DAILY REPORT FOR 1 AUGUST, 2008

NIFTY (4332 +19 pts)

Supp 4275/4225/4160 Res 4360/4395/4460

SENSEX (14355 +68 pts)

Supp 14220/14080/13950 Res 14480/14610/14830

Sensex faces stiff resistance around 14600 and failing to cross it can give some correction which can take us towards 12300-12600 once again. The nice part can be we don’t correct and consolidate here for some days. All bad news like inflation, subprime, crude prices, interest rate hikes look priced in for now and so declines should be used to accumulate good stocks. The downside can be 2000 points from here which can translate into 15-20% down moves in individual stocks also. So one needs to take these things into account and be ready to average. It is a calculated risk which should reward us in the end. GT Offshore, Bata, TCS, Crompton Greaves, Rolta, Cummins, Tata Motors can be looked at for accumulation.

Review of the previous session:-

• Markets opened firm but could not post big gains. Indices were range-bound the whole day. Volumes were expectedly higher owing to F&O expiry. Inflation for the week ended 19 July was 11.98% against 11.89% a week ago.

• BSE Breadth 1296 Adv-1326 Dec NSE Breadth 559 Adv-651 Dec Upper Circuit -194 Lower Circuit –104

• BSE Vol Rs 5091 Cr NSE Vol Rs 15386 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 64640 Cr

• FIIs bought Rs 494 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 320 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 504 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 257 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 28825 Cr and Options is 15248 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $928.00/oz Nymex Crude $124.25/bbl

Outlook for 1 August, 2008:-

• Inflation rose a little bit but FIIs and Domestic institutions show a buying trend. Next 2 sessions look important for further action. If we are unable to cross 14600 in this period, we may see correction in days to come.

• Nifty has intraday support at 4275 and below that some correction towards 4225 is not ruled out. Caution is advised below 4225. If we stay above 4275 levels after first half, we can see 4360-4390 also being reached in late trade.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Cummins (283):- Buy for target of 320-330. Keep SL of 269

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 31 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (4313 +124 pts)

Supp 4270/4235/4185 Res 4355/4395/4460

SENSEX (14287 +496 pts)

Supp 14200/14080/13950 Res 14420/14610/14830

Investing is an on-going exercise and not a momentary one. Bear markets are nicest times to build a portfolio. The bear market may last for 6 months or for a year or two also but if one takes a longer-term view (around 3-5 years) and starts investing in bear market, one will be rewarded fairly when the market takes a U-turn.

Review of the previous session:-

• Banks, Realty and Metals were top gainers in a session which was characterized by consistent buying all day through. Fall in crude prices gave further boost to buying.

• BSE Breadth 1784 Adv-857 Dec NSE Breadth 885 Adv-334 Dec Upper Circuit -226 Lower Circuit –93

• BSE Vol Rs 5353 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12734 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 58543 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 628 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 672 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 1433 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 13 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 38248 Cr and Options is 26337 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $915.40/oz Nymex Crude $124.80/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – RNRL, Union, RPower, LITL, Nucleus, GT Offshore, Divi, EKC, Lupin, CAIRN, CorpBank, Sterling Bio

• Short build-up – Bata, Zee Enter, ITC, NTPC, Ballarpur, JSW, WelGuj

• OI 83546 Cr (+3300 Cr) Nifty OI Down 1% PCR 1.33 (from 1.25)

• Nifty saw a lot of short-covering. Put Call Ratio jumped to 1.33 from 1.25 as written calls looked to have been squared off.

Outlook for 31 July, 2008:-

• Sensex showed strength and did cross 14210 yesterday. Today being expiry day, the volatility would be high and we are now up against pretty good resistance at 14610. Closing past this level may mean that we can cross the previous highs around 15130 in August.

• Bata, Rolta, TCS, Crompton Greaves, Great Offshore are scrips which one can look for buying for next month or two. Intraday dips would provide good opportunities for buying.

• Today Nifty may remain between 4355 and 4270 in the first half. Break of any level should give move towards that direction. Caution is advised only below 4235.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

McDowell (1281):- Buy with SL 1230 for target 1380-1400

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Results Today: - AdiBirlaNuvo, Adlabs, Amtek Auto, Apollo Hosp, Arvind Ltd, Bajaj Hind, Balrampur, BASF, BEML, Bharat Forge, Castrol, DLF, Essar Oil, Federal Bank, FinTech, Fino Cables, Gammon, HCL Tech, HEG, HT Media, Ispat, Jai Corp, Jindal Saw, JSW, Kalpataru, KEC Inter, Kesoram, MTNL, Moser Bear, Nagarjuna Const, Nalco, Navneet, Nestle, Opto Circuit, Parsvnath, Raymond, STFC, Sterling Bio, Tata Steel, Titan, Tube Inv, TV Today, Videocon Ind, Yes Bank

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 30 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (4189 -143 pts)

Supp 4160/4070/3950 Res 4250/4300/4345

SENSEX (13791 -557 pts)

Supp 13720/13570/13450 Res 13900/14060/14220

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices opened gap-down and it was a down movement all day. RBI hiked CRR by 25 bps and Repo rate by 50 bps, which came as a negative surprise. Banks and Real estate stocks were major losers while FMCG bucked the trend.

• BSE Breadth 963 Adv-1672 Dec NSE Breadth 311 Adv-900 Dec Upper Circuit -168 Lower Circuit –118

• BSE Vol Rs 5103 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12190 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 64804 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 538 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 254 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 1470 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 394 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37789 Cr and Options is 25081 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $923.50/oz Nymex Crude $121.65/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Bata, Sterling Bio, Polaris, JStainless, Bongai, Hind Unilever, Orchid, Balrampur, CAIRN

• Short build-up – SunTV, BEL, Minifty, Axis, Dr Reddy, BankIndia, ABB, RPower, Siemens, Tata Motors, Union, Wipro, ICICI Bank, NTPC

• OI 80245 Cr (-1847 Cr) Nifty OI Up 3% PCR 1.25 (from 1.36)

Outlook for 30 July, 2008:-

• Nifty tested 4160 yesterday and some bounce up to 4250 is not ruled out. More pain to come if we breach 4160.

• RBI has tightened more in the monetary policy than the street was expecting. This indicates that bringing down inflation is the top priority for the central bank.

• Markets to open firm on the back of positive US markets. But Sensex has to cross 14210 quickly to show any kind of strength. Indices can become volatile as expiry for July08 nears.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

GT Offshore (409):- Buy with SL 375 for target 490-500.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Results Today: - Alok, Ansal Infra, AuroPharma, Bata, Bongai, CESC, DCB, EKC, Geometric, Global Vect, GT Offshore, Guj Alkali, GMDC, GNFC, Guj Gas, HCL Tech, Hinduja Vent, ITC, IBullRealEst, India Cem, IOC, IVR Prime, IVRCL Infra, J&K bank, Lanco, Mah Seam, M&M, Orchid, PowerGrid, PNB, Purva, RelCap, Shanti Gear, Suzlon, Tata Chem, Tata Comm, Tata Motors, Triveni, Tulip, Unitech, Unity Infra, Vishal Retail, Yes Bank

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 29 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (4332 +21 pts)

Supp 4300/4250/4160 Res 4380/4440/4485

SENSEX (14349 +74 pts)

Supp 14200/14060/13800 Res 14480/14610/14780

Review of the previous session:-

• It was a flat session overall for the markets but Oil & gas and Capital goods stocks supported the indices. ONGC and L&T results in the noon helped the indices post modest gains. Breadth turned positive but volumes were subdued ahead of RBI monetary policy on Tuesday.

• BSE Breadth 1767 Adv-848 Dec NSE Breadth 837 Adv-374 Dec Upper Circuit -256 Lower Circuit –82

• BSE Vol Rs 4632 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11097 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 45009 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 721 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 456 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 322 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 214 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37330 Cr and Options is 25808 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $936.90/oz Nymex Crude $123.26/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Polaris, KPIT, NIIT, Ultratech, 3IInfotech, REC, BankNifty, Balrampur, Guj Alkali, Aptech, Dabur, Mphasis, MTNL, BankIndia, ICICI Bank, Tata Tea, WWIL

• Short build-up – ABB, CESC, Crompton, HDIL, Omaxe, Cipla, NagarConst, Sobha, Maruti, Hindalco

• OI 82093 Cr (+1044 Cr) Nifty OI Unchanged PCR 1.36 (from 1.37)

• Second-run IT stocks saw bullish build-up. More gains are likely in stocks like NIIT Tech and KPIT Infosys. Nifty OI remained almost unchanged as investors kept away from building aggressive positions ahead of the monetary policy.

