Wednesday, July 16, 2008


NIFTY (3816 -45 pts)

Supp 3770/3710/3630 Res 3850/3900/3955

SENSEX (12575 -100 pts)

Supp 12500/12420/12260 Res 12680/12800/13070

9-June-2008 Newsletter wrote, “Close below 15300 will be bad for the markets and we may test around 12300-12500 levels after that.”

After 3 days, on 12-June-2008, “Any gap-down opening can bring more selling pressure. We have seen consistent selling till now, but any panic can take us towards 12300-12500 levels more quickly than we can think. So better to be light on positions while ending the day always and still averaging the losses is not advised”.

Yesterday, on 16-July-2008, we have seen test of 12514. ANALYST BEING RIGHT OR WRONG IS NEVER IMPORTANT, MORE IMPORTANT IS PROTECTING OUR CAPITAL. NOW TIME HAS COME TO COMMIT MONEY. THIS IS THE TIME THAT WE HAD BEEN WAITING FOR. There can always be some tracking error while predicting a bottom, but it is near. As investors, we have to capitalize on falling markets and investing now can reap good rewards later.

Review of the previous session:-

  • Indices were strong in the first half but then selling was witnessed and Sensex closed down by 100 points. Realty stocks were major losers. Loser on Tuesday was top gainer on Wednesday – Ranbaxy.

  • BSE Breadth 810 Adv-1803 Dec NSE Breadth 292 Adv-912 Dec Upper Circuit - 78 Lower Circuit –234

  • BSE Vol Rs 4611 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11978 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 45738 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 229 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 14 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 69 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 213 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 32836 Cr and Options is 19961 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $962.50/oz Nymex Crude $134.75/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – Renuka, Divi

  • Bearish build-up – Bajaj Hind, Unitech, IDFC, BankNifty, Sesa, JPAsso, ACC, ICICI, DLF, CAIRN, GMR, Reliance

  • OI 66473 Cr (-295 Cr) Nifty OI Down 1% PCR 0.96 (from 1.01)

  • Nifty discount narrowed to Rs 13 from 32 and it shed OI too, indicating a mixture of lack of shorting and some short covering.

Outlook for 17 July, 2008:-

  • Nifty is coming closer to its May 2006 resistance around 3770 and normally stocks/indices move up from previous resistances.

  • The setup looks right for a rally for next 4-5 months. The DISCOUNT SALE looks like coming to an end and time for committing money is here.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

List of stocks one can buy: - Bata, Bharat Electronics, Crompton Greaves, ICICI Bank, IDEA, Infosys, L&T, Mercator Lines, Rolta, Siemens, Tata Steel, Thermax, HDIL, CAIRN. (CAIRN was previously recommended around 220 and now again it has come back to that level. One can add CAIRN again to the portfolio. HDIL is one more stock that’s been added to the list)

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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