DAILY REPORT FOR 29 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4214 -78 pts)

Supp 4185/4150/4110 Res 4265/4300/4340

SENSEX (14048 -248 pts)

Supp 14000/13750/13600 Res 14150/14340/14480

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices opened flat but slipped into the red very quickly. F&O pressure became apparent in late trade as we tested 4200 on the Nifty. Metals, capital goods and banks ended lower.

• BSE Breadth 898 Adv- 721 Dec NSE Breadth 294 Adv-929 Dec Upper Circuit -144 Lower Circuit –135

• BSE Vol Rs 4063 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13070 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 66164 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 187 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 390 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 376 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 142 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 28962 Cr and Options is 18505 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $837.20/oz Nymex Crude $115.59/bbl

• SGX Nifty Index Futures (Singapore) 4290 (+57 pts) at 8.40 am

• The annual wholesale prices index rose 12.40 percent in the 12 months to Aug. 16, below the previous week's 12.63 percent rise.

Outlook for 29 August, 2008:-

• CSO to announce Indian quarterly GDP estimate today and it can give some indication as to the pace of growth of Indian economy. First quarter results have been more or less flattish this time around, inflation is already in danger zone and now GDP figures will guide further.

• Markets to open strong on positive global sentiment but 4330 to 4360 need to be crossed for further gains. Support for the Nifty is at 4150-4160. Banks and realty may see some upside because of slight drop in inflation, but they can best be avoided for now.

• Investment pick - Exide

UTVi poll expects Q1 GDP growth at 7.9% http://tinyurl.com/6p87p7

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 28 AUGUST, 2008

YOU ALL HAVE BEEN LOYAL VISITORS TO MY BLOG, READ MY NEWSLETTERS/VIEWS, FOLLOWED THE CALLS TOO. I THANK YOU ALL FOR ALL YOUR SUPPORT. BUT FREE SERVICE CAN'T CONTINUE FOREVER AND NOW I PLAN TO START MY TECHNICAL CONSULTANCY, JUST TO SERVE YOU IN A BETTER WAY. THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED IN THE SUBSCRIPTION CAN MAIL TO tanmaygopal@gmail.com. THANKS ONCE AGAIN FOR ALL THE SUPPORT AND I HOPE THE RESPONSE WILL BE CONTINUED IN THE FUTURE.

NIFTY (4292 -45 pts)

Supp 4280/4245/4200 Res 4330/4365/4400

SENSEX (14296 -185 pts)

Supp 14130/14000/13750 Res 14380/14560/14670

Review of the previous session:-

• After opening firm, supply was seen from higher levels. Heavyweights like Reliance and ICICI Bank weighed down on the indices as we got sold off in late trade. Realty and Banking were major losers.

• BSE Breadth 1021 Adv-1583 Dec NSE Breadth 443 Adv-775 Dec Upper Circuit -144 Lower Circuit –138

• BSE Vol Rs 3701 Cr NSE Vol Rs 8769 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 47535 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 32 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 163 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 8 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 24 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 34406 Cr and Options is 24358 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $834.00/oz Nymex Crude $118.15/bbl

• India’s inflation index, WPI expected around 12.82% Vs 12.63% last week, a survey of economists said.

• Moody’s has projected that India’s economic growth would decelerate to 7.9% in the current fiscal from 9% in 2007-08, on the backdrop of rising interest rates and slow credit growth. The forecast by Moody’s on the growth of Indian economy has come just two days ahead of quarterly release of GDP data for fiscal 2008-09 by the government.

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Bajaj Auto, KSK, Educomp

• Short build-up – Opto, WelGuj, GTOffshore, MLL, Minifty, GTL Infra

• OI 83143 Cr (-251 Cr) Nifty OI Up 1% PCR 1.03 (from 1.07)

Outlook for 28 August, 2008:-

• Nifty is taking support around 4245-4280 and once this level is broken, more downside will be seen.

• Markets to open flat but being F&O expiry, some volatility is not ruled out. More selling in Realty stocks can be seen.

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 27 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4337 +2 pts)

Supp 4300/4250/4210 Res 4375/4435/4470

SENSEX (14482 +32 pts)

Supp 14280/14130/14000 Res 14650/14760/14880

Review of the previous session:-

• Markets opened negative on negative global cues but late recovery was seen led by IT, banking and auto stocks. Volumes were low and breadth was also flat.

