Monday, September 01, 2008


NIFTY (4360 +146 pts)

Supp 4315/4280/4250 Res 4400/4435/4480

SENSEX (14564 +516 pts)

Supp 14460/14350/14220 Res 14670/14790/14900

Review of the previous session:-

  • It was a solid start after many lackluster trading sessions as markets shrug away the gloomy mood on the first day of a news series. Fall in inflation and crude prices added the needed boost for the bulls as Sensex closed up by more than 500 points.

  • Banks, realty and metals were major gainers. Only 1 stock CAIRN closed in the negative from the Nifty 50.

  • BSE Breadth 1851 Adv- 790 Dec NSE Breadth 969 Adv-239 Dec Upper Circuit -187 Lower Circuit –109

  • BSE Vol Rs 5430 Cr NSE Vol Rs 10626 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 43170 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 364 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 281 Cr provisionally. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 1015 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 447 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 30423 Cr and Options is 20232 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $837.70/oz Nymex Crude $115.59/bbl

  • SGX Nifty Index Futures (Singapore) 4315 (-45 pts) at 7.35 am

  • Indian economy recorded its slowest growth for any quarter in over three years at 7.9 per cent owing to a dismal performance by industry. The deceleration was on expected lines as a tight monetary policy by RBI to control over 13-year high inflation had made borrowings of the industry costlier, impacting output of growth engines, particularly manufacturing.

F&O observations:-

  • Long build-up – KS Oil, Noida, Titan, Infosys, Moser, BhartiAir, IDFC, Educomp, Renuka, Balrampur, BankIndia, ITC, Punj, RelCap, BHEL, NagarConst, ONGC, IVRCLInfra, TCS, IFCI, RNRL, SBIN

  • Short build-up – Sun TV, MahSeamless

  • OI 62726 Cr (+6048 Cr) Nifty OI Up 2% PCR 1.37 (from 1.36)

  • It was bullish all the day through as money flowed into many stocks on the first day of settlement. BankNifty and GT Offshore saw major short-covering indicating some cap on upside for those instruments.

Global markets:-

  • U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday, led lower by tech shares after computer maker Dell warned that companies worldwide are cutting back on technology spending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down by 171 points with all 30 constituents closing in the negative.

Outlook for 01 September, 2008:-

  • The trend is still uncertain with volumes not confirming the rally. A weak opening on the back of negative global markets is not ruled out but Nifty has strong supports at 4315 and 4280. Major selling is possible only below 4280. Nifty to face resistance at 4430 and 4480 going up.

  • Bullish stocks in short-term :- NTPC, NIIT Tech, TCS, Welspun Guj

  • Negative stocks :- Chambal, DLF

  • April-July No Hit Rs 1, 15,980 Cr against Annual Target of Rs 1, 33,287 Cr

Indicating clearly that managing the fiscal deficit is going to be an uphill task for the government, official data released on Friday said the fiscal deficit in just the first four months of the financial year touched 87% of the level targeted for 2008-09. According to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), fiscal deficit for April-July stood at Rs 1,15,980 crore against the annual target of Rs 1,33,287 crore.

  • The Reserve Bank of India released its Annual Report for 2007-2008.

Overall Performance

The Indian economy continued to perform well during 2007-08, although the growth moderated marginally. This was the third year in succession when the Indian economy achieved a growth rate of 9 per cent and above. This was also the highest average growth rate achieved during any three year period in the history of independent India. During each of the last three years, the growth rate of agriculture was well above the trend growth rate with foodgrains production touching a new high in each of the last two years. Industry also registered robust growth with the growth rate in the previous year being in double digits. Services exhibited double digit growth in all the three years. Although the Indian economy has been generally performing well in the post-reform period, the performance during the last three years was indeed noteworthy and it was second only to China among the major countries,

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Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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