Tuesday, July 22, 2008


NIFTY (4240 +81 pts)

Supp 4215/4160/4120 Res 4325/4370/4420

SENSEX (14104 +254 pts)

Supp 13760/13580/13350 Res 14520/14680/14900

Market is always right and we have to follow it. It’s not whether we are wrong or right, it’s how much we earned when we were right and how much we lost when we were wrong. The UPA government has won the vote of confidence in parliament yesterday, having 275 votes in their favour and 256 against. We jumped into the market from the day it hit 12514 and many of the stocks have performed until now. Sensex has climbed up by more than 1500 points in last 4 trading sessions and today it will discount the UPA win. UPA was toothless with Left but now they have to become ruthless and push ahead reforms as hard as they can. Montek Singh has already stated yesterday about time for elections being limited and that reforms have to be pushed more aggressively now.

Review of the previous session:-

  • Markets were strong through the day as if they sensed the UPA victory in advance. Some volatility was seen but overall it was a strong 4th straight positive closing for the Sensex and the Nifty. FMCG and Power were major gainers with Banks and Metals doing supportive role.

  • BSE Breadth 1849 Adv-734 Dec NSE Breadth 871 Adv-327 Dec Upper Circuit - 212 Lower Circuit –82

  • BSE Vol Rs 5522 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13108 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 54100 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 597 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 261 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 825 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 242 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 35845 Cr and Options is 24361 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $956.80/oz Nymex Crude $126.90/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Long build-up – BEML, Moser, APIL, Lupin, RelCap, ABirlaNuvo, GTOffshore, RelInfra, UniPhos, WelGuj, Titan, BankNifty, BankIndia, RPower, SKumarSynf, BHEL, IDFC, NagarFert, Rolta, PNB

  • Short build-up – Voltas, Aban, GujAlkali, HindOilExp, Maruti, Sobha, IVRCLInfra, Tata Motors, Orchid, PeninLand, DLF, BhartiAirtel

  • OI 76330 Cr (+3546 Cr) Nifty OI Up 1% PCR 1.24 (from 1.31)

Outlook for 23 July, 2008:-

  • Markets to open strong on the back of UPA triumph and Nifty can test 4370-4400 in this surge.

  • Anything around 4350 would mean a lot of risk with small reward. One can exit long calls in good profit when market gives a gap-up opening today. The same stocks can be bought back if we correct after early rush. Even if market continues the upward journey, we would wait for further opportunities. We have to remember that we played long as if it was a bear market rally. Now we stand to benefit and can cut our positions in good profit.

  • List of buys was:- Bata, Bharat Electronics, Crompton Greaves, IDEA, Infosys, L&T, Mercator Lines, Rolta, Siemens, Tata Steel, Thermax, HDIL, CAIRN, Punj Lloyd. 15-20% returns in quick time are very decent in such a bear market. We can book profits and wait for further opportunities. It’s not at all bad to be in cash for some time after reaping good profits.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Results Today: - Atul, Aztec, Crompton, GIPCL, Infotech Enter, J Kumar Infra, LMW, MMTC, M&M Finserv, Mastek, Patni Comp, Pidilite, Renuka, Ster Tech, Zee Enter


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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