Tuesday, March 31, 2009

TATA POWER looks in uptrend. Buy at CMP Rs 765 SL Rs 730. The stock can reach Rs 840-850 levels in short-term.

Monday, March 30, 2009

"This is the best time to invest" - Mark Mobius
HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., sees Asia heading into a bull market.

At a time when many other fund managers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for assurance the markets won't go off another cliff, Mobius isn't hesitating.

"This is the best time to invest, when investors are nervous, pessimistic," he told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.

"Valuations now are very, very attractive," he said, noting that prices in Asia now at the same level as during the Asian financial crisis. Asian equities are now trading below 10 times projected earnings; by comparison, Asian stocks were trading between 15 and 18 times earnings a year ago.

Already, prices have gone up, he noted. China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A and B shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange is up nearly 30% so far this year, while the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, is up almost 9%. Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-stock Sensitive Index is up 4% since the beginning of the year. Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index is still down for the year but has creeped up 8% in the last month.

Mobius, who also likes Latin America, notes that Asia stands apart because of its fast growth, strong corporate balance sheets, and strong government spending.

"The fastest economies are in Asian markets...that economic growth is going to be reflected in stock markets as we go forward," he said. "Asian countries also have pretty good foreign reserves they can use for developing their countries and domestic market." he added.

Within Asia, Mobius has been bullish on China for quite some time. China's government has announced stimulus spending totaling almost US$600 billion in sectors such as transport infrastructure and power, public housing, post earthquake reconstruction and rural infrastructure. Thus far, China's stimulus actions seems to be quite successful, he said, noting strong credit growth and continued improvement in China's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) over the last few months. Mobius expects the Chinese economy to grow between 7% and 8% this year.

At the moment, some of his top picks in the populous country include China Mobile Ltd. (CHL) and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (1398.HK), China's biggest bank by assets.

China Mobile, one of the world's largest telecommunications companies, is China's largest mobile operator by subscribers, Mobius said. Average revenue per user is declining as the company moves into more rural areas, but the company is planning to sell more products as more customers sign on for third-generation and fourth-generation wireless technology.

Scale is also an advantage for ICBC, one of China's top banks. Chinese banks in general are doing far better than western financial institutions, Mobius said. Some Chinese banks may hold back on dividends in the current climate, but they have good capital and are increasing their lending activity. Results might not be seen immediately but "down the road we'll see very good results," he said. ICBC has a very extensive retail network which means their cost of funds is low, he noted, adding that he also likes the bank's management.

In the greater China region, Mobius also likes Taiwanese technology firms such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (2330.TW). Mobius said he likes the company because it is a well-run fabless chip maker, in a position to benefit from a recovery in consumer spending next year.

Other areas Mobius is eyeing include banks and cement companies in Thailand, and information technology companies in India such as Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (532440.BY) and Infotech Enterprises Ltd. (532175.BY)

To be sure, Mobius expects Asian markets to "bounce around for a while" but he expects markets to finish up at the end of the year when the economic climate is clearer.

"The key going forward is money supply...once that money gets to investors, once they start lending again, then you will see a real change and that money will find a home." (Source: DJ)

Sunday, March 29, 2009

The Tata Nano

The new people's car

Mar 26th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Why the Nano alone cannot solve the mounting problems of its maker

IS THE Tata Nano the car the world has been waiting for, its launch this week a moment not only of automotive history but of real social significance? Or will it prove to be no more than a dazzling digression for its troubled maker? Fifteen months after its unveiling at the Delhi motor show, the cheapest and most talked-about car of modern times has gone on sale. The plainest version costs 1 lakh (100,000) rupees ($2,000), as promised by Ratan Tata (pictured above), the head of the Tata group and the driving force behind the project. At half the price of the next cheapest car on the market (the aged Maruti 800), the Nano will bring car ownership to people who would never previously have considered it. But it has not been an easy gestation.

