Thursday, September 04, 2008

United States presidential election of 2009- a view by A.K.Prabhakar

The United States presidential election of 2008, scheduled for Tuesday November 4, 2008 will be the 56th consecutive quadrennial United States presidential election and will select the President of the United States and Vice President of the United States. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.

Bristol palin, 17, (center) held her brother as her mother, Sarah Palin, stood with Sen. McCain at an Ohio campaign stop Friday (29/08/2008).

On August 28 McCain offered Senator Sarah Palin the vice presidential spot just moments after their meeting concluded.

Facts: U.S hasn’t had a women president or Vice-president while most of the world countries have had women at high post, so called 2nd biggest demo-crac(z)y has failed, while fundamentalist Iran had 2 woman Vice-president 1997-2005 Vice-President Prof. Dr. Masoumek Ebtekar, Iran and Currently from 2005- Vice-President Fatemeh Javadi, Iran. Twist and Turn: Barack Obama has been in lead as per survey and if he wins he will be the first non-white to do so and Democrats had a woman or Non-white choice but republics had to do catch up game which can be filled in by Sarah Palin in my view and the one sided contest has changed into a tough touch and go. What matters most are people who vote on 4November and to whom they vote.,_2008 U.S election data

As per U.S laws a person can’t be a president for more than 2term each term is 4years.

Why do we need to know about U.S election 2009?

Traditionally Indian market and Global market has reacted to U.S election I have presented a graph below where 1992 and 2000 have seen major bear phase and even in 1996 we did see major correction. And now in run-up election in 2009 we are seeing a correction which has extended from Jan2008 till now and may extend till Jan-Feb2009.

When do you see recovery coming?

Past record of 8year rally, high in 1992 saw a low made in 1993 and High in 2000 saw a low made in 2001 and most important is the all time high was crossed only in 1994 after 1992 high and 2004 after 2000 high. So we have made a high in 2008 and low can be possible in 2009 and new high possibility arises in 2010 or after that.

What would be the impact to Global market?

U.S policy undergoes major changes in an 8year cycle and that have impacted global economies in major way. While father and son Bush attacked Gulf (Iraq) in there respective term which saw high Crude oil price, Clinton term saw a surplus of $599 and Crude prices were in control.

What impact it would give to Indian market?

After almost a gap of 17-18years U.S payroll data and employment data is worst and there is a feeling that U.S outsourcing to India and other Asian countries has to be controlled and visa rules made strict, this has been election issue from 1997, 2001 and 2005 and this time the impact has been worst in 20years. This can impact Tech, BPO, KPO and other outsourcing industries, many are skeptical real impact will be known latter.

Which sector would benefit?

Alternate energy would be one major sector to watch, and Carbon credit (Non-polluting) Industries can benefit as new Govt may favor reduction in green house gas emission.

Senator Barack Obama

Obama stated that if elected he would enact budget cuts in the range of tens of billions of dollars, stop investing in "unproven" missile defense systems, not "weaponize" space, "slow development of future combat systems," and work towards eliminating all nuclear weapons. Obama favors ending development of new nuclear weapons, reducing the current U.S. nuclear stockpile, enacting a global ban on production of fissile material, and seeking negotiations with Russia in order to take ICBMs off high alert stat.

Highlight: Many fear that Indian Nuclear deal may face problem if it doesn’t pass through before President Bush term ends.

Senator John McCain

If inaugurated in 2009 at age 72 years and 144 days, he would be the oldest U.S. president upon ascension to the presidency, and the second-oldest president to be inaugurated.

On the economy, McCain says he would make the Bush tax cuts permanent instead of letting them expire, he would eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax so as to assist the middle-class, he would double the personal exemption for dependents, reduce the corporate tax rate, and offer a new research and development tax credit. At the same time, he pledges to eliminate pork-barrel spending, freeze nondefense discretionary spending for a year or more, and reduce Medicare growth. McCain is also opposed to high salaries and lucrative severance deals of corporate CEOs. Another proposal of the Arizona senator is to build 45 new nuclear reactors by 2030, in order to fight climate change and establish U.S. energy independence.

Conclude: U.S election has always had its impact on Global markets and Indian markets and this time possibility of Indian election following (Before May2009) and SEBI policy silent about PN-Notes which expires in March2009 makes investors to go slow. Sector rotation, many get struck up as new policy initiative changes the leadership in growth sector. As a long term investor above 3-5years I would be bullish on Indian markets and this would be the market which would lead the Global recovery, but problem is many fail to understand long-term. Market to correct from peak of 20,000 levels started distribution from November 2007 till January 2008 3months and few days of false rally one should not get carried away

Quote: When we were young kids growing up in America, we were told to eat our vegetables at dinner and not leave them. Mothers said, think of the starving children in India and finish the dinner.”

And now I tell my children: 'Finish your homework. Think of the children in India who would make you starve, if you don't?' THE WORLD IS FLAT- BY THOMAS FRIEDMAN

Recap: I was going through the entire news summary I have sent from Nov2007 to Jan2008. November2007 in Bangalore seminar a market correction from 20,500 to 14,000 levels was predicted and announced and time period was given as next 3months. I went through all the mails I sent many interesting facts, loads of warning of coming crash we have talked about 8year cycle and we were first, 7/1/2008 we talked about how U.S market correction will impact Indian market- Just a sample below.

Market summary for January 3rd 2008-A.K.Prabhakar (for use of ANANDRATHI)

When caution is given traders and short term investor short sell the markets and they get trapped, caution is given seeing excesses in market, euphoria, rampant manipulation which is part of euphoric bull markets. Predicting the top & bottom of any market is very difficult. we have almost 1000 stocks hitting upper circuit on average which is never good for healthy markets, Many want tips and news and not quality research report and no one is ready do basic homework.

Many rumors are spread on Reliance energy IPO that markets are held till that and Reliance pack will move heavily from today, these are news and rumors spread on vested interest. Fundamental is the one which is time tested and has proved over the years to be beneficial. Insiders and manipulators have never crossed one cycle of markets (4 to 8 years), so please understand the dynamics of markets and take your risk.

Author A.K.Prabhakar

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