• BSE Breadth 1199 Adv-1389 Dec NSE Breadth 511 Adv-687 Dec Upper Circuit -150 Lower Circuit –123

• BSE Vol Rs 3789 Cr NSE Vol Rs 8669 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 49779 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 572 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 276 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 8 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 24 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 34406 Cr and Options is 24358 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $828.10/oz Nymex Crude $116.27/bbl

• Indian Rupee hit 17-month low of 44.10 against the dollar and closed at 43.89.

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – CNX IT, Star, Noida, MLL, Kotak, Polaris, HDFC Bank

• Short build-up – IBRealestate, Axis, IOB, Reliance, Amtek Auto, Aban

• OI 83394 Cr (+2135 Cr) Nifty OI Up 4% PCR 1.07 (from 1.07)

• Tech stocks saw long build-up and new entrants in the F&O segment were active. FSL was a mega-mover with 22% gain in a single day. Nifty PCR still stands around danger levels of 1.00 as we move closer to the August expiry.

Outlook for 27 August, 2008:-

• It’s truly been a rocking chair for the last 3 sessions and a decisive move looks probable only after we settle this expiry on Thursday. It is better to be on sidelines in a directionless market.

• Volumes in NSE & BSE cash have gradually dropped to a large extent as we are trading around only 35-40% of January-08 volumes. FIIs are on a relentless selling spree, but being absorbed by Mutual Funds so far. In such a setting, small buy/sell orders can give way to large swings intraday, which can impact prices adversely. One would do well by keeping 60-70% cash levels, buying can be avoided as long as we don’t see any trend materializing.

• Nifty is ranged between 4450 and 4250 and a break of one level would give a trend in that direction. Stock-specific movement will be seen.

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 21 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4415 +47 pts)

Supp 4370/4315/4260 Res 4450/4500/4530

SENSEX (14678 +134 pts)

Supp 14570/14360/14170 Res 14830/15000/15120

Review of the previous session:-

• The opening was buoyant but the gains did not hold. Realty and Metal stocks rallied to close the indices with decent gains.

• Inflation to be announced today evening expected around 12.63% Vs 12.44% last week.

• BSE Breadth 1666 Adv-969 Dec NSE Breadth 853 Adv-358 Dec Upper Circuit -184 Lower Circuit –103

• BSE Vol Rs 4254 Cr NSE Vol Rs 9200 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 38567 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 447 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 205 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 405 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 391 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 34011 Cr and Options is 22640 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $814.20/oz Nymex Crude $114.53/bbl

• NSE to start live trading in Currency futures from Aug 29. It will be for the first time even retail investors with no exposure to foreign exchange will be able to take a call on rupee's movement with dollar.

• The Government has decided to release Rs 22,000 crore subsidy in cash to the fertiliser industry this fiscal, apart from the budgetary allocation of Rs 32,000 crore. Total fertiliser subsidy for 2008-09 is estimated to be Rs 1.19 lakh crore.

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Dabur, IndiaInfo, Rolta, SunPharma, Chambal, Cipla, IDBI, BankIndia, NagarFert, TataSteel, RelInfra

• Short build-up – Axis, Triveni, NagarConst, IndHotel, Aban, CAIRN

• OI 80529 Cr (+2020 Cr) Nifty OI Up 1% PCR 1.09 (from 1.09)

• Fertilizers added longs, expectedly after the subsidy announcement. Private banks saw some buying interest after the recent downtrend.

Outlook for 21 August, 2008:-

• Market has been like a rocking chair for the last 2 days. There have been ups and downs but ultimately it is at the same place i.e. around 4380-4410. Volumes too have dropped and trading activity is drying.

• Indices moved up yesterday after 5 down sessions. The bounce may still continue but the FII selling is not stopping and low volumes are not able to absorb it.

• Nifty may face resistance at 4530 levels. Crude has come down from 147 to nearly $110/barrel but there has not been any rally because of this so far. There are market-talks like NSG approving the Nuke deal but all good news seem to be discounted in the prices. One would rather wait for further action. Sometimes not having a position is also a position in the market.

