DAILY REPORT FOR 30 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (4835 -83 pts)

Supp 4800/4760/4700 Res 4875/4910/4950

We have held on to 4800 yesterday and next important support after that is 4760.

SENSEX (16316 -209 pts)

Supp 16190/15950/15570 Res 16400/16560/16670

Review of the previous session:-

• The pullback continued in first half but supply came from higher levels and we got sold off in second half of the session. Auto, Banking were major losers. LT was the top gainer after announcing 1:1 bonus.

• BSE Breadth 1115 Adv-1537 Dec NSE Breadth 437 Adv-762 Dec Upper Circuit - 126 Lower Circuit – 144

• BSE Vol Rs 6230 Cr NSE Vol Rs 18173 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 64758 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 1277 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 698 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 360 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 103 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 36574 Cr and Options is 14345 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $881.20/oz Nymex Crude $126.62/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.4750

F&O observations:-

• Bullish build-up – LT, Satyam, Guj Alkali, Ranbaxy, Wipro, PowerGrid

• Bearish build-up – DCB, Bharti, Titan, CAIRN, Renuka, MTNL, ITC, Suzlon, NTPC, TCS, Tata Mot, Tata Steel, Reliance

• Indian Volatility Index 28.08 (-13.94%)

• OI 58507 Cr (-31015 Cr) Nifty OI up 8%

Outlook for 30 May, 2008:-

• Average of official Inflation estimates for today is 7.96% vs 7.82% last week. Any figure above 8.1% may be alarming.

• Markets to open positive but 4910 is expected to provide some resistance to early rally. Market is expected to remain range-bound between 4800-4900 until the announcement of inflation. Realty and Banks may see further selling if inflation surprises negatively. Fuel price decision is going to come before 31^st May and government is adept in giving such announcements when markets are not trading. So it is advisable to be light on positions going into weekend.

• JP Associates is looking weak and the stock may reach 190 levels. CMP 225.

• Sesa Goa (4128):- Buy with SL 4050 for target of 4280-4300 in a day or two. Sesa Goa and Alok Textiles are stocks which one can accumulate in market corrections. They should perform well in longer term.

Results Today (30 May):- Colgate, Dabur Pharma, Deepak Fert, GSFC, GTN Ind, NagarConst, Sanghvi Mov, Sobha, VLS Fin, Sun Pharma, Tata Tea, Punj Lloyd, Indo Tech

Weekly inflation is within RBI target, says IMF http://www.indiainfoline.com/news/innernews.asp?storyId=68761&lmn=1

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 29 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (4918 +59 pts)

Supp 4885/4850/4800 Res 4935/4975/5010

SENSEX (16525 +249 pts)

Supp 16420/16320/16200 Res 16630/16740/16850

Review of the previous session:-

• After remaining sideways for most of the day, recovery came in late trade. Techs, Metals and FMCG were major gainers. Banks rallied on short covering. Capital Goods were under pressure as BHEL was one of the top losers. Private oil companies like Essar Oil and CAIRN declined as Left demanded to impose windfall taxes on them.

• BSE Breadth 1312 Adv-1358 Dec NSE Breadth 624 Adv-570 Dec Upper Circuit - 137 Lower Circuit – 138

• BSE Vol Rs 5431 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13387 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 56333 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 883 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 527 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 522 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 234 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 47957 Cr and Options is 22949 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $905/oz Nymex Crude $131.03/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.75

F&O observations:-

• Bullish build-up – Chambal, Tata Comm, Sasken, Bharti, Mphasis, Nagarfert, CESC, ITC, Reliance, Infosys, Ambuja Cem, TCS, DLF, Hindalco

• Bearish build-up – M&M, Aban, BHEL, Crompton, Sun TV, ONGC, LT, Suzlon, CAIRN, Essar Oil

• Indian Volatility Index 32.63 (+14.13%)

• OI 89525 Cr (+4024 Cr) Nifty OI up 5% PCR 1.29 (previous 1.25)

• Banks (Axis, Kotak and SBI) and Sugar (Bajaj Hind, Renuka, Balrampur) rallied the most but big of the part it was due to short covering in F&O. Capital Goods stocks such as BHEL, LT and Crompton Greaves saw fresh shorting. More covering is expected in banks today, particularly in ICICI Bank. Today being the last day of derivatives expiry for the month of May, roller-coaster ride can be possible in late trade.

Outlook for 29 May, 2008:-

• Markets are expected to open flat to positive. But selling from higher levels around 4980-5000 is not ruled out in later part of the session. One should be light on positions and cut leveraged long positions in this rally as we are not out of the woods yet. Alok Textiles, KPIT and NIIT Tech look defensive buys, naturally one is advised to buy only in cash.