Outlook for 29 July, 2008:-

• A 25 bps hike in both CRR and Repo Rate look discounted in the prices but anything above that can bring some selling into banking stocks.

• Sensex finds support around 14150-14200 and any move below that can give way to more correction towards 13800 also.

• Today initially we may remain sideways between 14150 and 14450 before the monetary policy and stock specific action will continue. After the RBI announcements only can we see some kind of trend.

• Bear market rallies are quite fast and already we have seen one last week. The indices may settle before making further dash and so one would rather wait for opportunities than hurrying in.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

NIIT Tech (115):- Buy around 109-113 for target of 140-145. Keep SL at 100.

Aban Offshore (2647):- Fall in the crude prices and rise in interest costs can keep the stock under pressure. Technically, the stock can target 2300 levels. One can short around 2680-2730 with SL 2850.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 28 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (4311 -122 pts)

Supp 4250/4200/4160 Res 4385/4450/4500

SENSEX (14274 -502 pts)

Supp 14130/14050/13820 Res 14350/14480/14610

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices opened negatively on the back of weak global sentiment. Banks were major losers. Both FIIs and Mutual Funds turned big sellers.

• BSE Breadth 1154 Adv-1460 Dec NSE Breadth 480 Adv-721 Dec Upper Circuit -163 Lower Circuit –106

• BSE Vol Rs 5866 Cr NSE Vol Rs 14742 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 53163 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 565 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 302 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 1166 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 883 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37004 Cr and Options is 25659 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $926.80/oz Nymex Crude $123.26/bbl

Outlook for 28 July, 2008:-

• Nifty support exists at 4250 which can be tested before any up move happens.

• Sensex has to cross 14610 in next 2 trading sessions otherwise we may see more correction in days to come.

• It is advisable to remain in good cash levels (50-60%). Market players await the RBI monetary policy on Tuesday and after that only we can think of some clear direction.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Results Today: - Aarti Drugs, Adani Enter, Alembic, Andhra Sugar, BoI, BPCL, Blue Star, Bosch, Britannia, Dabur, Dena, Dish TV, EID Parry, EIH Ltd, Escorts, Genus Power, GlaxoSmith, Glenmark, Havells, HDFC Bank, Hindalco, ICSA, IOB, Jain Irrigation, Kotak Bank, LT, MIC, Monnet Ispat, Mundra Port, Neyveli, Nirma, Nitin Fire, ONGC, Panacea Bio, REC, Shiv Vani, Sterlite Ind, Sun Pharma, Sun TV, Tata Comm, Tata Tea, TVS Mot, Welspun Ind, Wockhardt, Wyeth

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 25 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (4433 -43 pts)

Supp 4365/4300/4250 Res 4480/4540/4600

SENSEX (14777 -165 pts)

Supp 14520/14440/14200 Res 14850/14980/15130

Review of the previous session:-

• Initial thrust was bullish but markets faced selling pressure from higher levels and 5-day rally was snapped. Banks were under pressure on fears that RBI may increase CRR once again in the RBI monetary policy on 29^th. IT and Metals were major losers.

• BSE Breadth 1258 Adv-1458 Dec NSE Breadth 463 Adv-762 Dec Upper Circuit - 272 Lower Circuit –96

• BSE Vol Rs 7445 Cr NSE Vol Rs 17670 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 58129 Cr

• FIIs bought Rs 272 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 609 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 544 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 276 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37153 Cr and Options is 26283 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $924.00/oz Nymex Crude $124.60/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – UniPhos, Chambal, Aptech, NagarFert, SCI, ZEEL, Sasken, LMW, LITL, RNRL, Voltas

• Short build-up – IRB, ColPal, Omaxe, HindZinc, IndHotel, IDFC, Rcom, Sesa, Ambuja, HCL Tech, Satyam, LT, RPL, Tata Power, TCS, TechMah, YesBank, BankNifty, Bharti Air, IDEA, HDFC, PNB

• OI 82248 Cr (+261 Cr) Nifty OI Down 1% PCR 1.48 (from 1.45)

• Tech stocks have seen shorts build-up while Nifty witnessed some profit-taking.