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 20 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4368 -25 pts)

Supp 4320/4260/4210 Res 4400/4445/4485

SENSEX (14543 -101 pts)

Supp 14350/14170/14030 Res 14650/14880/15000

Review of the previous session:-

• Markets opened down and reached the bottom around 2 pm. But some buying emerged after Nifty tested 4320 levels to close just 25 points down.

• BSE Breadth 1107 Adv-1514 Dec NSE Breadth 453 Adv-744 Dec Upper Circuit -139 Lower Circuit –120

• BSE Vol Rs 3972 Cr NSE Vol Rs 8929 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 43426 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 716 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 14 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 1188 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 328 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 32954 Cr and Options is 21932 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $816.80/oz Nymex Crude $114.53/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Triveni, Hindalco, Bajaj Hind, BChinni, BRFL, MRPL, NagarFert, Chambal, HCC, Renuka

• Short build-up – Dabur, BankNifty, KotakBank, NagarConst, HDIL, BankIndia, Axis, PNB, RCom, Satyam, Idea, Union, BhartiAir

• OI 78508 Cr (+1924 Cr) Nifty OI Up 3% PCR 1.09 (from 1.14)

• Sugar stocks saw longs added after getting sold off for 3 sessions. Major highlight of the day was telecom sector where new shorts were created. PCR coming close to 1.00 may provide supply from higher levels.

Outlook for 20 August, 2008:-

• Indices may open flat to negative but 4320 and 4260 are good levels from where we can take support. Overall outlook still looks bearish but a small bounce is a possibility from lower levels.

• GMR Infra, HCC and Bongaigaon Ref look good for 8-10% rally.

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 19 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4393 -37 pts)

Supp 4350/4320/4260 Res 4415/4460/4510

SENSEX (14645 -78 pts)

Supp 14430/14170/14030 Res 14830/14970/15140

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices opened flat and remained that way the whole day. It was a ranged movement all session with a small sell-off in late trade. Metal, Power and Auto stocks declined whereas Tech stocks remained bullish. Volumes dropped quite a bit as BSE did lower than Rs 4000 Cr and NSE cash too below Rs 10000 Cr.

• The rupee fell to 43.5950/$,its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in more than 17 months, weakened by a falling stock market and some strength in the U.S. currency.

• BSE Breadth 930 Adv-1668 Dec NSE Breadth 360 Adv-861 Dec Upper Circuit -123 Lower Circuit –144

• BSE Vol Rs 3847 Cr NSE Vol Rs 9356 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 39680 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 475 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 128 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 32 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 24 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 32281 Cr and Options is 21330 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $803.50/oz Nymex Crude $114.00/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Dabur, Canbk, GTOffshore, Reliance

• Short build-up – Triveni, BomDyeing, BankIndia, ITC, Tata Motors, Crompton, Ambuja Cem, BRFL, Renuka, BChinni, Kotak, BankNifty, RPL, Grasim

• OI 76584 Cr (+282 Cr) Nifty OI Up 2% PCR 1.14 (from 1.15)

• Cement and Sugar stocks saw more shorts being created. The total OI of the market is almost unchanged for the past 5 trading sessions indicating lack of fresh fund flows into the market. Rise in Nifty basis from 2 to 16 and low PCR readings around 1.14 indicate more pain in store, though a rally through short-covering is not ruled out.

Outlook for 19 August, 2008:-

• Markets to open weak. Nifty testing 4260-4320 can give way to some rebound.

• Volumes have dropped to a low level and in such a scenario, even small FII selling/buying can give way to wild swings, indicating a lot of volatility.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 18 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4430 -99 pts)

Supp 4350/4320/4260 Res 4460/4510/4560

SENSEX (14724 -368 pts)

Supp 14520/14400/14170 Res 14900/15030/15130

Review of the previous session:-

• Markets opened negative as banking and realty stocks were under pressure from the word “go” ahead of the inflation figures. Sensex closed below 15000. Tech stocks were strong.

• Inflation accelerated faster than expected in early August to a new 13-year high of 12.44 percent. For the week ended Aug. 2, the WPI was above the previous week's 12.01 percent and the highest since the current series became available in 1995.

• The Cabinet approved the sixth pay commission giving a pay rise between 28 and 40% over existing basic pay for Central Govt employees. The revised pay scale is effective from Jan06 leading to more pressure on fiscal front.