• GDP numbers for first quarter of this year are expected to come out on 31^st May and those will be watched pretty closely. That, coupled with Advance Tax figures and IIP data in Mid-June may decide further course for the market. First quarter results hold the key going forward. On the other hand, we are facing political uncertainty about Oil pricing. Leftists are demanding to tax private oil companies as those companies are earning abnormally high profits in the party’s view. Such a measure looks illogical and if really implemented, stocks like Reliance Ind, CAIRN and Essar Oil may suffer.

Results Today (29 May):- GMR Ind, GTN Text, Larsen, National Fert, Patspin, Pricol, LITL, NTPC, HPCL, Ipca, TNPL, Orchid, Cinemax, Radico Khaitan, Hyderabad Ind, Adlabs, Aegis, Power Grid

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 28 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (4859 -16 pts)

Supp 4845/4815/4780 Res 4885/4930/4975

SENSEX (16275 -73 pts)

Supp 16200/15950/15840 Res 16340/16450/16560

We have not been able to trade above 16650 yesterday. With F&O expiry on Thursday, we have to see if it happens until that time, failing which we can see 15600 quickly.

Review of the previous session:-

• Markets remained up for most part of the day but selling from higher levels in late trade forced a close in the negative. Banking stocks continued to see selling pressure as SBI was one of the top losers. Select IT stocks gained. Breadth improved a little bit.

• BSE Breadth 922 Adv-1760 Dec NSE Breadth 352 Adv-872 Dec Upper Circuit - 143 Lower Circuit – 168

• BSE Vol Rs 5108 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11569 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 49968 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 496 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 529 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 233 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 36 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 47113 Cr and Options is 22568 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $906.60/oz Nymex Crude $128.85/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.9350

F&O observations:-

• Bullish build-up – BHEL, Tata Comm, Tata Motors, Chambal, Sterlite Ind

• Bearish build-up – OBC, Unitech, SBI

• Indian Volatility Index 28.59 (-13.39%)

• OI 85501 Cr (+1855 Cr) Nifty OI up 4% PCR 1.25 (previous 1.27)

• Nifty futures saw more shorting but we didn’t go much below Monday lows and that indicates some kind of strength. Volatility is expected to remain high as expiry is just a day away. Nifty has strong support between 4780-4800 levels. Banking has been the leader in this fall and some short covering is not ruled out in those stocks.

Outlook for 28 May, 2008:-

• Crude has eased to below $130 levels and it should please the bulls somewhat. US Markets had a small rally as Dow Jones closed up by 68 points.

• Our markets to open flat to negative. Nifty should find support around 4815-4825 levels and some recovery may be seen before we witness further correction.

• Reliance Industries has major support at 2480 and any close below that level will weaken that stock. It is a heavyweight. In addition to that SBI and ONGC are already seeing some selling pressure; so the fall can be like a panic.

• Nifty resistance is placed at 4930 and 4975. The bounce can take us around these levels. Surprise moves in individual stocks are possible with F&O expiry near.

• Amtek Auto (296):- Buy with SL of 280 and Target 330-335. The rally can be quick once it crosses 307 levels.

FII stake in top companies back to June 2005 levels

http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?leftnm=10&bKeyFlag=BO&autono=324230

Crompton – Good going http://business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?leftnm=4&autono=324240

Results Today (28 May):- Bharat Gears, Britannia, Emami, Godrej Ind, Hind Dorr-Oliver, ICRA, IVR Prime, IVRCL Infra, JM Fin, M&M, Pidilite, Shreyans Ind, Tata Mot, UCAL Fuel

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 27 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (4875 -71 pts)

Supp 4820/4780/4710 Res 4900/4950/4990

SENSEX (16348 -301 pts)

Supp 16300/16210/15950 Res 16410/16500/16650

We have tested support at 16300 yesterday but Sensex closing below 16500 is negative from technical point of view and if we can not cross 16650 in next 2 sessions, the downtrend may accentuate and we may target 15600 levels in days to come.

Review of the previous session:-

• Indices opened with big gap-down but after that only sideways movement was seen. It was like distribution the whole day but no major intraday downtrend was witnessed. Banking, Capital Goods and Metals were major losers. Tech stocks saw some buying interest. Breadth was very negative but volumes were quite poor.

• BSE Breadth 667 Adv-2043 Dec NSE Breadth 164 Adv-1053 Dec Upper Circuit - 125 Lower Circuit – 202

• BSE Vol Rs 4426 Cr NSE Vol Rs 11432 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 44103 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 1337 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 842 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 361 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 387 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 46521 Cr and Options is 22284 Cr.