Outlook for 25 July, 2008:-

• Inflation numbers came out last evening at 11.89 Vs 11.91. RBI is going to announce monetary policy on July 29^th and it will be watched pretty closely. Bank stocks would remain in action as many rumours regarding the policy will float in the market.

• Nifty can correct towards 4360 and 4250 before moving up. Resistance for intraday stands at 4480 and 4540. One is still advised to be in 50-60% cash levels.

• The movement can become stock-specific. The results season is almost getting over and many companies have reported flat numbers. The street is getting ready for the next clues – further inflation trend, RBI indication through monetary policy and global markets.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

HDFC Bank (1214):- Go short around 1230-1250 with SL 1300 and target 1100-1120

CAIRN (224): - The stock looks like bottoming out around current levels. One can buy here with SL of 214 and target 242-246.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Results Today: - 3IInfo, ABB, APIL, Amara Raja, Ambuja, Andhra Bank, CEAT, Dredging Corp, Educomp, Emami, EIL, GDL, Godrej Cons, Grasim, GSPL, GSFC, Hind Mot, Hind Unilever, HCC, I-Flex, IBulls, Indian Hotel, IndusInd, Inox Leisure, Ion Exch, Ipca, JB Chem, Jindal Steel, Ktk Bank, MRPL, Micro Tech, Mphasis, Mukta Arts, NagarFert, OBC, Redington, RNRL, RPower, Sonata, SRF, Suven, Take Sol, Tata Power, Union Bank, United Brew, Whirlpool

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 24 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (4476 +236 pts)

Supp 4425/4375/4320 Res 4500/4570/4615

SENSEX (14942 +838 pts)

Supp 14800/14570/14400 Res 15000/15260/15400

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices opened gap-up and more short-covering was witnessed through the day. All BSE sectoral indices were positive, breadth was good and volumes were huge.

• BSE Breadth 2270 Adv-436 Dec NSE Breadth 1144 Adv-105 Dec Upper Circuit - 419 Lower Circuit –71

• BSE Vol Rs 7467 Cr NSE Vol Rs 20418 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 68010 Cr

• FIIs bought Rs 1306 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 875 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 2398 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 491 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37881 Cr and Options is 26283 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $942.60/oz Nymex Crude $126.78/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – CorpBank, Voltas, PeninLand, LMW, Moser, SCI, EKC, ABirlaNuvo, BEML, Strides, BankNifty, Renuka, RNRL, Adlabs, Crompton, IndHotel, IRB, Omaxe, Rolta, BChinni, BhartiAir, HCLTech, PNB, BankIndia, GMRInfra, Maruti, LT, IDFC, Kotak, Reliance, Suzlon, Unitech, Aban, Hindalco, IFCI, Satyam, Ster Ind, HDFC

• Short build-up – ColPal, Bajaj Holding, Cipla, CAIRN

• OI 81986 Cr (+5655 Cr) Nifty OI Up 3% PCR 1.45 (from 1.24)

• A lot of long build-up was seen across all the F&O scrips. Out of 235 instruments, only 8 remained in the negative indicating a lot of demand and absence of enough supply. Nifty call OI got reduced by 2624350 and puts added 3231400, giving a rise to PCR towards 1.45. Options data suggests Nifty may face some resistance around 4550-4600 and a reaction is not ruled out.

Outlook for 24 July, 2008:-

• The markets have responded to the UPA victory positively and that fact is now officially discounted.

• We have risen nearly 2500 points in 5 days for the Sensex. The rise is truly appealing but now longs should be avoided for time being. A correction is likely to happen before seeing further major rally.

• We have had good profits as we have been long at the right time and we have to take that profit with both hands. We will get another opportunity to re-enter some time in near future. The settlement ends on 31^st July. It is always a possibility that more short covering will occur giving way to overstretching of the indices, but that risk doesn’t look worth taking.

