Nifty has closed positive (+48 points) at 5137 positive close 5th week in a row and its biggest stretch of weekly gains since June last year, but closed flat on Friday as market players booked profit before weekend. Nifty was constricted between a very narrow range this week as it hit 5092 to start the week and it could go up to only 5158 on Friday which gives a weekly range of just 66 points which is narrowest in nearly 10 weeks. It indicates indecision at current levels and volumes have dropped to very low levels which gives suspicion about the uptrend. AMBUJA CEM, M&M, ABB, ITC gained more than 5% each making them top gainers in Nifty whereas HIND UNILEVER fell nearly 10% in this week as the company was hurt by pricing war in detergent segment. SUZLON, RCOM and UNITECH were other losers.
IIP data :- Industrial output in India continued to grow at a fast pace; Output at India's factories and mines rose 16.7% from a year earlier in January, slower than a revised 17.6% expansion in December, government data issued Friday showed.
Nifty has to cross 5200 decisively with volumes to show strength and then 5310 is 52-week high hit in January which has to be crossed. Only one sign has been on the side of bulls and that has been the long series of rising tops and bottoms, any sustained move below 5090 and the trend may get broken. 5000 Put has been very active and normally this would provide good support in deep correction intraday so cutting this level would mean downtrend can resume. Major Index being in such a small range indicates a big move in days to come and direction would be known by breakout but caution is advised at current levels. Investors can accumulate good stocks as correction would be an opportunity to buy but short-term players and traders may find it difficult as stocks are not moving even 2-3% intraday.
Advance Tax numbers for Q4 would start soon early next week and those would be closely watched as that can dictate further trend for the market. This market is becoming very stock-specific but being light is advisable as such a narrow range normally would give a move of 8-10% on index also.
Stocks Looking Good:
Value: AIA ENG, APIL, ABB
Technically Strong: BRFL, ANANTRAJ
Supp 5080/5000/4925 Res 5187/5250/5360