Last October Tata Motors, India’s biggest indigenous vehicle-maker, abandoned the $292m factory that it had built in Singur, West Bengal, to make the Nano. Violent protests by farmers, stirred up by local politicians, over the state’s forced purchase of their land for the 1,000-acre site had left Tata with the choice of buying the protesters off or walking away. After much soul-searching, and having found an alternative site at Sanand in Gujarat, Mr Tata opted to start again. The decision has been costly. Some of the original investment has had to be written off and the new factory will cost $389m. Suppliers who had been setting up near the Singur operation have also had to start again.

As a result the Nano’s launch is seven months behind schedule. When Sanand opens next year it will have an annual capacity of 250,000 units, extendable to 500,000. But for the moment an existing factory at Pantnagar in northern India has been converted to produce the car at a rate of 50,000 a year. With demand expected greatly to exceed supply, the first 100,000 Nanos will be allocated by lottery.

Tata is making the best of a bad lot by asking prospective buyers to place deposits that come close to the full price of the car. Someone ordering the basic model will have to find $1,875 to place an order for a car with an on-the-road price (including taxes) of around $2,500. Anyone opting for better-kitted-out versions with air conditioning and electric windows will have to stump up nearly half as much again. For those who need credit, Tata has helpfully lined up 15 “preferred” banks and lenders.

In the rush to get their hands on the first Nanos, customers are expected to place deposits worth up to $1 billion—money Tata will hold on to for at least three months before the allocation is completed. Those wishing to be considered for the second batch of cars will be paid interest (at well below the market rate) after a year, but Tata will get to keep at least $200m interest-free while it ramps up production.

That is cash that Tata Motors could certainly do with. Ravi Kant, the firm’s boss, insists that earlier predictions that it will lose money on the Nano are wide of the mark: raw-material prices have helpfully fallen, a recent excise cut from 16% to 8% is not being passed on to customers and the majority of Nanos sold are likely to be the fancier, more profitable models. But according to Deepak Jain of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai, Tata Motors faces a funding gap this year of at least $3.4 billion. About $1.4 billion of that is in the form of short-term loans raised for working capital, and $2 billion relates to the bridging loan taken out last year to finance its $2.3 billion purchase of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), a British premium carmaker, which must be either repaid or refinanced in June.

In the last quarter of 2008 Tata Motors reported its first net loss for seven years, of $54m, as sales of medium-to-heavy commercial vehicles in India fell by nearly 60% and its share of a flat passenger-car market failed to improve, despite the launch of the well-received new Vista hatchback. During the same quarter an attempt to raise $885m through a rights issue ended up with Tata Sons, the group holding company, taking up 61% of the ordinary shares.

Tata Motors’ credit rating is also under pressure. This month Moody’s cut its rating from B1 to B3 with a negative outlook, the second cut in five months, and this week Standard & Poor’s reduced it from BB- to B+. Mr Kant expresses confidence that despite the difficult credit-market conditions Tata Motors can handle the situation. But JLR adds substantially to his difficulties. Through sheer bad luck, Tata’s purchase of JLR in June 2008 coincided with the meltdown in rich-world car markets. “We had a strong start to 2008, with record sales,” says David Smith, JLR’s chief executive, “2007 was Land Rover’s third record year, we made £327m profit, and more in the first half of 2008, so we were very profitable.”

Since then, however, sales have fallen 22% by volume despite a strong performance (albeit from a low base) by Jaguar, thanks to the success of its new XF saloon. Land Rover, the cash cow of the group for several years, has seen sales slide by a third. Since the summer, Tata has ploughed $1.2 billion of working capital into JLR, 1,800 jobs have been cut, a pay freeze has been agreed on with the unions and production has been slashed by up to 60%.

The picture is not entirely bleak at JLR. Mr Smith says that inventories have been largely run down and production will resume after Easter at 70-75% of capacity. Jaguar’s XF is winning in consumer-satisfaction surveys, and Mr Smith is confident that the new XJ luxury saloon will be launched on time in July. Meanwhile, a JLR team is working with Tata in India to source cheaper parts.