• BSE Breadth 811 Adv-1849 Dec NSE Breadth 246 Adv-981 Dec Upper Circuit -129 Lower Circuit –121

• BSE Vol Rs 4882 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11018 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 43947 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 573 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 23 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 859 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 223 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 32205 Cr and Options is 21060 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $792.10/oz Nymex Crude $113.77/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Polaris, BChinni, TataPower

• Short build-up – Triveni, Renuka, JPAsso, HindPetro, IDFC, DLF, BankNifty, BRFL, SBI, LT, NTPC, Punj

• OI 76031 Cr (-1436 Cr) Nifty OI Unchanged PCR 1.15 (from 1.24)

• Sugar stocks saw more shorts building up. PCR eased indicating more pressure on bulls.

Outlook for 18 August, 2008:-

• Many stocks are showing bearish formations, so one need not hurry for buying positions. Some more downside is still probable and we can wait.

• Tech stocks can rally more but realty and banking can still be avoided because of inflationary pressures. NIIT Tech and KPIT look good on graph for intraday also. Nifty can show ranged trade, but stock-specific movement can be seen.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

NIIT Tech (118): - Buy for 145-150 with SL 107.

Reliance Ind (2276):- The stock is breaking down and one can go short around 2300-2330 for target of 2130-2150. SL 2400

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 14 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4529 -23 pts)

Supp 4595/4450/4400 Res 4588/4620/4665

SENSEX (15093 -119 pts)

Supp 14870/14720/14570 Res 15250/15360/15520

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices opened negative but quickly recovered into the green, just to move lower once again in late trade. Realty and Banking stocks were major losers. Volumes were low ahead of SEBI meeting.

• Prime Minister’s EAC has projected a growth rate of 7.7% for 2008-09, lower than its earlier estimate of 8.5%. EAC expects inflation to touch 13% before cooling down.

• SEBI didn’t take any decision on P-Note issue though the board discussed the same. It cut the timeline for rights issues. The release from SEBI about the meeting can be found at this link http://www.sebi.gov.in/press/2008/1502008.html

• Inflation for the week ended Aug 2 to be announced in the evening. The WPI is expected to have risen to 12.21% Vs 12.01% announced last week, Reuter’s poll said.

• BSE Breadth 1238 Adv-1420 Dec NSE Breadth 505 Adv-702 Dec Upper Circuit -153 Lower Circuit –96

• BSE Vol Rs 5076 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12052 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 43947 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 915 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 215 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 550 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 203 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 33278 Cr and Options is 21550 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $831.50/oz Nymex Crude $116.00/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Kotak, NW18, Arvind, Polaris, McDowell, RNRL, Moser

• Short build-up – IndianBank, Tata Chem, GEShip, Tata Power, NagarConst, BajajHind, BankIndia, HCC, BHEL, ICICI Bank

• OI 77738 Cr (+604 Cr) Nifty OI Down 2% PCR 1.24 (from 1.30)

• Nifty futures saw some liquidation of longs. PCR was down indicating calls build-up. Activity was seen in Sugar stocks which saw shorts opening up.

Outlook for 14 August, 2008:-

• Nifty is breaking down slowly and break below 4450 can bring in more selling. Resistance stands at 4600 and the downside may be 4320 to 4260 levels.

• Our target for the Sensex was around 15500 which has happened and one need not play with full strength for the remaining 700-1000 points, even if they really materialize. Keeping 60-70% cash is advised as risk-reward is not favourable at these levels.

• Markets to open flat to negative. Long weekend and inflation figures can make market players remain light on positions. Banks and Realty can see more selling pressure.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

DLF (548):- The stock is looking weak and can test 475-485 levels. Closing past 580 will negate the view.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 13 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4552 -68 pts)

Supp 4525/4460/4400 Res 4580/4630/4665

SENSEX (15212 -291 pts)

Supp 15080/14870/14570 Res 15310/15420/15580

Review of the previous session:-

• Markets opened higher but soon slipped into the red. Profit-taking was witnessed in Banking and Auto stocks as the Sensex closed down by 292 points. Metals were major draggers.

• Industrial output growth rose in line with expectations to 5.4% y-o-y in June from 4.1% in May, led by manufacturing. Both consumer and capital goods output growth rebounded.

