Thursday, March 13, 2008


NIFTY: - Open 4869 High 5019 Low 4854 Close 4872 (+7 points)

P/E 20.78 P/B 5.11 Adv 29 Dec 21

Supp 4810/4765/4700 Res 4920/4960/5025

SENSEX: - Open 16541 High 16683 Low 16064 Close 16127 (+4 pts)

Supp 16000/15860/15500 Res 16300/16420/16750


· Markets opened very strong and Sensex was up more than 500 points in early trade. But supply kept the pressure on the market the whole day. IIP data was announced in the sun-outage period and markets lost all its gains as the data didn’t have much to cheer about.

· Metal stocks comprising SAIL and Tata Steel dragged the indices down. Tech stocks were other culprits besides SBI.

· Jan Industrial Production slowed to 5.3%. The big disappointment was the Capital Goods segment which showed 2.2% growth, lowest since April 2002. Consumer Durables continued to post negative growth.


· BSE Vol Rs 7215 Cr Breadth Adv 1271 Dec 1437 Upper Circuit 214 Lower Circuit 153

· NSE Vol Rs 15594 Breadth Adv 543 Dec 651 F&O Vol Rs 44632

· Top Gainers: - Cairn, Tata Comm, Cipla, Unitech, Grasim

Top Losers: - SAIL, Tata Steel, Hindalco, SBI, Satyam

· FIIs turned buyers as per the provisional data. They bought Rs 127 Cr in cash and MFs sold 528 Cr. Foreign investors bought Rs 1386 Cr in Index Futures and bought Rs 200 Cr in Stock Futures. FIIs OI in Index F&O Rs 34750 Cr and in Stock F&O Rs 24666 Cr.

· Total OI 66679 Cr (-728 Cr) PCR at 0.98

· Nifty shed 3% OI. Basis -3.55

· OI Added:- Minifty 9%, BankNifty 9%, Brigade 10%, CorpBank 16%, SAIL 7%, Satyam 6%, Syndi 9%, Triveni 10%, UniPhos 12%

· OI Shed:- Adlabs 7%, Bajaj Auto 11%, BankIndia 25%, Bharti 6%, CBI 15%, Dabur 6%, Essar Oil 16%, GBN 28%, HDIL 6%, IRB 6%, Ispat 10%, NagarFert 6%, Naukri 23%, Nicolas 18%, Nucleus 26%, Redington 7%, REL 12%, RelCap 10%, ShreeCem 10%, Siemens 10%, Tata Chem 10%, Tulip 66%, WelGuj 13%

Indian ADRs: -

Global Markets:-

Stocks fell in US on concerns that Fed will fail to prevent a recession as oil climbed above $110 a barrel, pushing down refiners, banks and retailers. Dow Jones closed down by 46 points. Satyam ADR lost 9%, ICICI Bank lost 5%.

Outlook for Thursday:-

· Unsatisfying IIP data took its toll on the markets yesterday and this thing affects fundamentally. One month of bad data is not a trend, but perhaps it can be a pre-cursor to some exposure cuts for India.

· Next trigger can be the Advance Tax estimates which will be announced in near future as some opinion can be formed about how Q4 results will be.

· 4810 and 4765 are support levels from where a bounce can happen. 4920 and 4960 will provide resistance. Today can be a ranged day between these levels.

· Catch them falling stock: - Tamilnadu Newsprint Ltd (103.55) is a leading player in the paper industry. They are the largest producers of Bagasse based paper in the world. It is a good dividend yield stock too. Buy from investment perspective.

· Buy Sesa Goa (3591) for target of 3850-3900. Keep SL of 3460

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

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