• Additional Data:- 1$ = Rs 42.7250

F&O observations:-

• Bullish build-up – Crompton Greaves, Glaxo

• Bearish build-up – Bajaj Hind, Renuka, Federal Bank, Ambuja Cem, Chambal, GE Ship, AbirlaNuvo, ITC, Maruti

• Indian Volatility Index 33.01 (-3%)

• OI 83646 Cr (+1720 Cr) Nifty OI up 9% PCR 1.27 (previous 1.31)

• Sugar stocks saw a lot of short build-up. More calls and less puts addition moderated the PCR to 1.27. Nifty added more shorts as FIIs must have gone short on Index Futures for hedging the position. A pull-back rally towards 4980 is not ruled out.

Outlook for 27 May, 2008:-

• Markets to open positive. There are no cues from Dow Jones today as they were shut yesterday. Asian markets have opened firm. Nifty can give a small bounce towards 4950/4980 levels but one should try to exit longs in this rally as it may be short-lived. Volatility will remain as F&O expiry rollover is taking shape.

• IDEA (110) is consolidating nicely and it is showing bullish formations in spite of overall bearish markets. The stock may be a defensive play for an investor as it is expected to rise quickly when market gives pullbacks. The stock has been a slow-mover and one can buy it for 10-15% returns. Short-term players can keep a SL around 103.

• Many stocks gapped down yesterday and we should wait for some kind of stability. Bottom-fishing should be avoided as only a few stocks like Suzlon, IDEA and Crompton Greaves are showing some buying.

Why is there no other option than to increase petroleum product prices in India? http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/05/27/stories/2008052750430900.htm

Results Today (27 May):- Gwalior Chem, Opto Circ, Sundaram Fin, Tata Coffee, VLS Fin

http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 26 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (4946 -79 pts)

Supp 4930/4900/4825 Res 4985/5010/5040

SENSEX (16649 -258 pts)

Supp 16625/16500/16300 Res 16780/16960/17050

Review of the previous session:-

• Starting indecisive trade initially, indices got sold off after announcement of inflation. Realty, Metals and Auto stocks faced most of the selling. Oil and gas stocks like CAIRN saw profit-taking as Crude saw some selling pressure from around $135. BPCL, HPCL and IOC were gainers on the expectations of fuel price rise next week.

• BSE Breadth 795 Adv-1924 Dec NSE Breadth 260 Adv-942 Dec Upper Circuit - 165 Lower Circuit – 158

• BSE Vol Rs 5389 Cr NSE Vol Rs 12719 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 41317 Cr

• FIIs sold Rs 654 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 750 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 1006 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 62 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 45148 Cr and Options is 22151 Cr.

• Additional Data:- Gold $925.80/Oz Nymex Crude $132.19/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.75

F&O observations:-

• Bullish build-up – Tulip, Nicolas Piramal

• Bearish build-up – ITC, PNB, IVRCL Infra, GMR Infra, Tata Motors, ONGC, Maruti

• Indian Volatility Index 34.03 (-2.38%)

• OI 81925 Cr (+485 Cr) Nifty OI up 8% PCR 1.31 (previous 1.34)

• PCR has eased to 1.31 as we are close to important support at 4910-4930 from where we bounced last time around. Any fall below this level may give sharp correction towards 4800. With expiry just 4 sessions away, volatility should be high.

Outlook for 26 May, 2008:-

• Markets to open negative on weak US Markets and Crude again settling above $130. Sensex has closed below the 2-month support line and any break below 16500 can start a bigger correction. (see the graph)

• Maruti (789) is looking weak and the stock can target 730-740 levels on the downside. Move past 818 should negate the view.

Results Today (26 May):- eClerx, Eimco Elecon, Elecon Eng, EKC, HTMT Glob, JMC, Kalpataru Power, Lakshmi Vilas, Omaxe, RK Forge, REC, STFC

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 23 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5025 -92 pts)
Supp 5000/4930/4780 Res 5065/5110/5135

SENSEX (16907 -336 pts)
Supp 16860/16600/16310 Res 17020/17150/17260

Review of the previous session:-
· Indices closed sharply lower on the back of high crude and global negative sentiment. Banking, Realty stocks were major losers on market talks of inflation being above 8% this time around.
· BSE Breadth 1040 Adv-1684 Dec NSE Breadth 333 Adv-878 Dec Upper Circuit - 180 Lower Circuit – 104
· BSE Vol Rs 6106 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13532 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 45076 Cr
· FIIs sold Rs 537 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 415 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 309 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 297 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 43649 Cr and Options is 22473 Cr.
· Additional Data:- Gold $918.30/Oz Nymex Crude $130.90/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.9750
F&O observations:-
· Bullish build-up – India Cem, Dr Reddy, Bajaj Holding
· Bearish build-up – Tata Comm, ABB, Wipro, Rolta, Suzlon, Infosys, IDFC, ITC, Maruti, DLF, SBI, Grasim, GMR Infra, BPCL, HPCL, ACC, BHEL, Ambuja Cem, ICICI Bank
· Indian Volatility Index 34.86 (+25.13%)
· OI 81439 Cr (-929 Cr) Nifty OI up 2% PCR 1.34 (previous 1.44)
· Most of the stocks added short positions in addition to Nifty. PCR declined sharply indicating square up of many puts. Cement stocks had short positions mostly but India Cement defied the peers with minor gains.
Outlook for 23 May, 2008:-
· Markets to open flat to positive as Crude has given back some of its gains. It closed around $130 after hitting top above $135. Dow Jones closed up by 24 points and Asian markets have also opened firm.
· A lot of Put square-up looks to have happened yesterday and we did not fall below psychological level of 5000 on the Nifty. Sensex did close below 17000 but support at 16900 is still not broken on the closing basis. We will get weekly closing today and that being below 16900 will be bearish for the next week.
· We are very near to a 2-month trendline support and a break below yesterday lows would make matters more bearish. Positive global markets can give us a pullback around 17050-17150. But overall picture is still bearish and we should remain cautious. Fall below 5000 on the Nifty would be negative for the day and we can test 4930 after that.
· There are 2 announcements to watch out today: - one is inflation figure and the other is petrol pricing strategy by the government. The inflation is feared to be above 8% by many market players but official estimates expect it to be around 7.79% vs 7.83% last week.
The government has been following a weird policy of pampering consumers by not raising petrol prices in our country. In May so far, the demand for Diesel has grown by 24% and Petrol by 12% over last year and oil companies say that this is the biggest spurt they have seen in almost a decade. The lax nature of petrol pricing strategy has fired back on the government as they have no legitimate choice other than raising prices. HPCL has already written to the government to raise prices by at least Rs 5/litre. Right now government is compromising oil marketing companies’ losses by subsidizing through ONGC and GAIL. But no government can withstand such a large chunk of subsidies for a long time. So it is like a dilemma whether to raise prices and compound inflation headaches or let the oil companies bleed and make them borrow to their limits.

Oil firms weeks away from bankruptcy http://sify.com/finance/fullstory.php?id=14678154

Results Today (23 May):- BHEL, City Union Bank, Federal Bank, Geojit, India Glycols, ITC, Jenson Nicholson, Jet Air, Minda, Munjal Showa, Repro, VIP



Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 22 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5117 +12 pts)

Supp 5080/5030/4930 Res 5168/5200/5265

Nifty did hold 5050-5030 support yesterday. But one should be cautious with his longs and dedicate only 30-35% of cash in the market. Rest should be kept for bad times when there will be great opportunities for buying.

SENSEX (17243 +12 pts)

Supp 17140/17000/16900 Res 17400/17525/17620

Review of the previous session:-

· Markets opened sharply down but 5050 levels provided support. Metal stocks rose. Reliance helped us from a big fall as the stock rallied nearly 3%.

· BSE Breadth 1710 Adv-1009 Dec NSE Breadth 771 Adv-433 Dec Upper Circuit - 289 Lower Circuit – 105

· BSE Vol Rs 7126 Cr NSE Vol Rs 15279 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 39481 Cr

· FIIs sold Rs 776 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 452 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 562 Cr and sold Stock Futures worth Rs 414 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 43698 Cr and Options is 22983 Cr.

· Additional Data:- Gold $928.60/Oz Nymex Crude $133.17/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.9950

F&O observations:-

· Bullish build-up – Tata Tea, HOEC, IRB, IFCI, Voltas, Axis, RCom, Grasim, CAIRN, ITC, SBI, Praj, Tata Chem, Bombay Dyeing, Hind Petro, Nagar Fert, IDEA, Reliance

· Bearish build-up – Bharat Forge, Hindalco, Sesa Goa, PFC, Tech Mah, NTPC, HDFC Bank, BankIndia, JPAsso, GNFC, HCC, DLF, Cipla, SAIL, Hind Unilever

· Indian Volatility Index 27.86 (+11.48%)

· OI 82369 Cr (+3082 Cr) Nifty OI up 3% PCR 1.44 (previous 1.43)

· Kotak Bank added fresh shorts yesterday. The stock looks weak on graph and can target 675-680 on the downside.

Outlook for 22 May, 2008:-

· Markets to open weak on Crude rally past 130 as any economy which is dependent on crude imports is going to suffer when crude is at such a high. Break of 17000 on the sensex should be negative for the day.

· We have had a lower top of 17497 against 17735 for the Sensex. Crucial support for the Sensex stands at 16900 breaking which we may see 16300 levels. Looking at upside, breakout above 17630 is necessary to be more bullish.