But without a recovery in its main markets, JLR will remain vulnerable. This week Mr Tata warned that JLR would not be able to carry on as it is without £500m ($730m) in loan guarantees from the British government. Mr Kant insists there is no buyer’s remorse on Tata’s part. But JLR is so big compared with the rest of the business—by next year it will contribute more than half of Tata Motors’ revenues, according to some estimates—that its fate will shape that of its Indian parent.

In a different way, the same is true of the Nano, but the risk is as much reputational as financial. Rakesh Batra of Ernst & Young India, a consultancy, says rivals are watching closely, and Tata must succeed when it comes to quality, service and the availability of parts if the Nano is not to fall flat on its pert little nose. Undaunted, Mr Kant believes that the Nano is tapping into a social and economic revolution in India. “There is a paradigm shift under way in the country,” he says. “Through the explosive growth of cellphones and television, the aspirations of rural people are converging with urban people.” He also points to India’s plan to connect every village with a population of more than 1,000 to the road network by 2010. Nor are his ambitions for the Nano limited to India. The Nano Europa, a plusher version that meets Western safety and emissions standards, will go on sale in 2011, with an American version due a year or so later. “The interest in the Nano”, he says, “is worldwide.” (Source: Economist)

Saturday, March 28, 2009

INFOSYS (Rs 1345) has broken out of consolidation and now it can reach Rs 1500 levels and more as further targets. The pattern is very bullish and one can add more of INFOSYS whenever it dips somewhat.

Infosys has no debt and sitting on $2 billion of cash. Infosys Technologies expects to find acquisition opportunities in America as it seeks to reaccelerate growth in the midst of an ongoing economic slump, co-chairman Nandan Nilekani said. http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1243273
Infosys ties up R&D with Cambrigde University http://www.domain-b.com/companies/companies_I/Infosys/20090327_infosys_ties_up.html

