Monday, July 21, 2008


NIFTY (4159 +67 pts)

Supp 4130/4070/4020 Res 4195/4225/4300

SENSEX (13850 +214 pts)

Supp 13760/13580/13350 Res 13900/14070/14200

Review of the previous session:-

  • Markets opened firm but hesitated in positive territory for most of the day. After 1 pm, mixture of consistent buying and some short covering was seen. As a result, Sensex could close near the high of the day. Banks and Healthcare were the flavour of the day. But volumes remained thin going into the confidence vote on Tuesday.

  • BSE Breadth 1169 Adv-1362 Dec NSE Breadth 543 Adv-666 Dec Upper Circuit - 131 Lower Circuit –121

  • BSE Vol Rs 4408 Cr NSE Vol Rs 10640 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 43942 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 62 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 230 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 2005 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 136 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 34951 Cr and Options is 22425 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $965.00/oz Nymex Crude $129.70/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Long build-up – Indian Bank, NagarConst, IVRCLInfra, Renuka, BankIndia, Praj, BankBaroda, ICICI Bank, Union bank

  • Short build-up – IDFC, Satyam, YesBank, Crompton, GTOffshore, GNFC, BEL, APIL, DCB, GMRInfra, CAIRN, Sesa, BHEL

  • OI 72784 Cr (+1841 Cr) Nifty OI Up 1% PCR 1.31 (from 1.24)

  • Nifty saw long build-up yesterday and most of it is flowing from FIIs as they have bought more than Rs 6000 Cr in Nifty futures in last 3 days. Nifty was in discount of 14 points and it has come into a premium of nearly 6 points yesterday. PCR jumped to 1.31 indicating more put addition. It looks like smart money is moving into longs.

Outlook for 22 July, 2008:-

  • Vote of confidence is scheduled between 5pm and 6pm today but Sensex has already run up more than 1300 points from its recent lows in last 3 trading sessions. Market knows everything in advance, and it just may be an indication that the UPA government may scrape through the voting. Whatever the truth is, will only come out in the evening when markets are not trading.

  • Today is a very crucial day for traders as it is the last session before the voting happens as markets will be discounting the voting result, right on Wednesday morning itself. But as far as investors are concerned, this still looks like an opportunity to buy.

  • Stocks like ICICI Bank, HDIL, IDEA, L&T and Siemens have already run up from our list and rest should follow soon. One can replace ICICI Bank with Punj Lloyd. Add these stocks in intraday dips. List is once again given here:- Bata, Bharat Electronics, Crompton Greaves, IDEA, Infosys, L&T, Mercator Lines, Rolta, Siemens, Tata Steel, Thermax, HDIL, CAIRN, Punj Lloyd.

  • Nifty can find resistance around 4190-4220 in today’s trade. A reaction towards 4000-4030 levels should be regarded as a normal correction. Move below 3940 shall indicate some caution for longs.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Results Today: - Alfa Laval, Asian Paints, BankOfRaj, Bihar Caustic, Century Text, Coromandel Fert, Ecoboard, Emco, Foursoft, Grindwell Norton, Hanung, IDBI Bank, Indra Gas, Jindal Stain, Lupin, Nelco, NIIT Tech, Sesa, Siemens, Strides Arco, Tata Elxi, Thermax, TVS Elec

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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