• Today can be a flat day for the Sensex. It may try to touch 14400-14500 levels in next 3 sessions. So one should be light on positions and be in 50-60% cash levels.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Results Today: - ACC, Bayer Crop, Bharti Airtel, Crisil, Cummins, EClerx, Essel Propack, Exide, Gulf Oil, Hind Zinc, Idea, Info Edge, MRF, Marico, Minda, MIRC, Morepen, Mysore, Neuland, NIIT, NMDC, Piramal Healthcare, Plethico, Rain Commo, Reliance, Rolta, Samkrg, Shaw Wallace, Sobha, Tamil Petro, Uniphos Enter, United Breweries, United Phos, WWIL, Zee News, Zensar Tech

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 23 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (4240 +81 pts)

Supp 4215/4160/4120 Res 4325/4370/4420

SENSEX (14104 +254 pts)

Supp 13760/13580/13350 Res 14520/14680/14900

Market is always right and we have to follow it. It’s not whether we are wrong or right, it’s how much we earned when we were right and how much we lost when we were wrong. The UPA government has won the vote of confidence in parliament yesterday, having 275 votes in their favour and 256 against. We jumped into the market from the day it hit 12514 and many of the stocks have performed until now. Sensex has climbed up by more than 1500 points in last 4 trading sessions and today it will discount the UPA win. UPA was toothless with Left but now they have to become ruthless and push ahead reforms as hard as they can. Montek Singh has already stated yesterday about time for elections being limited and that reforms have to be pushed more aggressively now.

Review of the previous session:-

• Markets were strong through the day as if they sensed the UPA victory in advance. Some volatility was seen but overall it was a strong 4^th straight positive closing for the Sensex and the Nifty. FMCG and Power were major gainers with Banks and Metals doing supportive role.

• BSE Breadth 1849 Adv-734 Dec NSE Breadth 871 Adv-327 Dec Upper Circuit - 212 Lower Circuit –82

• BSE Vol Rs 5522 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13108 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 54100 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 597 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 261 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 825 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 242 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 35845 Cr and Options is 24361 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $956.80/oz Nymex Crude $126.90/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – BEML, Moser, APIL, Lupin, RelCap, ABirlaNuvo, GTOffshore, RelInfra, UniPhos, WelGuj, Titan, BankNifty, BankIndia, RPower, SKumarSynf, BHEL, IDFC, NagarFert, Rolta, PNB

• Short build-up – Voltas, Aban, GujAlkali, HindOilExp, Maruti, Sobha, IVRCLInfra, Tata Motors, Orchid, PeninLand, DLF, BhartiAirtel

• OI 76330 Cr (+3546 Cr) Nifty OI Up 1% PCR 1.24 (from 1.31)

Outlook for 23 July, 2008:-

• Markets to open strong on the back of UPA triumph and Nifty can test 4370-4400 in this surge.

• Anything around 4350 would mean a lot of risk with small reward. One can exit long calls in good profit when market gives a gap-up opening today. The same stocks can be bought back if we correct after early rush. Even if market continues the upward journey, we would wait for further opportunities. We have to remember that we played long as if it was a bear market rally. Now we stand to benefit and can cut our positions in good profit.

• List of buys was:- Bata, Bharat Electronics, Crompton Greaves, IDEA, Infosys, L&T, Mercator Lines, Rolta, Siemens, Tata Steel, Thermax, HDIL, CAIRN, Punj Lloyd. 15-20% returns in quick time are very decent in such a bear market. We can book profits and wait for further opportunities. It’s not at all bad to be in cash for some time after reaping good profits.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Results Today: - Atul, Aztec, Crompton, GIPCL, Infotech Enter, J Kumar Infra, LMW, MMTC, M&M Finserv, Mastek, Patni Comp, Pidilite, Renuka, Ster Tech, Zee Enter

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 22 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (4159 +67 pts)

Supp 4130/4070/4020 Res 4195/4225/4300

SENSEX (13850 +214 pts)

Supp 13760/13580/13350 Res 13900/14070/14200

Review of the previous session:-

• Markets opened firm but hesitated in positive territory for most of the day. After 1 pm, mixture of consistent buying and some short covering was seen. As a result, Sensex could close near the high of the day. Banks and Healthcare were the flavour of the day. But volumes remained thin going into the confidence vote on Tuesday.

