Monday, July 28, 2008


NIFTY (4332 +21 pts)

Supp 4300/4250/4160 Res 4380/4440/4485

SENSEX (14349 +74 pts)

Supp 14200/14060/13800 Res 14480/14610/14780

Review of the previous session:-

  • It was a flat session overall for the markets but Oil & gas and Capital goods stocks supported the indices. ONGC and L&T results in the noon helped the indices post modest gains. Breadth turned positive but volumes were subdued ahead of RBI monetary policy on Tuesday.

  • BSE Breadth 1767 Adv-848 Dec NSE Breadth 837 Adv-374 Dec Upper Circuit -256 Lower Circuit –82

  • BSE Vol Rs 4632 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11097 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 45009 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 721 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 456 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 322 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 214 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37330 Cr and Options is 25808 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $936.90/oz Nymex Crude $123.26/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Long build-up – Polaris, KPIT, NIIT, Ultratech, 3IInfotech, REC, BankNifty, Balrampur, Guj Alkali, Aptech, Dabur, Mphasis, MTNL, BankIndia, ICICI Bank, Tata Tea, WWIL

  • Short build-up – ABB, CESC, Crompton, HDIL, Omaxe, Cipla, NagarConst, Sobha, Maruti, Hindalco

  • OI 82093 Cr (+1044 Cr) Nifty OI Unchanged PCR 1.36 (from 1.37)

  • Second-run IT stocks saw bullish build-up. More gains are likely in stocks like NIIT Tech and KPIT Infosys. Nifty OI remained almost unchanged as investors kept away from building aggressive positions ahead of the monetary policy.

Outlook for 29 July, 2008:-

  • A 25 bps hike in both CRR and Repo Rate look discounted in the prices but anything above that can bring some selling into banking stocks.

  • Sensex finds support around 14150-14200 and any move below that can give way to more correction towards 13800 also.

  • Today initially we may remain sideways between 14150 and 14450 before the monetary policy and stock specific action will continue. After the RBI announcements only can we see some kind of trend.

  • Bear market rallies are quite fast and already we have seen one last week. The indices may settle before making further dash and so one would rather wait for opportunities than hurrying in.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

NIIT Tech (115):- Buy around 109-113 for target of 140-145. Keep SL at 100.

Aban Offshore (2647):- Fall in the crude prices and rise in interest costs can keep the stock under pressure. Technically, the stock can target 2300 levels. One can short around 2680-2730 with SL 2850.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

No comments: