Wednesday, July 23, 2008


NIFTY (4476 +236 pts)

Supp 4425/4375/4320 Res 4500/4570/4615

SENSEX (14942 +838 pts)

Supp 14800/14570/14400 Res 15000/15260/15400

Review of the previous session:-

  • Indices opened gap-up and more short-covering was witnessed through the day. All BSE sectoral indices were positive, breadth was good and volumes were huge.

  • BSE Breadth 2270 Adv-436 Dec NSE Breadth 1144 Adv-105 Dec Upper Circuit - 419 Lower Circuit –71

  • BSE Vol Rs 7467 Cr NSE Vol Rs 20418 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 68010 Cr

  • FIIs bought Rs 1306 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 875 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 2398 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 491 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37881 Cr and Options is 26283 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $942.60/oz Nymex Crude $126.78/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Long build-up – CorpBank, Voltas, PeninLand, LMW, Moser, SCI, EKC, ABirlaNuvo, BEML, Strides, BankNifty, Renuka, RNRL, Adlabs, Crompton, IndHotel, IRB, Omaxe, Rolta, BChinni, BhartiAir, HCLTech, PNB, BankIndia, GMRInfra, Maruti, LT, IDFC, Kotak, Reliance, Suzlon, Unitech, Aban, Hindalco, IFCI, Satyam, Ster Ind, HDFC

  • Short build-up – ColPal, Bajaj Holding, Cipla, CAIRN

  • OI 81986 Cr (+5655 Cr) Nifty OI Up 3% PCR 1.45 (from 1.24)

  • A lot of long build-up was seen across all the F&O scrips. Out of 235 instruments, only 8 remained in the negative indicating a lot of demand and absence of enough supply. Nifty call OI got reduced by 2624350 and puts added 3231400, giving a rise to PCR towards 1.45. Options data suggests Nifty may face some resistance around 4550-4600 and a reaction is not ruled out.

Outlook for 24 July, 2008:-

  • The markets have responded to the UPA victory positively and that fact is now officially discounted.

  • We have risen nearly 2500 points in 5 days for the Sensex. The rise is truly appealing but now longs should be avoided for time being. A correction is likely to happen before seeing further major rally.

  • We have had good profits as we have been long at the right time and we have to take that profit with both hands. We will get another opportunity to re-enter some time in near future. The settlement ends on 31st July. It is always a possibility that more short covering will occur giving way to overstretching of the indices, but that risk doesn’t look worth taking.

  • Today can be a flat day for the Sensex. It may try to touch 14400-14500 levels in next 3 sessions. So one should be light on positions and be in 50-60% cash levels.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Results Today: - ACC, Bayer Crop, Bharti Airtel, Crisil, Cummins, EClerx, Essel Propack, Exide, Gulf Oil, Hind Zinc, Idea, Info Edge, MRF, Marico, Minda, MIRC, Morepen, Mysore, Neuland, NIIT, NMDC, Piramal Healthcare, Plethico, Rain Commo, Reliance, Rolta, Samkrg, Shaw Wallace, Sobha, Tamil Petro, Uniphos Enter, United Breweries, United Phos, WWIL, Zee News, Zensar Tech

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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