• 39 new scrips added in the F&O segment of NSE. Prominent names include – ABG Ship, Akruti, DCHL, Everonn, GSPL, IBReal, MIC, MindTree, MLL, MonnetIspat, Opto, Sintex, Srei Infra, Thermax, Uco, Voltamp

• BSE Breadth 1100 Adv-1556 Dec NSE Breadth 392 Adv-831 Dec Upper Circuit -159 Lower Circuit –92

• BSE Vol Rs 5874 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13926 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 52461 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 687 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 7 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 766 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 212 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 33939 Cr and Options is 21286 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $814.60/oz Nymex Crude $113.01/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – ChambalFert, Jet, Crompton, IRB, Biocon, NagarFert

• Short build-up – Tata Steel, Aban, Jindal Steel, HDIL, GEShip, Axis, Kotak, Tata Chem, ICICI Bank

• OI 77133 Cr (-29 Cr) Nifty OI Down 1% PCR 1.30 (from 1.37)

Outlook for 13 August, 2008:-

• Today, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Economic Advisory Council (EAC) will present India's 'Economic Outlook 2008-09', making projections on where the economy is headed against the backdrop of rising inflation. Also SEBI board will take up the review of curbs imposed on P-Notes and KYC norms for FIIs. Finance Minister to meet PSU bankers today.

• Dow Jones closed down by 139 points as financial stocks were hit by more credit losses.

• Our markets to open weak. Nifty can test 4460 and 4400 in this fall itself. Today’s meeting of SEBI and economic outlook can dictate the further trend of the market.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

HDIL (486):- It is breaking down and one can short it for target of 435-445 with SL 525

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 12 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4620 +91 pts)

Supp 4580/4510/4460 Res 4655/4700/4745

SENSEX (15503 +336 pts)

Supp 15370/15225/14880 Res 15600/15790/15900

Review of the previous session:-

• Sensex opened very strong and breadth was also positive. Realty and Banking stocks surged on hopes that falling crude can help bring down interest rates. Construction stocks gained as Cement and Steel prices are unlikely to rise in immediate future.

• Though it was a buoyant opening, no follow-up buying was seen as Sensex moved in a narrow range after the opening leap.

• BSE Breadth 1738 Adv-970 Dec NSE Breadth 852 Adv-369 Dec Upper Circuit -232 Lower Circuit –109

• BSE Vol Rs 5497 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12437 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 39699 Cr

• FIIs bought Rs 280 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 505 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 444 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 27 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 34552 Cr and Options is 21148 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $828.30/oz Nymex Crude $114.45/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – IndianBank, HDIL, OBC, BEML, CanBk, Crompton, Minifty, RelInfra, PatelEng, DCB, BRFL

• Short build-up – Dr Reddy, BEL, GE Ship, TCS, Ster, Tata Steel

• OI 77162 Cr (+4141 Cr) Nifty OI Up 5% PCR 1.37 (from 1.32)

• Private bank rally was fueled by short-covering yesterday. Nifty too added long OI but PCR also inched up indicating more put addition.

Outlook for 12 August, 2008:-

• Though we moved up 336 points yesterday, the intraday range was of just 153 points. Indices could not post aggressive gains after the opening buoyancy.

• Markets to open flat to negative. Nifty can face resistance around 4650-4680 levels. Closing today can be with small change after 5 consecutive days of rally.

• The risk-reward ratio is not favourable for longs right now as we move closer to 16000 levels. Investors can wait for some correction to enter. Traders have everyday for playing but investors have to buy value which can emerge only after some correction.

• Aggressive longs can be avoided as this week’s closing is expected to be flat.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

KPIT Infosys (65.75):- It is a breakout and now it can target 76-78 levels. Buy with SL 61

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 11 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4529 +6 pts)

Supp 4460/4400/4350 Res 4580/4650/4680

SENSEX (15167 +50 pts)

Supp 15030/14860/14500 Res 15310/15500/15780

Review of the previous session:-

• Nifty opened down and moved towards 4460 in mid-trade but no selling was witnessed after that as we moved into positive territory. Metals, Banks and Capital Goods stocks moved up in late trade.