• BSE Breadth 1169 Adv-1362 Dec NSE Breadth 543 Adv-666 Dec Upper Circuit - 131 Lower Circuit –121

• BSE Vol Rs 4408 Cr NSE Vol Rs 10640 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 43942 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 62 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 230 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 2005 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 136 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 34951 Cr and Options is 22425 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $965.00/oz Nymex Crude $129.70/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Long build-up – Indian Bank, NagarConst, IVRCLInfra, Renuka, BankIndia, Praj, BankBaroda, ICICI Bank, Union bank

• Short build-up – IDFC, Satyam, YesBank, Crompton, GTOffshore, GNFC, BEL, APIL, DCB, GMRInfra, CAIRN, Sesa, BHEL

• OI 72784 Cr (+1841 Cr) Nifty OI Up 1% PCR 1.31 (from 1.24)

• Nifty saw long build-up yesterday and most of it is flowing from FIIs as they have bought more than Rs 6000 Cr in Nifty futures in last 3 days. Nifty was in discount of 14 points and it has come into a premium of nearly 6 points yesterday. PCR jumped to 1.31 indicating more put addition. It looks like smart money is moving into longs.

Outlook for 22 July, 2008:-

• Vote of confidence is scheduled between 5pm and 6pm today but Sensex has already run up more than 1300 points from its recent lows in last 3 trading sessions. Market knows everything in advance, and it just may be an indication that the UPA government may scrape through the voting. Whatever the truth is, will only come out in the evening when markets are not trading.

• Today is a very crucial day for traders as it is the last session before the voting happens as markets will be discounting the voting result, right on Wednesday morning itself. But as far as investors are concerned, this still looks like an opportunity to buy.

• Stocks like ICICI Bank, HDIL, IDEA, L&T and Siemens have already run up from our list and rest should follow soon. One can replace ICICI Bank with Punj Lloyd. Add these stocks in intraday dips. List is once again given here:- Bata, Bharat Electronics, Crompton Greaves, IDEA, Infosys, L&T, Mercator Lines, Rolta, Siemens, Tata Steel, Thermax, HDIL, CAIRN, Punj Lloyd.

• Nifty can find resistance around 4190-4220 in today’s trade. A reaction towards 4000-4030 levels should be regarded as a normal correction. Move below 3940 shall indicate some caution for longs.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Results Today: - Alfa Laval, Asian Paints, BankOfRaj, Bihar Caustic, Century Text, Coromandel Fert, Ecoboard, Emco, Foursoft, Grindwell Norton, Hanung, IDBI Bank, Indra Gas, Jindal Stain, Lupin, Nelco, NIIT Tech, Sesa, Siemens, Strides Arco, Tata Elxi, Thermax, TVS Elec

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 18 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (3947 +131 pts)

Supp 3900/3850/3790 Res 4000/4060/4125

SENSEX (13111 +536 pts)

Supp 13000/12890/12750 Res 13280/13470/13560

Review of the previous session:-

• Market opened very firm and remained that way the whole day. Banks, Realty, Power, Capital Goods and Auto all flared up. Metals were losers. Inflation data came at 11.91% Vs 11.89% last week suggesting some lessening of inflation worries.

• BSE Breadth 1536 Adv-1081 Dec NSE Breadth 789 Adv-402 Dec Upper Circuit - 122 Lower Circuit –145

• BSE Vol Rs 4865 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11707 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 46300 Cr

• FIIs bought Rs 310 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 168 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 2433 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 56 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 33087 Cr and Options is 20698 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $970.70/oz Nymex Crude $129.29/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Bullish build-up – LIC Hsg, Mphasis, Polaris, NagarConst, Omaxe, Punj Lloyd, Rel Infra, Tata Motors, DCB, Unitech, RelCap

• Bearish build-up – Biocon, Balrampur Chinni, Karnataka Bank, Rolta, Ster Ind

• OI 67251 Cr (+778 Cr) Nifty OI Down 8% PCR 1.08 (from 0.96)

Outlook for 17 July, 2008:-

• Inflation data was not negative as far as market sentiment is concerned. More cues about inflation will appear from next week data and RBI policy, late this month.

• Markets are always ahead of us all and we need to follow markets as the vice versa doesn’t happen. We have closed above 13000 once again and when the rally continues for a day or two, shorts will be forced to cover up.