· This has always been a pullback rally from 14677 to 17735. We don’t know if it has ended, but it looks that the end is near. If it has really ended, the fall can be very sharp and the next rally may take a lot of time to develop. So it is advisable to be very selective and protect as much capital as possible.

Results Today (22 May):- Apollo Sindhuri, Bajaj Holdings, Balaji Tele, Core Proj, Cummins, Dalmia Cem, Dishman, Garware Wall, GTC, Havells, Rana Sug, Tata Coffee

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 21 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5105 -53 pts)
Supp 5050/5020/4970 Res 5125/5160/5260

SENSEX (17230 -204 pts)
Supp 17080/17000/16845 Res 17360/17430/17630
Any gap-down opening at this juncture is really bearish for the Sensex and one should avoid long positions as long as the gap is not closed.

Review of the previous session:-
· Indices opened lower after Asian market weakness in the morning but realty and banking stocks saw continuous selling through the day. Nifty found some support in late trade around 5070 but that buying could not stop Sensex from losing more than 200 points.
· BSE Breadth 1431 Adv-1292 Dec NSE Breadth 644 Adv-554 Dec Upper Circuit - 228 Lower Circuit – 92
· BSE Vol Rs 5940 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13664 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 33290 Cr
· FIIs sold Rs 320 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 0.39 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Index Futures worth Rs 1326 Cr and bought Stock Futures worth Rs 260 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 42017 Cr and Options is 22103 Cr.
· Additional Data:- Gold $920.20/Oz Nymex Crude $129.07/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.64
F&O observations:-
· Bullish build-up – HDIL, CAIRN, JSW Steel, LITL, RPower, Skumar, Suzlon
· Bearish build-up – Voltas, TechMah, PFC, Nicolas Piramal, Corporation, ABB, BankNifty
· Indian Volatility Index 24.99 (+7.48%)
· OI 79286 Cr (+575 Cr) Nifty OI up 4% PCR 1.43 (previous 1.47)
· PCR declined slightly as put square-up and call build-up was seen. But Nifty futures saw some selling as OI increased and FII also sold Rs 1326 Cr of Index Futures. The PCR is still around 1.5 which means 50% more puts than calls. Still the position is in favour of bulls from that angle but we have to see if we can sustain supports around 5020-5030.
Outlook for 21 May, 2008:-
· Nifty has support at 5020 and 5050. Break below 5020 will be negative for the markets. Holding these supports will obviously be bullish but today’s strategy should be to wait and let an hour or so before deciding on any trade. It is better to remain in decent cash levels of 60-70% and make positions from the remaining part only.
· Liquidity from FIIs has been the key for the rally last year for our markets but this year there looks like a change in FII flows. From January to April this year, they have been net sellers whereas they have been net buyers in the same period for the last 6 years. They didn’t buy much last week and Dollar appreciation should not make them buy a lot either.
· CAIRN may remain bullish because of Crude Oil strength but now it seems like one should book profits in the stock. Sell when there are many buyers and buy when there are many sellers.

Results Today (21 May):- Gabriel, Gammon Infra, HDIL, Maha Scooters, Rain Commo, Sirpur Paper, Surya Roshni, Thermax


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 20 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5157 +42 pts)
Supp 5130/5100/5070 Res 5185/5230/5265
Nifty faces good resistance around 5185-5200 levels crossing which test of previous high at 5298 is highly probable. Any correction towards 5070-5100 should be considered as an opportunity to buy. 5030 may be considered as reversal point for the rally.