Friday, March 27, 2009

News Update (27-03-2009):-

  • Infosys Technologies Ltd expects to find acquisition opportunities in the US during the downturn, co-chairman Nandan Nilekani was quoted as saying on Friday. "Acquisitions will definitely be very accessible in this market from a price point of view," Nilekani told the Wall Street Journal in an interview. "If it makes sense, we'll do it."
  • India's infrastructure sector output grew 2.2 per cent in February from a year earlier, above an upwardly revised 1.5 per cent in January, government data showed on Friday. Output rose an annual 7.0 per cent in February 2008, and in the 2007/08 fiscal year it rose 5.6 per cent. The infrastructure sector accounts for 26.7 per cent of India's industrial output.
  • Indian Oil Corp said it has fixed April 28 as the record date for the transfer of shares for merger of Bongaigaon Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (BRPL) with itself.
  • OBC to slash prime lending rate by 50 bps from next month
  • BHEL said it has bagged a Rs 345-crore contract from Nuclear Power Corp (NPCIL) to manufacture steam generators for its Kakrapara Atomic Power Project in Gujarat.
  • MTNL on Friday said it has received Rs516.18 crore as tax refund for the years 2001-02 and 2003-04 from the Income-Tax Department.
  • Lupin Ltd said it has acquired a 51% stake in Multicare Pharmaceuticals Philippines Inc, marking the Indian firm’s foray into the $2.5 billion Philippines pharmaceuticals market.
  • India's foreign exchange reserves rose to $253.826 billion as on March 20, from $248.724 billion a week earlier, the central bank said in its weekly statistical supplement on Friday.
  • JSW Steel Ltd has repurchased 478 zero coupon foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) of $1,00,000 each aggregating to $47.80 million, listed on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Ltd.
  • India is likely to grow at 6.5 per cent or above in the current fiscal and in 2009-10, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia today said. "We are likely to get a growth rate less than 7 per cent... Between 6.5 and 6.7 per cent in 2008-09," Ahluwalia said at the CII convention. His statement assumes significance in the light of IMF projections that peg GDP growth at a modest 5.1%.
  • The government's tax kitty will grow bigger in the current fiscal than in 2007-08 despite the duty cuts announced due to slowing down of economy, a top finance ministry official said. "The gross revenue from direct and indirect taxes will increase nominally this year despite the sacrifices (duty cuts) we have made," Revenue Secretary P V Bhide said at the annual session of the Confederation of Indian Industry.
  • The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University has forecast normal to slightly above normal monsoon for India during June to September this year.
  • US Spending, Consumer Sentiment Up, Americans increase their spending a second month in a row even as the recession knocks down income. Personal consumption is up at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.2%. The Reuters/University of Michigan final sentiment reading for March stands at 57.3, compared with 56.3 in February.
  • Reliance Industries Ltd. (500325.BY), which expects to start producing gas from an offshore field in eastern India by mid-April, hopes to produce 10 million metric standard cubic meters a day, or MMSCMD, initially, a Reliance executive said Friday. "Honestly, we have lost time. We are trying to make up for it. We are trying to accelerate as much as we can," said P.M.S. Prasad, president and chief executive for oil and gas operations at Reliance Industries Ltd. Reliance also plans to ramp up production capacity to 80 MMSCMD by December, Prasad said.
  • Volvo said Friday that it's received orders for 260 buses in India. MAIN FACTS: - The orders include 140 Volvo 8400 buses ordered by the city of Bangalore, which already operates more than 300 Volvo buses. - Volvo has also received an order by India's states of Karnataka and Maharasthra for 120 Volvo 9400 inter-city coaches. - The buses will be assembled at Volvo Buses' plant in India. Deliveries will be made in 2009.
  • Two Fidelity Investments units sold over 3.7 million shares in Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. (526881.BY) on the Bombay Stock Exchange at an average price of INR501.83 a share, exchange data showed. Reliance Capital Trustee Co. - a unit of Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group - bought 2.4 million of these shares at an average price of INR502.50 a share, exchange data showed. The Fidelity units held a combined 4.8 million shares, or a 10.65% stake, in Financial Technologies as of Dec. 31, exchange data showed. Shares of Financial Technologies closed 8.7% higher at INR567, outperforming the broader Sensex, which ended 0.5% higher.
  • The British economy shrank 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, sharper than previously estimated, official data showed on Friday.

BHARAT ELECTRONICS (855) [BEL] is breaking out after a brief pause, next target can be 980-1000. Buy with SL of 815 on closing basis.

About Bharat Electronics:-

  • Bharat Electronics Limited is a major supplier of products and turnkey systems to the Indian Defence Services. Over the years, BEL has diversified into manufacturing many civilian products as well. Large turnkey telecommunication solutions are also being offered to civilan market. Its products and services include: Defence Communication, Radars and Sonars, Telecomm, Broadcasting Equipments and studio systems, EVM (Electronic Voting Machines), Solar Products & Systems, Turnkey Systems.
  • Exports play a key role in BEL's strategic perspective. The ranges of products and services exported have been increasing over the years. A number of international companies are using the facilities at BEL for contract manufacturing.
  • The company is the major producer of EVMs for India and with Election Commission indicating to use more automatic machines this time, BEL stands to benefit.


Thursday, March 26, 2009

Dow Jones)--After getting the cold shoulder for much of last year, Asian equities, particularly Indian and Chinese stocks, are getting a closer look from fund managers.

The global economic slowdown generally dampened enthusiasm for the region. Between rocky markets and investor redemptions, funds took shelter in cash and retreated to home markets when possible. But now there are signs the tide is turning. Managers note that prices have fallen to more attractive levels and are also encouraged by government spending plans, particularly in China.

"Our preferred region is Asia Pacific ex Japan," Douglas Cairns, investment specialist at Threadneedle Asset Management, said noting that recent Chinese government stimulus plans are having a beneficial impact. "In addition, the region's banking system is relatively sound and valuations overall have fallen significantly."