• BSE Breadth 1323 Adv-1405 Dec NSE Breadth 573 Adv-639 Dec Upper Circuit -214 Lower Circuit –107

• BSE Vol Rs 5432 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12533 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 47120 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 142 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 16 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 461 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 483 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 33242 Cr and Options is 20021 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $864.80/oz Nymex Crude $115.20/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – SCI, Chambal, Kotak, GNFC, RNRL, NagarFert, RelCap, Sasken, HDIL, NagarConst, LT, AptechT, Fintech, Tata Chem

• Short build-up – IndHotel, Axis, BankIndia, CAIRN, IDFC, MRPL, Voltas, BPCL, Siemens, HindPetro

• OI 73021 Cr (+2508 Cr) Nifty OI Up 3% PCR 1.32 (from 1.33)

• CAIRN has witnessed short positions and the stock looks weak. It may correct towards 210 if it can’t cross 245 levels.

Outlook for 11 August, 2008:-

• Dow Jones closed up by more than 300 points on Friday as Crude dropped by $3 to $115/barrel.

• Having consolidated for 3 trading sessions, Nifty looks to open higher today. It can breach 4600 resistance but supply from around 4680 is not ruled out.

• Next week will have SEBI meeting on KYC norms for FIIs, norms related to P-Notes and Securities Lending & Borrowing. Data will be out for IIP. India Inc has had a sluggish first quarter in FY09, many people are stuck at higher levels which can bring in overhead supply, the risk-reward ratio is heavier on the risk side and so one needs to have a cautious view at higher levels.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

S Kumars Nationwide (74):- Buy for target 88-90 with SL 67

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 8 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4523 +6 pts)

Supp 4490/4420/4360 Res 4580/4630/4680

SENSEX (15117 +43 pts)

Supp 14890/14690/14500 Res 14270/14360/14500

What one should look for before entering any trade is the Risk-Reward Ratio - is it favourable? No one will be ready to forfeit 1 rupee for a probable 1 rupee loss, reward must be Rs 2 or Rs 3 or even more for losing a rupee. We entered the market below 13000 where risk-reward was favourable. Now the expected move has happened and we have almost achieved the targets. It is advisable to take profits and wait for further clarity. Technical analysis is always about probabilities and never certainties, but the most important thing is to protect our capital. In worst case scenario, we may even drop below previous lows around 12500. So at least for time-being, we can wait for further trend.

Review of the previous session:-

• Markets moved sideways for most of the day and finally ended flat. Auto stocks performed well but other sectors were laggards. India’s wholesale price index rose 12.01% in the 12 months to July 26 against 11.98% previous week.

• BSE Breadth 1406 Adv-1284 Dec NSE Breadth 623 Adv-597 Dec Upper Circuit -214 Lower Circuit –107

• BSE Vol Rs 5691 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13057 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 49917 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 223 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 24 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 117 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 276 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 32281 Cr and Options is 19190 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $877.90/oz Nymex Crude $120.02/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – SCI, KPIT, Ansal Infra, Adlabs, GAIL, Voltas, Dr Reddy, Gitanjali, Ambuja, MTNL, TTML, Maruti, DLF

• Short build-up – Crompton, Rolta, BankIndia, DenaBank, BhartiAirtel, BHEL, GMR Infra, RCom, Renuka, ChennaiPetro, TataPower

• OI 70513 Cr (+2778 Cr) Nifty OI Up 4% PCR 1.33 (from 1.32)

Outlook for 8 August, 2008:-

• Dow Jones closed down by 224 points as AIG’s unexpected loss dragged down financial shares and Wal-Mart forecast a slower sales growth.

• The triple-digit day (08-08-08) to start negative on the back of weak global sentiment. Sensex has been resisted at 15422 and now closing past 15500 is required to give further strength. Nifty breaking 4420 can give way to further correction in days to come.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

http://tinyurl.com/638pm6 The government may impose a cap on the revenues of oil producing companies like ONGC, OIL, Reliance Industries and Cairn, if the BK Chaturvedi committee recommendations are accepted. The committee has recommended that any incremental revenues earned beyond $75 a barrel would have to be given to the government as part of subsidy-sharing in the oil sector. While public sector oil companies like ONGC and OIL will take a larger share of the subsidy bill by contributing all revenues beyond $75 a barrel to the central exchequer, private oil producers will have to fork out only 50% of their incremental earnings to the government.

http://tinyurl.com/6anvwx In a move that can have major implications for foreign institutional investors, market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India, or Sebi, is thinking of introducing know-your-customer norms for FIIs. This is in the light of the Reserve Bank of India's concern on the origin of FII money in the domestic markets. The norms relating to Participatory Notes will also be up for review.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 7 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4517 +15 pts)

Supp 4465/4425/4360 Res 4550/4600/4670

SENSEX (15073 +112 pts)

Supp 14890/14720/14500 Res 15180/15430/15550

Review of the previous session:-

• Markets opened gap-up but could not sustain the higher levels. Sensex faced resistance around 15400. Auto stocks moved up on the back of fall in Crude prices. Tech stocks were surprise gainers. But metals corrected as uncertainty over steel pricing prevailed.

