Monday, July 14, 2008


NIFTY (4039 -10 pts)

Supp 4000/3960/3890 Res 4120/4170/4220

SENSEX (13330 -139 pts)

Supp 13200/13050/12820 Res 13560/13750/14070

Review of the previous session:-

  • Sensex seemed ranged for most of the day but collapsed in late trade as Tech stocks were under pressure. Metals were top gainers.

  • BSE Breadth 1009 Adv-1576 Dec NSE Breadth 386 Adv-807 Dec Upper Circuit - 138 Lower Circuit –143

  • BSE Vol Rs 4474 Cr NSE Vol Rs 10364 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 40096 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 436 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 63 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 715 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 20 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 35185 Cr and Options is 19243 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $970/oz Nymex Crude $144.75/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – SAIL, Tata Motors

  • Bearish build-up – Axis, Bata, Ranbaxy, Crompton, Chambal, Infosys, Satyam, Nagar Const

  • OI 68911 Cr (+298 Cr) Nifty OI Down 4% PCR 1.22 (from 1.21)

Outlook for 15 July, 2008:-

  • Sensex has made a bottom around 12822 in first week of July and that looks like hanging around. 13000-level is providing support for intraday dips and the worst seems to be getting over for time-being.

  • We have to remember that this is a bear market and any rally from here would be a bear market pullback. Bear market rallies are swift. They are quick characterized by short-covering and most importantly they are stock-specific. That is why as investors, we need to find good stocks to latch on to.

  • Market has fallen on worries like Crude prices, Inflation. But the issues are getting discounted and indices are in the mode of finding their feet. Political uncertainty on government still remains. 12300-12600 is one level where good support can be found, in case we break down again. But individual stocks may not move much below their recent lows.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

SBI (1257):- Buy around 1230-1240 with SL below 1190. The stock can target 1350-1360.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

Bata, Bharat Electronics, Crompton Greaves, ICICI Bank, IDEA, Infosys, Rolta, Mercator Lines, Siemens, Tata Steel are worth buying. One can accumulate these stocks for 15-20% appreciation in next 1 to 2 months from current levels. But being a bear market rally, upside will face resistance. One needs to take profits when they are available and buy the stocks again in dips.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

hello dear Tanmay

where you have been these day ? i liked your postings. thanks for your come back. whatever reason for not posting above period.

good wishes