Tuesday, June 17, 2008


NIFTY (4572 +55 pts)

Supp 4530/4475/4430 Res 4620/4655/4680

We have closed above 4556 yesterday and that should give way to more bounce around 4650-4700. In deep intraday correction, 4475 and 4430 are good supports below which we may assume that pullback rally is over.

SENSEX (15395 +206 pts)

Supp 15300/15130/15000 Res 15520/15640/15750

Review of the previous session:-

  • Stocks surged higher in opening trade but drifted somewhat intraday. Sensex could close up by more than 200 points as banks and real estate stocks recovered. Volumes were worse than Friday, breadth improved a bit.

  • Advance Tax figures (In Rs Cr) :- SBI 663 vs 503, ICICI Bank 340 vs 250, Reliance 340 vs 295, Bajaj Auto 50 vs 60, HDFC 140 vs 95

  • BSE Breadth 1776 Adv-872 Dec NSE Breadth 823 Adv-346 Dec Upper Circuit - 249 Lower Circuit – 98

  • BSE Vol Rs 4537 Cr NSE Vol Rs 10725 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 40166 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 547 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 293 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 167 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 224 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 41158 Cr and Options is 21698 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $886.30/oz Nymex Crude $134.61/bbl

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up –Welguj, GMR Infra, GAIL, BankNifty, Bajaj Hind

  • Bearish build-up – MahLife, McDowell, Titan, NIIT, Sesa

  • OI 81403 Cr (+236 Cr) Nifty OI down 3% PCR 1.60 (from 1.61)

  • Nifty saw some short-covering. Basis also decreased from around 32 to flat. The rally was mostly due to short-covering yesterday and may be that is why we saw a slow drifting finish to a rocking start. More short-covering is not ruled out but for that we have to get past resistance at 4650-4700 levels.

Outlook for 17 June, 2008:-

  • Markets to open flattish but intraday correction should find support around 4530 levels on the Nifty. The bounce can last until 4650-4700 levels.

  • Advance tax numbers are out and banks have shown major growth. Banks have already been hammered in recent past and more short-covering is possible in that sector. ICICI Bank should lead and can target 820-830 levels.

  • 15700-15800 can be the place from where supply can come, so one should watch the markets around those levels.

Ideas for Trading (for short-term position):-

Bata (148.35):- Buy for target of 165-168. Keep SL at 140.

NIIT Tech (146.35):- The stock is on the way towards 165 and one should buy around 138-142 levels with SL 130.

Catch them falling (Ideas for Investment):-

No Picks

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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