• BSE Breadth 1266 Adv-1444 Dec NSE Breadth 544 Adv-685 Dec Upper Circuit -227 Lower Circuit –118

• BSE Vol Rs 7203 Cr NSE Vol Rs 18615 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 61180 Cr

• FIIs bought Rs 1815 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 804 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 2332 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 152 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 31268 Cr and Options is 18541 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $883.00/oz Nymex Crude $118.58/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Moser, Bajaj Hind, Maruti, NIIT Tech, Balrampur, Triveni, Renuka, Bharat Forge, HOEC, Wipro

• Short build-up – Tata Power, UniPhos, FinTech, Tata Steel, SunPharma, HCL Tech, HDIL, Union, SBI, PNB

• OI 67735 Cr (+2583 Cr) Nifty OI Up 3% PCR 1.32 (from 1.35)

• Tech stocks saw long build-up and stocks like TCS, Tech Mah and NIIT Tech look like getting accumulated. Tata Steel, SAIL had short build-up as they announced of no further hikes for one more month. Sugar stocks saw positive build-up yesterday but that sector always has some political element attached.

Outlook for 7 August, 2008:-

• Nifty may test 4465 before moving up further. Next 2 trading sessions can be negative for the markets. It may be a consolidation also, but one can take his profits and be in good cash levels to re-enter.

• Inflation data would be out today and it is expected to be around 12%. Interest rates have started hardening and it may hamper earnings of real estate companies. Keeping away from these stocks for some months can be good for investors.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

DLF (544):- The stock is near resistance and one can short around 555-565. Downside target can be 465-480. A closing past 580 would negate the view.

TCS (858):- Buy for target of 950-960. Buy around 845-853 SL 815

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 6 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4502 +107 pts)

Supp 4460/4410/4360 Res 4540/4600/4670

SENSEX (14961 +383 pts)

Supp 14820/14680/14500 Res 15260/15390/15580

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices were hesitant in initial trade but 2nd half was brilliant. Banks, Autos and Realty stocks rallied smartly. Sensex inched closer to the 15000 mark but could not close above it. Crude Oil corrected below $120 levels and it helped auto stocks move up sharply.

• BSE Breadth 1779 Adv-923 Dec NSE Breadth 840 Adv-384 Dec Upper Circuit -280 Lower Circuit –81

• BSE Vol Rs 6976 Cr NSE Vol Rs 17293 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 52692 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 397 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 287 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 1012 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 565 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 31690 Cr and Options is 17612 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $886.10/oz Nymex Crude $119.17/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – BomDyeing, HDIL, Minifty, REC, MahLife, IndusInd, BankNifty, DCB, PeninLand, GAIL, AptechT, HeroHonda, MoserBaer, Sobha, HindPetro, JPAsso, Tata Comm, Reliance, Unitech, Wipro, ONGC, OBC, ITC, PowerGrid, M&M

• Short build-up – Sesa, Gitanjali, Jet, Ster, Tata Power, FinTech, SterlingBio, Rolta, Tata Chem, CAIRN

• OI 65152 Cr (+4744 Cr) Nifty OI Up 2% PCR 1.35 (from 1.28)

• Major volume action was seen yesterday as after many sessions we clocked such a big turnover. OI action too didn’t lag behind. Heavyweight Stocks like Reliance and ONGC added nearly 10% OI each indicating a lot of interest in the market as well as those stocks in particular.

Outlook for 6 August, 2008:-

• Fed has kept the rates unchanged and world markets have rallied on that news. Our markets are expected to open gap-up.