SENSEX (17434 +81 pts)
Supp 17300/17150/17040 Res 17510/17630/17740

Review of the previous session:-
· Markets opened higher on strong global cues but supply was seen from 17500 levels. The remaining day was range-bound. Metals and Banks were top gainers. Inflation for week ended May 3 stood at 7.83% vs 7.61%.
· BSE Breadth 1547 Adv-1137 Dec NSE Breadth 726 Adv-469 Dec Upper Circuit - 211 Lower Circuit – 103
· BSE Vol Rs 6136 Cr NSE Vol Rs 13429 Cr F&O NSE Vol Rs 37876 Cr
· FIIs bought Rs 475 Cr in cash market and MFs bought 392 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Index Futures worth Rs 74 Cr and Stock Futures worth Rs 384 Cr. Their Outstanding position in Futures is 41157 Cr and Options is 22196 Cr.
· Additional Data:- Gold $900/Oz Nymex Crude $126.29/bbl 1$ = Rs 42.54
F&O observations:-
· Bullish build-up – NagarFert, SCI, Bongaigaon Ref, HCC, Ranbaxy, GE Ship, Bombay Dyeing, Guj Alkali, HDIL, Neyveli, NIIT Tech
· Bearish build-up – Voltas, Renuka, Amtech Auto, Chennai Pet, Crompton, APIL, WelGuj, Dr Reddy
· Indian Volatility Index 23.25 (-19.88%)
· OI 78711 Cr (+1847 Cr) Nifty OI down 1% PCR 1.47 (previous 1.45)
· Nifty saw some short covering yesterday. Higher put addition and increasing PCR should give support from lower levels.
Outlook for 20 May, 2008:-
· Intraday support for the Sensex exists at 17300 below which correction towards 17050-17150 is not ruled out. But as long as we are above 17000, bullish stance should be maintained.
· BHEL (1795):- Buy with SL 1750 for target 1970-1990
· Amara Raja Batteries (194):- The stock is near good support of 182. Buy for target of 218-223.
FIIs are getting lowered returns because of appreciating Dollar vis-à-vis Indian Rupee. Dollar has grown around 7-8% against the local currency. It is like a small pinch for them. If we consider US economy, the Fed has already indicated that it may be done with the rate cuts. Now if they start raising the rates, the liquidity may flow back towards USA. It may or may not happen but is worth keeping in the back of our minds.

CMIE retains GDP growth forecast at 9.5%
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/05/17/stories/2008051752131300.htm
Weakening Asian currencies trim $ returns for FIIs
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/05/18/stories/2008051851120100.htm
Results Today (20 May):- Bank of Baroda, Bharat Forge, Dr Reddy, GMR Infra, GNFC, JK Cem, Mukand, RPG Cables, SCI, Suzlon, TTML



Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 16 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5115 +104 pts)
Supp 5065/5020/4995 Res 5160/5190/5225

SENSEX (17353 +375 pts)
Supp 17250/17080/16990 Res 17390/17500/17740

Outlook for 16 May, 2008:-
· Markets to open positive but Nifty may face resistance around 5165-5190 for the day. Sensex is expected to be in the range of 17500-17250.
· Inflation figures will be out today and they are expected to be a little higher than previous week. Being a long weekend as a result of holiday on Monday, investors may not take aggressive bets home so it is wise to be light on positions today.
· More puts are adding open interest than calls and it shows a lot of shorts in the system. Short-covering is leading to a rally and absence of bad news has trapped the bears. One more thing is that we wanted a closing past 17300 on the Sensex in 3 days and that has happened yesterday. So now intraday dips may come but as long as we are above 17000, the upside can be 17600 and then 18100.
· ABB (1072):- The stock should bounce back towards 1140-1160 levels in a day or two. Buy with SL 1045.
· IDEA Cellular has closed above resistance at 108 and now it should target 117-119 levels. Keep SL at 105.



Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 15 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5011 +54 pts)
Supp 4975/4930/4875 Res 5080/5115/5165

SENSEX (16978 +225 pts)
Supp 16860/16770/16540 Res 17120/17230/17400

Outlook for 15 May, 2008:-
· There seems to be a lot of confusion about the trend of the market and it is giving many opportunities intraday while market is not really moving. Even after big rally yesterday, FIIs remained small buyers in all segments i.e. Cash, Stock Futures and Index Futures. They have not bought much in last 2-3 sessions but they have not sold much too. This indicates the indecision and until any trend is visible, trading opportunities will be plenty.
· But as we have held support levels around 4915 well, the bounce can lead us to 5080 and 5115 at least. 4975-4962 should be considered as a good support for today. Caution is advised below 4962.
· Bata (171):- Buy with SL of 161 for Tgt 190-192
· HDIL (740):- The stock is near trendline support. Buy for target of 860-870 in short-term. Keep SL of 700. It is an ideal buy around 725-730.
Externalities of our market: -
Dollar appreciation is helping Tech, Pharma and Textile stocks and as a result Sensex was up more than 200 points yesterday in spite of a 6% fall in a heavyweight like ONGC. Signs of early monsoon are helping the bulls more as shorts may be trapped at such a moment. Concerns are in the form of rising deficits because of Oil prices and expected slowdown in Indian economy. Statistics say that a $1/barrel rise in crude price increases our Current account deficit by $700mn. Oil prices in our country are not moving with the global prices. One year back, crude was around $60 and we were having almost the same price of petrol and diesel as we have today even when crude has touched $125. The government is pampering the people by having an inelastic approach to pricing of oil in India. If prices were allowed to be raised, a person spending Rs 1000 on Petrol a month would have to shell out nearly Rs 1500 now and that would pinch him. Many people would start saving natural resources and use other means to travel like walking, bicycle. China is an example where people are already aware of the scarcity of petro-products and so many people are already using bicycles there. And now this is a stage where government just can’t act on price-rise as election is near, inflation is already high. Subsidizing oil has led to more demand which is like a boomerang for the government.



Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 14 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (4957 -55 pts)
Supp 4910/4875/4825 Res 4995/5030/5070

SENSEX (16752 -108 pts)
Supp 16620/16500/16310 Res 16860/17050/17160

Outlook for 14 May, 2008:-
· Markets to open weak on the back of serial blasts in Jaipur yesterday evening. Any fall below 16500 on the Sensex is negative and next support level is at 16300. 4875 and 4825 are levels for the Nifty from where it may try to bounce.
· If we sustain the supports around 4900 for the Nifty and 16500 for the Sensex, a quick rally is not ruled out and we can target at least 17200 on the way up.
· Gold View - Gold is looking weak and may target $800 on the downside from current levels around $870.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 13 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5012 +30 pts)

Supp 4970/4945/4910 Res 5035/5065/5100

SENSEX (16860 +123 pts)

Supp 16760/16670/16540 Res 16980/17060/17210

Outlook for 13 May, 2008:-

· Nifty got sold off in early trade yesterday but pulled back from support levels around 4910 to close above 5000 level. India’s Industrial Production grew at the slowest pace since 2002. But it was because of a higher base effect and markets quickly bottomed out after the announcement.

· Sensex closed the gap at 16570 to 16611 yesterday and a pullback rally did happen after that. It may continue but we have to cross 17300 on the Sensex in next 3 trading sessions to show any kind of strength. For today’s trading we can consider 16670 as a point where intraday correction can stop.

· It is better to be stock-specific for the time-being as indices can become a bit volatile. Auto stocks like Maruti, M&M and Tata Motors can rally. Suzlon, IDEA, GDL, Glenmark are other stocks that are looking good and can give 6-8% returns from current levels.

· HCL Tech (287):- Buy with SL of 277 and target 320-330.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 12 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (4982 -99 pts)

Supp 4932/4910/4840 Res 5015/5050/5090

SENSEX (16737 -343 pts)

Supp 16570/16490/16300 Res 16840/16960/17120

Outlook for 12 May, 2008:-

• The correction was expected but now it looks like the pullback rally itself has ended and we may see downtrend. It looks like the May-month syndrome is weighing down on the markets.

• The bounce can come from in-between support levels but overall one should be prepared to see more fall in days to come. Long-term investors will get many opportunities in these times as many value-buys will emerge.

• If one wishes, all profits can be booked. Some times small losses should also be taken as it is always better to take a small loss than the mother of all losses.

• Following stocks were recommended when we started this pullback rally around 18 March, 2008 :- Ranbaxy, Maruti, Cairn, Bata, Purvankara Projects, Amtek Auto, Suzlon, Mundra Port, Renuka Sugar, Asian Electronics, GT Offshore, ONGC, Orchid Chem. Many scrips have performed from this list. Ranbaxy, Maruti, Suzlon can still be kept as investment buys. Rest profits can be booked if yet they are pending. Crompton Greaves has been recommended many a times and those who can wait can keep it for longer timeframe. Keeping 70-75% cash levels is advised so that we can again look at new opportunities whenever they emerge.

• Today markets to open lower on weak global markets but a gap down opening will be bad. Traders need to wait and let the markets settle before they initiate any trade. The current downtrend can take us towards 4850 with support at 4932 and 4910 on the way.

• APIL (609) is looking weak and the stock can target 550 levels on the downside. Crossover of 640 can negate this view.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 9 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5081 -54 pts)

Supp 5040/4990/4960 Res 5120/5160/5200

SENSEX (17080 -259 pts)

Supp 16970/16870/16680 Res 17210/17300/17390

Outlook for 9 May, 2008:-

• Inflation numbers will be announced today and until that no major trend is expected. Sideways movement is anticipated in the first half. The range can be between 5040 to 5120. Sensex has to break above 17230 and sustain there to show good gains. Not doing that will mean more correction towards 16600 in near-term.

• Today's closing being above 17255 for the Sensex can give way to some rally next week.

• As the trend is still uncertain, one is advised to take positions only for very short-term. Investors looking beyond 2-3 year horizon should not worry as the long-term story is very strong. Sensex levels are mere levels and companies do outperform the indices. If Sensex can show 10000 levels, it can show 40-45000 levels also some day. It is how we look at it. Being in strong growth companies is always going to benefit the investor. Take an example of CAIRN. The author had recommended the stock many times from around 210 levels and now it is coming close to the 300 target. Good rewards await for patient investors but people don't like to wait. Trading for instant money is fatal in the stock market.