• Indices to open gap-up today on the back of strong global markets. Nifty close around 4050 today will make things very positive for the coming week. In that case, we may even see test of 4200 happening in the next week itself.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Crompton Greaves (227):- Buy around 224-230 for 270-275 levels as price objective. SL can be kept at 208.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

Thermax (375.60):- The stock has lost nearly 60% from its all time high around 940. It looks attractive for investment. One can buy for target around 450-475 in 1-2 months timeframe.

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 17 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (3816 -45 pts)

Supp 3770/3710/3630 Res 3850/3900/3955

SENSEX (12575 -100 pts)

Supp 12500/12420/12260 Res 12680/12800/13070

9-June-2008 Newsletter wrote, “Close below 15300 will be bad for the markets and we may test around 12300-12500 levels after that.”

After 3 days, on 12-June-2008, “Any gap-down opening can bring more selling pressure. We have seen consistent selling till now, but any panic can take us towards 12300-12500 levels more quickly than we can think. So better to be light on positions while ending the day always and still averaging the losses is not advised”.

Yesterday, on 16-July-2008, we have seen test of 12514. ANALYST BEING RIGHT OR WRONG IS NEVER IMPORTANT, MORE IMPORTANT IS PROTECTING OUR CAPITAL. NOW TIME HAS COME TO COMMIT MONEY. THIS IS THE TIME THAT WE HAD BEEN WAITING FOR. There can always be some tracking error while predicting a bottom, but it is near. As investors, we have to capitalize on falling markets and investing now can reap good rewards later.

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices were strong in the first half but then selling was witnessed and Sensex closed down by 100 points. Realty stocks were major losers. Loser on Tuesday was top gainer on Wednesday – Ranbaxy.

• BSE Breadth 810 Adv-1803 Dec NSE Breadth 292 Adv-912 Dec Upper Circuit - 78 Lower Circuit –234

• BSE Vol Rs 4611 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11978 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 45738 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 229 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 14 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 69 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 213 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 32836 Cr and Options is 19961 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $962.50/oz Nymex Crude $134.75/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Bullish build-up – Renuka, Divi

• Bearish build-up – Bajaj Hind, Unitech, IDFC, BankNifty, Sesa, JPAsso, ACC, ICICI, DLF, CAIRN, GMR, Reliance

• OI 66473 Cr (-295 Cr) Nifty OI Down 1% PCR 0.96 (from 1.01)

• Nifty discount narrowed to Rs 13 from 32 and it shed OI too, indicating a mixture of lack of shorting and some short covering.

Outlook for 17 July, 2008:-

• Nifty is coming closer to its May 2006 resistance around 3770 and normally stocks/indices move up from previous resistances.

• The setup looks right for a rally for next 4-5 months. The DISCOUNT SALE looks like coming to an end and time for committing money is here.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

List of stocks one can buy: - Bata, Bharat Electronics, Crompton Greaves, ICICI Bank, IDEA, Infosys, L&T, Mercator Lines, Rolta, Siemens, Tata Steel, Thermax, HDIL, CAIRN. (CAIRN was previously recommended around 220 and now again it has come back to that level. One can add CAIRN again to the portfolio. HDIL is one more stock that’s been added to the list)

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 16 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (3861 -178 pts)

Supp 3820/3770/3700 Res 3925/3980/4050

SENSEX (12676 -654 pts)

Supp 12600/12420/12280 Res 12790/12950/13100

We have fallen from 21200 to nearly 12500 and risk-reward ratio looks favourable here. We are not buying at 21000 to fear, we are at almost 12000. The downside from here may be 10000 also but India growth story being still strong, one can start buying. There have been hiccups like IIP, Inflation, Crude and now politics. But now it looks like all bad news is getting discounted. No economy can prosper without odd slowdowns like we are facing. So it is a time to invest and one should take benefit of these opportunities. Finding a bottom is always difficult in a Bear market like it is with tops in a bull market. WE CAN NEVER BUY A BOTTOM AND SELL A TOP, BUT THIS IS A CASE WHERE WE HAVE A LITTLE DOWNSIDE RISK BUT MORE UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

Review of the previous session:-

• It was a very bad session for the bulls as Sensex and Nifty stocks got sold off consistently for the whole day. Asian markets opened weak and so did Indian markets. Both could not recover the whole day and went into a downtrend.

• All 50 stocks from Nifty and 30 stocks from Sensex finished in the negative zone. Banks, Realty were major losers. Frontline Tech stocks showed some hope. Only 20% stocks on the BSE could close in the positive.