Fund managers were "slightly overweight" the region during the month of March, according to Dow Jones' monthly survey of fund managers in Asia. Weightings reflect managers' portfolio composition compared with benchmark indexes. North American stocks have carried more weight in the last six months, but Asian stocks are gaining. Among Asian stocks, China and India came out on top with fund managers "overweight" on the two.

Managers pointed out the benefits from China's investment package and various tax cuts.

"Judging from the data we've seen coming out of China recently, the package seems to be quite successful and we expect this trend to continue," said Mark Mobius, fund manager at Templeton Asset Management Ltd. Mobius noted China's strong credit growth and continued improvement in its Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) over the last few months, signaling a possible bottoming in the country's manufacturing sector.

Fund managers expect sectors such as infrastructure as well as consumer-related and commodity sectors to benefit from government-led spending.

India hasn't rolled out as much government spending - the government has introduced spending plans totaling US$26.4 billion compared with China's $588 billion - but lower prices are drawing in buyers. The Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-stock Sensitive Index is down more than 39% in the last 12 months. Similarly, the Shanghai composite index is down 36% from 12 months ago while the Hang Sent is down 37% over the same period.

"We believe valuation levels have fallen to attractive levels for medium-term investors. Forward looking price to earnings ratios...are low by historical standards," Threadneedle said, adding that dividend yields are also high relative to history, government bond yields and interest on cash.

Fund flows show that investors are also flowing back into Asia. During the week ended March 20, Asia ex-Japan equity funds took in US$409 million, most of which was underpinned by flows into regional or greater China mandates, according to Boston-based fund flow tracker EPFR Global.

Looking at other asset classes, fund managers remained upbeat on bonds but selectively. Fortis Investments, for instance, sees value in investment grade corporate bonds but believes treasury securities are too expensive.

Each month, Dow Jones Newswires surveys fund managers on portfolio weighting recommendations for the succeeding months, with most looking at a 12-month horizon. This latest survey was taken over the past 10 days. The respondents for this month's survey were Aberdeen Asset Management, Credit Agricole Asset Management, Fortis, ING Investment Management, JF Asset Management, Prudential Asset Management, Schroder Investment Management, Standard Life Investments and Threadneedle. For the survey, each participant was asked to assign recommendations to each asset class. The weightings from each fund manager were then averaged: 0 is neutral, up to +0.5 is slightly overweight, above +0.5 to +1 is overweight, above +1 is very overweight. Meanwhile, 0 to -0.5 is slightly underweight, below -0.5 to -1 is underweight, below -1 is very underweight.

              March09  Feb     Jan     Nov     Oct    Sept 
Cash          +0.25     0      +0.25   +0.50   +0.75  +0.25 
Bonds         +0.25    +0.75   +0.75    0       0     +0.50 
Equities      +0.25    +0.25   +0.50   +0.25    0     -0.50 
Commodities    0        --     -0.50   -0.75   -0.75  -0.75 
GLOBAL BONDS   March09  Feb    Jan      Nov    Oct    Sept 
Asia ex-Japan  +0.25   -0.25    0      -0.25    0      0 
Japan           0      +0.50   -0.25    0      -0.25  -0.25 
North America  -0.25    0      +0.50   +0.25    0      0 
Europe         +0.25   +0.25   +0.25   +0.50   +0.25  +0.50 
Non-Asian      +0.25   +0.25   +0.25   -0.50   -0.25  -0.25   emerging mkts 
GLOBAL EQUITIES  March09 Feb    Jan     Nov    Oct   Sept 
Asia ex-Japan    +0.25  +0.25  -0.25   +0.25    0      0 
Japan            -0.50   0     -0.25    0       0      0 
North America    +0.25  +0.25  +0.50   +0.25    0     +0.25 
Europe            0      0       0       0     -0.25  -0.25 
Non-Asian         0     -0.25  -0.50   -0.25   -0.50  -0.50 emerging mkts 
ASIAN EQUITIES   March09  Feb    Jan    Nov     Oct   Sept 
Japan            -0.50   -0.50  -0.25  -0.25   -0.25  -0.75 
China            +0.50   +1.25  +0.75   0      +0.50   0 
Hong Kong        +0.25   +0.25  +0.50  +0.75   +0.50  +0.50 
Taiwan           -0.25   -0.50  -0.50  -0.25   +0.25  -0.25 
South Korea      -0.75   -1.25  -0.50   0      +0.25  -0.50 
Singapore        +0.25   +1.00  +0.50   0       0     -0.25 
Indonesia        +0.25   +0.25  +0.25  -0.25   -0.25   0 
Philippines       0      +0.25  +0.50  -0.25   -0.50  -0.50 
Thailand         +0.25   +0.25  +0.50  -0.25   -0.25   0 
Malaysia         -0.50   -1.00  -0.50  -0.50   -0.25  -0.50 
Australia        -0.50   -1.00  -0.50  -0.50   -0.25  -0.50 
New Zealand      -0.50   -1.00  -0.75  -0.50   -0.50  -0.50 
India            +0.50   +1.00  +0.50  -0.25    0     -0.50 

