Thursday, May 22, 2008


NIFTY (5117 +12 pts)

Supp 5080/5030/4930 Res 5168/5200/5265

Nifty did hold 5050-5030 support yesterday. But one should be cautious with his longs and dedicate only 30-35% of cash in the market. Rest should be kept for bad times when there will be great opportunities for buying.

SENSEX (17243 +12 pts)

Supp 17140/17000/16900 Res 17400/17525/17620

Review of the previous session:-

· Markets opened sharply down but 5050 levels provided support. Metal stocks rose. Reliance helped us from a big fall as the stock rallied nearly 3%.

· BSE Breadth 1710 Adv-1009 Dec NSE Breadth 771 Adv-433 Dec Upper Circuit - 289 Lower Circuit – 105

· BSE Vol Rs 7126 Cr NSE Vol Rs 15279 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 39481 Cr

· FIIs sold Rs 776 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 452 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 562 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 414 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 43698 Cr and Options is 22983 Cr.

· Additional Data:- Gold $928.60/Oz Nymex Crude $133.17/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.9950

F&O observations:-

· Bullish build-up – Tata Tea, HOEC, IRB, IFCI, Voltas, Axis, RCom, Grasim, CAIRN, ITC, SBI, Praj, Tata Chem, Bombay Dyeing, Hind Petro, Nagar Fert, IDEA, Reliance

· Bearish build-up – Bharat Forge, Hindalco, Sesa Goa, PFC, Tech Mah, NTPC, HDFC Bank, BankIndia, JPAsso, GNFC, HCC, DLF, Cipla, SAIL, Hind Unilever

· Indian Volatility Index 27.86 (+11.48%)

· OI 82369 Cr (+3082 Cr) Nifty OI up 3% PCR 1.44 (previous 1.43)

· Kotak Bank added fresh shorts yesterday. The stock looks weak on graph and can target 675-680 on the downside.

Outlook for 22 May, 2008:-

· Markets to open weak on Crude rally past 130 as any economy which is dependent on crude imports is going to suffer when crude is at such a high. Break of 17000 on the sensex should be negative for the day.

· We have had a lower top of 17497 against 17735 for the Sensex. Crucial support for the Sensex stands at 16900 breaking which we may see 16300 levels. Looking at upside, breakout above 17630 is necessary to be more bullish.

· This has always been a pullback rally from 14677 to 17735. We don’t know if it has ended, but it looks that the end is near. If it has really ended, the fall can be very sharp and the next rally may take a lot of time to develop. So it is advisable to be very selective and protect as much capital as possible.

Results Today (22 May):- Apollo Sindhuri, Bajaj Holdings, Balaji Tele, Core Proj, Cummins, Dalmia Cem, Dishman, Garware Wall, GTC, Havells, Rana Sug, Tata Coffee

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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