• BSE Breadth 535 Adv-2105 Dec NSE Breadth 147 Adv-1067 Dec Upper Circuit - 88 Lower Circuit –240

• BSE Vol Rs 4304 Cr NSE Vol Rs 10623 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 44122 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 702 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 283 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 103 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 327 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 34675 Cr and Options is 20331 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $984/oz Nymex Crude $145.50/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Bullish build-up – No stocks showed significant bullish build-up

• Bearish build-up – Minifty, BankNifty, Ranbaxy, Orchid, NTPC, ICICIBank, RPL, ITC, SBI

• OI 66768 Cr (-2142 Cr) Nifty OI Up 5% PCR 1.01 (from 1.22)

• F&O cues show very weak markets as Nifty built up more shorts. PCR going down shows shakeout of Put writers. Ranbaxy added a lot of short OI and it will have to consolidate before generating any meaningful rally.

Outlook for 16 July, 2008:-

• Sensex broke through the recent support at 12822 and then it was like a bottomless pit. We hit new lows for 2008 and tested May 2006 tops around 12600.

• 12300-12600 was the level where we were going to bottom-fish, but we started a bit early. In spite of that, investors still have to look for good buys. We have to buy decent stocks when there is blood on the street. Patience will be rewarded.

• Anybody having investment term for 3-5 years will gain by these opportunities. Tops happen quickly but bottoms take time to form. So buying in cash is only advised. Those who trade on leverage and F&O can find buying a very painful experience.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

List of stocks one can buy has already been given yesterday: - Bata, Bharat Electronics, Crompton Greaves, ICICI Bank, IDEA, Infosys, Rolta, Mercator Lines, Siemens, Tata Steel. Add Capital Goods stocks like L&T and Thermax to this list.

One can accumulate these stocks for 15-20% appreciation in next 1 to 2 months from current levels. But being a bear market rally, upside will face resistance. One needs to take profits when they are available and buy the stocks again in dips.

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 15 JULY, 2008

NIFTY (4039 -10 pts)

Supp 4000/3960/3890 Res 4120/4170/4220

SENSEX (13330 -139 pts)

Supp 13200/13050/12820 Res 13560/13750/14070

Review of the previous session:-

• Sensex seemed ranged for most of the day but collapsed in late trade as Tech stocks were under pressure. Metals were top gainers.

• BSE Breadth 1009 Adv-1576 Dec NSE Breadth 386 Adv-807 Dec Upper Circuit - 138 Lower Circuit –143

• BSE Vol Rs 4474 Cr NSE Vol Rs 10364 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 40096 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 436 Cr in cash market and MFs sold 63 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 715 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 20 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 35185 Cr and Options is 19243 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $970/oz Nymex Crude $144.75/bbl

F&O observations:-

• Bullish build-up – SAIL, Tata Motors

• Bearish build-up – Axis, Bata, Ranbaxy, Crompton, Chambal, Infosys, Satyam, Nagar Const

• OI 68911 Cr (+298 Cr) Nifty OI Down 4% PCR 1.22 (from 1.21)

Outlook for 15 July, 2008:-

• Sensex has made a bottom around 12822 in first week of July and that looks like hanging around. 13000-level is providing support for intraday dips and the worst seems to be getting over for time-being.

• We have to remember that this is a bear market and any rally from here would be a bear market pullback. Bear market rallies are swift. They are quick characterized by short-covering and most importantly they are stock-specific. That is why as investors, we need to find good stocks to latch on to.

• Market has fallen on worries like Crude prices, Inflation. But the issues are getting discounted and indices are in the mode of finding their feet. Political uncertainty on government still remains. 12300-12600 is one level where good support can be found, in case we break down again. But individual stocks may not move much below their recent lows.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

SBI (1257):- Buy around 1230-1240 with SL below 1190. The stock can target 1350-1360.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

Bata, Bharat Electronics, Crompton Greaves, ICICI Bank, IDEA, Infosys, Rolta, Mercator Lines, Siemens, Tata Steel are worth buying. One can accumulate these stocks for 15-20% appreciation in next 1 to 2 months from current levels. But being a bear market rally, upside will face resistance. One needs to take profits when they are available and buy the stocks again in dips.

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.