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Aditya Birla Nuvo shows breakout with volumes and the stock can target 490-500 after this breakout. CMP 419 - Buy with SL 390.

Tech Mahindra has completed its base formation and shows symptoms of upside.

Tech Mahindra CMP 277 - Buy with SL of 262 for target of 320-325 in short-term.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Advance Tax Collection so far:-

The Advance Tax payments for Q4FY09 started coming in from 16 Mar, 2009 and still we have around a week for more numbers. This is a compilation of figures so far along with highlights:-

  • Q4 Adv Tax collection from 50 big corporate up 10.54% at Rs 16,252.48-crore Vs Rs 14,703.19 crore a year ago.
  • For the entire 2008-09, Adv Tax Collection from 50 big corporate up 11.36% at Rs 59,441.86 crore Vs Rs 53,378.92 crore a year ago.
  • ONGC highest tax payer in Q4 as well as entire fiscal, pays 0.48% more tax at Rs 2,102 crore in Q4, but just Rs 7,558 in the entire fiscal, down 8.99% from Rs 8,305 crore.
  • 18 out of 50 big corporate tax payers contributed less to the Government kitty this fiscal compared to Q4 payments in the last fiscal. Firms that paid less Adv Tax compared to last year - Reliance Industries, SAIL, NTPC, BHEL, ITC, GAIL, Standard Chartered Bank, HDFC, Sesa Goa, NABARD, NALCO, Infosys Technologies, Hindustan Zinc, Deutsche Bank, Corporation Bank, Maruti Udyog, MRPL and Hindalco
  • Even as many players in the banking sector paid handsome advance tax in the fourth quarter, Corporation Bank paid just Rs 2 crore against Rs 110 crore in the previous Q4.
  • Net Direct Tax collection up to March 17 this year stood at about Rs 3,12,800 crore, surpassing the net collection of Rs 3,12,202 crore last fiscal. Going by this collection trend, the Centre is well on course to exceed the revised estimate of Rs 3,45,000 crore for 2008-09.

Large payers (In Rs Crores):-


Q4 Adv Tax

% Change



















Bank India






Tata Steel






Reliance Ind


















Union Bank

































Sesa Goa



Hind Zinc





Q4 Adv Tax

% Change




Dena Bank



Tata Chem









GSK Pharma






Yes Bank



Ultratech Cemco



LIC Hsg Fin



Kotak Mah Bank






Tech Mah


Prev 0




Indus Ind












Tata Power





Prev 116



Prev 240

Tata Motors


Prev 75

(NA: Figures Not Available)

Direct tax mop-up surpasses previous fiscal’s collections http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/03/19/stories/2009031952160500.htm

Advance tax kitty up 18% http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Business/India-Business/Advance-tax-kitty-up-18/articleshow/4283370.cms

Advance tax from top 50 firms up 10.5% in Q4 http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/advance-tax50-top-firms105-in-q4/56878/on