Thursday, August 21, 2008


NIFTY (4415 +47 pts)

Supp 4370/4315/4260 Res 4450/4500/4530

SENSEX (14678 +134 pts)

Supp 14570/14360/14170 Res 14830/15000/15120

Review of the previous session:-

  • The opening was buoyant but the gains did not hold. Realty and Metal stocks rallied to close the indices with decent gains.

  • Inflation to be announced today evening expected around 12.63% Vs 12.44% last week.

  • BSE Breadth 1666 Adv-969 Dec NSE Breadth 853 Adv-358 Dec Upper Circuit -184 Lower Circuit –103

  • BSE Vol Rs 4254 Cr NSE Vol Rs 9200 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 38567 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 447 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 205 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 405 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 391 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 34011 Cr and Options is 22640 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $814.20/oz Nymex Crude $114.53/bbl

  • NSE to start live trading in Currency futures from Aug 29. It will be for the first time even retail investors with no exposure to foreign exchange will be able to take a call on rupee's movement with dollar.

  • The Government has decided to release Rs 22,000 crore subsidy in cash to the fertiliser industry this fiscal, apart from the budgetary allocation of Rs 32,000 crore. Total fertiliser subsidy for 2008-09 is estimated to be Rs 1.19 lakh crore.

F&O observations:-

  • Long build-up – Dabur, IndiaInfo, Rolta, SunPharma, Chambal, Cipla, IDBI, BankIndia, NagarFert, TataSteel, RelInfra

  • Short build-up – Axis, Triveni, NagarConst, IndHotel, Aban, CAIRN

  • OI 80529 Cr (+2020 Cr) Nifty OI Up 1% PCR 1.09 (from 1.09)

  • Fertilizers added longs, expectedly after the subsidy announcement. Private banks saw some buying interest after the recent downtrend.

Outlook for 21 August, 2008:-

  • Market has been like a rocking chair for the last 2 days. There have been ups and downs but ultimately it is at the same place i.e. around 4380-4410. Volumes too have dropped and trading activity is drying.

  • Indices moved up yesterday after 5 down sessions. The bounce may still continue but the FII selling is not stopping and low volumes are not able to absorb it.

  • Nifty may face resistance at 4530 levels. Crude has come down from 147 to nearly $110/barrel but there has not been any rally because of this so far. There are market-talks like NSG approving the Nuke deal but all good news seem to be discounted in the prices. One would rather wait for further action. Sometimes not having a position is also a position in the market.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

1 comment:

MVP said...

hi Tanmay,
i have added your blog on my favourites last month only. pls update your blog with your views as it is solid analysis for people like me.