChinni, Kotak, BankNifty, RPL, Grasim

  • OI 76584 Cr (+282 Cr) Nifty OI Up 2% PCR 1.14 (from 1.15)

  • Cement and Sugar stocks saw more shorts being created. The total OI of the market is almost unchanged for the past 5 trading sessions indicating lack of fresh fund flows into the market. Rise in Nifty basis from 2 to 16 and low PCR readings around 1.14 indicate more pain in store, though a rally through short-covering is not ruled out.

Outlook for 19 August, 2008:-

  • Markets to open weak. Nifty testing 4260-4320 can give way to some rebound.

  • Volumes have dropped to a low level and in such a scenario, even small FII selling/buying can give way to wild swings, indicating a lot of volatility.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

No comments: