Wednesday, May 28, 2008


NIFTY (4859 -16 pts)

Supp 4845/4815/4780 Res 4885/4930/4975

SENSEX (16275 -73 pts)

Supp 16200/15950/15840 Res 16340/16450/16560

We have not been able to trade above 16650 yesterday. With F&O expiry on Thursday, we have to see if it happens until that time, failing which we can see 15600 quickly.

Review of the previous session:-

  • Markets remained up for most part of the day but selling from higher levels in late trade forced a close in the negative. Banking stocks continued to see selling pressure as SBI was one of the top losers. Select IT stocks gained. Breadth improved a little bit.

  • BSE Breadth 922 Adv-1760 Dec NSE Breadth 352 Adv-872 Dec Upper Circuit - 143 Lower Circuit – 168

  • BSE Vol Rs 5108 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11569 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 49968 Cr

  • FIIs sold Rs 496 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 529 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 233 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 36 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 47113 Cr and Options is 22568 Cr.

  • Additional Data:- Gold $906.60/oz Nymex Crude $128.85/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.9350

F&O observations:-

  • Bullish build-up – BHEL, Tata Comm, Tata Motors, Chambal, Sterlite Ind

  • Bearish build-up – OBC, Unitech, SBI

  • Indian Volatility Index 28.59 (-13.39%)

  • OI 85501 Cr (+1855 Cr) Nifty OI up 4% PCR 1.25 (previous 1.27)

  • Nifty futures saw more shorting but we didn’t go much below Monday lows and that indicates some kind of strength. Volatility is expected to remain high as expiry is just a day away. Nifty has strong support between 4780-4800 levels. Banking has been the leader in this fall and some short covering is not ruled out in those stocks.

Outlook for 28 May, 2008:-

  • Crude has eased to below $130 levels and it should please the bulls somewhat. US Markets had a small rally as Dow Jones closed up by 68 points.

  • Our markets to open flat to negative. Nifty should find support around 4815-4825 levels and some recovery may be seen before we witness further correction.

  • Reliance Industries has major support at 2480 and any close below that level will weaken that stock. It is a heavyweight. In addition to that SBI and ONGC are already seeing some selling pressure; so the fall can be like a panic.

  • Nifty resistance is placed at 4930 and 4975. The bounce can take us around these levels. Surprise moves in individual stocks are possible with F&O expiry near.

  • Amtek Auto (296):- Buy with SL of 280 and Target 330-335. The rally can be quick once it crosses 307 levels.

FII stake in top companies back to June 2005 levels

Crompton – Good going

Results Today (28 May):- Bharat Gears, Britannia, Emami, Godrej Ind, Hind Dorr-Oliver, ICRA, IVR Prime, IVRCL Infra, JM Fin, M&M, Pidilite, Shreyans Ind, Tata Mot, UCAL Fuel

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

No comments: