Sunday, June 08, 2008


NIFTY (4627 -49 pts)

Supp 4480/4440/4240 Res 4665/4700/4750

SENSEX (15572 -197 pts)

Supp 15300/14960/14670 Res 15690/15800/16000

Close below 15300 will be bad for the markets and we may test around 12300-12500 levels after that. Opening below 15300 will add impetus to the downtrend.

Review of the previous session:-

  • Opening was strong as Nifty did test 4740 levels. But overhead supply was too much to take us once again around 4600 levels. Volumes were very low. Inflation surged to 8.24% vs 8.10%.

  • BSE Breadth 1125 Adv-1524 Dec NSE Breadth 446 Adv-743 Dec Upper Circuit - 127 Lower Circuit – 145

  • BSE Vol Rs 5245 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12589 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 42888 Cr

  • FIIs bought Rs 76 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 400 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 54 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 253 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 37958 Cr and Options is 18859 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $899/oz Nymex Crude $138.54/bbl 1$ = Rs 43.04

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – CAIRN, M&M, Ster, Aptech

  • Bearish build-up – Neyveli, Bomdyeing, ITC, IDFC, DLF, Ranbaxy, GAIL, Bharti

  • Indian Volatility Index 26.46 (-12.73%)

  • OI 70778 Cr (+1838 Cr) Nifty OI up 3% PCR 1.53 (from 1.64)

  • The stocks those rallied in the morning bounce were mostly because of short covering and only a handful of stocks showed long build-up. So still there is more pain to come before we can see any meaningful rally.

Outlook for 9 June, 2008:-

  • Dow Jones fell the most in 15 months on surging crude and unemployment. The crude has risen $16 in last 2 days to top $139.

  • Our markets to open gap-down and we may see a knee-jerk reaction following weak global cues. Banking and realty may be worst affected.

  • We are in danger of breaking a 9-month support level around 4450-4480 (Chart). It is not advisable to hurry up for buying. We should let the markets settle as we will get the opportunity to buy once some bottom is found.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

No Picks

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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