• 15500-16000 can be the target for the Sensex in this move. Many of our scrips are near target and others should follow soon. Crompton, McDowell, Tata Motors, GT Offshore, Cummins and NIIT Tech have been given recently. As this is a bear market rally, we have to be quick to take profits also. One can think of profit-booking around 15500 levels.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Bartronics (179):- The stock can move quickly towards 205-210 levels. Buy with SL 165

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 5 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4395 -18 pts)

Supp 4330/4270/4230 Res 4460/4498/4540

SENSEX (14577 -78 pts)

Supp 14450/14300/14050 Res 14830/14950/15260

Review of the previous session:-

• It was a range-bound movement for the whole day. Breadth was positive. Metal and Bank stocks saw some buying interest.

• BSE Breadth 1845 Adv-805 Dec NSE Breadth 881 Adv-340 Dec Upper Circuit -294 Lower Circuit –81

• BSE Vol Rs 6008 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13531 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 43364 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 507 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 46 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 227 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 348 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 31403 Cr and Options is 16475 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $916.30/oz Nymex Crude $125.30/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Rolta, WWIL, Ranbaxy, YesBank, AlBk, EssarOil, Canbk, IndusInd, Polaris, RajeshExpo, Titan, BongaiRef, HotelLeela, SRF, MRPL, Ispat, Sesa, Bata, Cummins, DCB

• Short build-up – Crompton, CNXIT, FinTech, SterlingBio, BEL, TCS, ABirlaNuvo, Jet, NIIT, LICHsgFin, McDowell, BHEL

• OI 60407 Cr (+2234 Cr) Nifty OI Up 1% PCR 1.28 (from 1.35)

Outlook for 5 August, 2008:-

• 4330 looks like a good support for today and below that only some caution is advised. 4500 may act as major resistance on the upside

• Investors can use dips to add fundamentally strong stocks. Results season is over. A small percentage of companies have shown impressive growth whereas others have shown flat or negative growth. This was mostly due to forex losses and MTM provisions. One-time provisions in accounts don’t affect long-term growth story for the stocks. So investors have to take informed view and never hurry while picking stocks.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Tata Motors (397):- The stock has reacted from near-700 levels to below 400 in just 3 months discounting sluggish auto sector growth, tightening of credit and JLR deal. The worst looks over at current levels and the stock can slowly start upward journey. The fall in crude prices may act as a catalyst for the upside. Technically one can buy with SL 374 and target 480-490 in a month. Buy only in cash.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 4 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4413 +81 pts)

Supp 4350/4315/4270 Res 4460/4490/4540

SENSEX (14656 +300 pts)

Supp 14430/14280/14030 Res 14830/14990/15260

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices opened gap down but we recovered smartly from 4235 Nifty level. Some short covering coupled with buying gave us a very positive session in the end. Capital Goods and Power stocks were major gainers. FMCG and Auto were flat.

• BSE Breadth 1551 Adv-1108 Dec NSE Breadth 741 Adv-481 Dec Upper Circuit -239 Lower Circuit –90

• BSE Vol Rs 6763 Cr NSE Vol Rs 15704 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 48778 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 587 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 396 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 460 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 732 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 30709 Cr and Options is 16072 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $917.50/oz Nymex Crude $125.10/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Triveni, Minifty, Chambal, Renuka, APIL, IndiaInfo, NagarFert, Escorts, BajajHind, Cummins, RNRL, HDIL, JPHydro, MRPL

• Short build-up – RCom, Bajaj Auto, Maruti, Yes, HindUnilever, NagarConst, TataMot, TataTea, TataPower, SterlingBio

• OI 58173 Cr (+6473 Cr) Nifty OI Up 7% PCR 1.35 (from 1.30)

• There were some mega-movers as far as OI activity is concerned. Triveni saw 83% rise in OI and stock was up 4.5%. RCom results were not up to the mark of the street as the stock slipped 12% and 62% rise in OI was witnessed. Nifty added 7% OI indicating bullishness in days to come. Now one can look forward to 4520-4550 levels. 4300 should be regarded as major support.

Outlook for 4 August, 2008:-

• Indices to open firm but intraday correction not ruled out before further rally. Nifty staying above 4350 would be bullish for the day.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Bata (155.85):- Buy for target 172-176 with SL 144

Crompton Greaves (249):- The stock is looking good to reach above 300 levels now. Ideal buy would be around 240-245 with SL 220.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.