• IDEA Cellular (106.40):- The stock is showing good formations on graph and it can target 117-119 levels quickly. Buy with SL of 102 on closing basis. Crompton Greaves, GT Offshore look good and should be held as more gains are possible in those stocks.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 8 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5135 -9 pts)

Supp 5075/5040/4990 Res 5160/5200/5230

SENSEX (17339 -33 pts)

Supp 17170/17000/16870 Res 17400/17540/17630

Outlook for 8 May, 2008:-

• Markets to open negative on weak global markets and test of 5075 for the Nifty is not ruled out in early trade. Trend reversal is possible if we close below 4990.

• Reliance Industries is showing good buying and it can keep the bulls hopeful. But other than Tech stocks, no sector is really supporting the markets.

• If correction really comes from current levels, it can be pretty awesome. So we should wait for clear trend to emerge and then only take a decision. Until that, cash is the king.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 7 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5144 -48 pts)

Supp 5110/5075/5040 Res 5190/5235/5270

SENSEX (17373 -117 pts)

Supp 17240/16980/16870 Res 17480/17600/17770

Outlook for 7 May, 2008:-

• We have closed below 200 SMA both for the Nifty (5171) and the Sensex (17445). But sometimes the market may show resilience as it is a very important level. So we may see up-down movement at current levels. Reliance Industries holds the key as the stock can easily target 2780 once it is above 2700. Tech stocks came to the rescue yesterday as dollar appreciated towards Rs 41.

• For today's trading day, Nifty is expected to retrace towards 5200-5230 but break of yesterday low at 5110 should be negative and we can test support at 5075 and 5040 quickly.

• We have seen a rally of more than 3000 points on the Sensex and this can be a decisive time for further trend. Because it looks as a pullback rally so far, we should not be too aggressive at current levels. Avoid leverage and buy only in cash. It is better to be light on quantity while entering new scrips.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 6 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5192 -36 pts)

Supp 5150/5075/5040 Res 5230/5265/5320

SENSEX (17490 -110 pts)

Supp 17425/17240/16980 Res 17570/17650/17870

Outlook for 6 May, 2008:-

• For now we are consolidating nicely above 5150 and fall below that level can give way to some correction. It should be a healthy correction especially after one and half month of a rally.

• Any dip towards 5040 to 5070 should be regarded as healthy and after that we can once again look forward to higher levels. But it is better to remain in 50% cash levels as we should never assume the uptrend to continue. One would do well taking a small loss in scrips which are not moving as per one's wishes. Many times it is better to exit at a small loss than to keep on averaging later.

• For today's trading, markets are expected to open negative. 200 DMA around 5150 should provide good support but below that we can see more correction. Resistance stands at 5260 and 5300. Leverage through Derivatives and margin should be avoided. It is better to stay in good scrips where one is confident enough of the target.

• CAIRN(255) is looking good to target 295-300 levels. Buy with SL 238

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 5 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5228 +63 pts)

Supp 5190/5145/5070 Res 5250/5320/5370

SENSEX (17600 +313 pts)

Supp 17550/17440/17230 Res 17710/17860/17980

Outlook for 5 May, 2008:-

· Banks, Auto and Realty stocks took the indices higher on Friday and the rally is slowly inching towards target of 5350-5400. Auto had been a gross underperformer in the rally so far but it too joined the bull-run and more gains are still possible in that sector.

· Markets to open flat to positive. Earnings season is almost over and now it is up to the liquidity flows to get the market higher. 17850-17950 is where this rally can have a breather. As this looks like a pullback rally, one should book profits regularly in this market. Sector and stock rotation is going to continue until we see any kind of profit-taking.

· For today’s trading, the trend looks sideways with range of the Nifty being 5300 to 5200. Fall below 5190 can take us to 5145. Reliance Industries looks to have another Rs 100 to go which can help the indices.

· Dr Reddy’s Labs (636):- Buy for target of 680-690. Keep SL of 612.

· Alok Textiles (68.90):- The stock can target 81-82 levels in short-term. Buy with SL 63

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 2 MAY, 2008

NIFTY (5165 -30 pts)

Supp 5135/5070/5000 Res 5200/5240/5300

SENSEX (17287 -91 pts)

Supp 17200/17030/16900 Res 17400/17540/17630

Outlook for 2 May, 2008:-

· Markets should open positive. Nifty intraday support is at 5135. Below 5135, correction up to 5070 may happen. If 5135 is maintained, higher levels are possible. Crossing 5240 will give way to a big rally. Being stock-specific is important in such a market.

· The pullback is expected to sustain until we touch 5350-5400 levels but a breather before that is not ruled out. So regular profit-booking is advised.

· DCB (108):- The stock is looking good to target 128-132. Buy with SL below 97.

· With Chennai Super Kings on top in IPL T20 tournament, India Cements stands to gain. Also their cement dispatches in first month of new financial year have been good. So the stock can rally from current levels.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.