Wednesday, January 03, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 3 JANUARY, 2007


NIFTY
: - Open 3966 High 4017 Low 3965 Close 4007

Supp 3993/3975/3945 Res 4030/4050/4080

SENSEX: - Open 13828 High 13981 Low 13797 Close 13942

Supp 13900/13830/13720 Res 14015/14095/14200

What happened on Tuesday:-

Markets greeted the year 2007 with gains of 155 points on the Sensex. We opened firm and stayed that way all day. There was very good buying in IT and Auto stocks. Smart movers were Satyam Comp, M&M, Bajaj Auto, VSNL and Maruti. Non-index stocks also witnessed very good interest. Nifty once again closed above 4000 yesterday. The only concerning thing was Volumes. They were pretty low as compared to recent past. Though FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 200 Cr(Prov Fig), the gross buy-sell figures were very low.

What shall we witness on Wednesday:-

Previous All time high for Sensex is 14035 and for Nifty it is 4047. We can challenge that in near term. For today, 3987-3992 is good support and we can target 4030-4040 in short term. As volumes are low, stock-specific approach is recommended. We should concentrate on cash stocks.

Where’s the money:-

GIPCL(64) is near a breakout at 65 and can target 73-76 in short term.

Bharti Shipyard(369) It looks like a breakout on charts and it can return 10-12% in weeks to come.


Catch them falling:-

ITC(177) The stock hasn’t performed at all in the recent rally. But it can give good returns from these levels. Buy for investment as well as short term.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Monday, January 01, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 2 JANUARY, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 3972 High 3992 Low 3960 Close 3966

Supp 3955/3942/3928 Res 3975/3985/4005

SENSEX: - Open 13873 High 13929 Low 13770 Close 13787

Supp 13730/13670/13570 Res 13830/13890/13980

What happened on Friday:-

Markets opened up but could not hold on to gains and kept moving in Green and Red. Finally we closed down 59 points on the sensex. There were some major gainers like VSNL, ABB. They both witnessed very good buying yesterday. SAIL, M&M and Jet Airways some other smart gainers. Guj Amb Cem, Hind Lever, MTNL were the top losers on the Nifty.

What shall we witness on Tuesday:-

Last week we saw both Sensex and Nifty regaining strength. We closed 315 points up on the sensex on weekly basis. A fall until 3900-3880 should be healthy. We can again look up after chasing those levels. But we should look at stocks more than the index as the action looks concentrated into stocks. This Tuesday is the first trading of calendar year 2007. Oct-Jan Quarter results will be out this month. So it is going to be an action-packed month. Auto numbers should be out in a day or two. So those stocks will be in action. Call rates hit 19% last week. That means Banks are scrambling for cash. This can be a bad news for the banking sector and they may correct on this news.

Where’s the money:-

BPCL (337) The stock should be bought around 328-332 and it can target above 350 levels in short term.

Gesco Corp(878) Very short term traders can think of buying this stock. It can target 930-940 levels. The returns should be in the region of 6-7% in very short term. But keeping own Stop loss is recommended. Support level is at 840-850.

Catch them Falling:-

Tata Motors(900) has given a breakout last week and it should target near 1000 levels very soon.

Punj Lloyd(1032) The stock looks nice on charts. It should accumulated. The target can be around 1200-1250 which converts to 15-20% returns from these levels also.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

DAILY REPORT FOR 14 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3717 High 3778 Low 3658 Close 3765

Supp 3810/3850/3905 Res 3730/3690/3650

SENSEX: - Open 13011 High 13223 Low 12830 Close 13181

Supp 13070/12930/12800 Res 13275/13330/13470

What happened on Wednesday:-

Market was very volatile yesterday as both bulls and bears tried to prove their existence. But it was bulls who won in later trading hours and we managed to close 185 points up on the sensex after 3 very bad down days.

Nifty Gainers:- RCom, Zee tele, Siemens

Losers :- GAIL, SAIL, Hind Lever, ONGC

What shall we witness on Thursday:-

It was good to see a bounce back yesterday. It should continue today as well. But what is more important is that we should spend some time at these levels and regain lost strength. Banking was the beaten-down sector in the recent fall. They participated in the rally yesterday. Now Auto and Metals should contribute so that we will know that buying is coming back to those sectors as well. As the sell-off was very sharp, supply at higher levels is always a possibility.


Catch them falling:-

SAIL(81) has good support at 78-79 levels and if it is able to sustain above these levels, we may see above 90-95 levels soon.

Wipro(555) has corrected well from peak of 605 and can target 590-600 levels again.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

DAILY REPORT FOR 13 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3849 High 3861 Low 3662 Close 3717

P/E 19.91 P/B 4.75 Adv 2 Dec 48 Vol Rs 11085.28 Cr

EMA20 3904 EMA50 3795 EMA100 3630

Supp 3690/3650/3490 Res 3750/3795/3830

SENSEX: - Open 13414 High 13492 Low 12802 Close 12995

EMA20 13564 EMA50 13153 EMA100 12529

Supp 12900/12715/12560 Res 13100/13230/13490

What happened on Tuesday:-

We opened flat and remained sideways up to mid-hours. But huge selling brought the markets to below 13000 levels. We touched 12802 and closed just below 13000. Provisional Figure for FIIs for yesterday was also net buy of Rs 258 Cr. There were just 2 nominal gainers on the Nifty like Dabur and GAIL. Fall was massive in Orient Bank, ABB, Grasim.

What shall we witness on Wednesday:-

We have lost around 1200 points in last 3 days and if we go by Institutional figures, we can clearly see that major selling was done by Mutual Funds. They sold around Rs 602 Cr on 11-Dec-2006. Now for today we should see some sharp bounce. And this bounce can even be sharper than the fall but after that also we may spend some time here and then start new moves up. We look forward to Advance Tax figures, Budget from here. Also we will be getting 3rd Quarter results in January. So things are getting extremely interesting now.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Stock market requires commitment both in terms of money and mind.


DAILY REPORT FOR 12 DECEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3962 High 3965 Low 3798 Close 3850

Supp 3795/3770/3735 Res 3873/3925/3946


SENSEX: - Open 13783 High 13802 Low 13262 Close 13399

Supp 13200-170/12950/12670 Res 13490/13580/13720


What happened on Monday:-

We opened a bit down and went to lows around 1 pm yesterday. There were no gainers on Nifty. All 50 stocks were down yesterday. It was a Manic Monday Mayhem. But the notable thing is that FIIs didn’t sell much yesterday. RBI’s move of raising CRR was reacted in an exaggerated way. Banks did most of the damage as they were torn apart by market players and we saw a 7% fall on Bank Nifty. PNB, SBI,ICICI each lost 7%. Other losers were Zee, Tisco. They too lost 6% each.


What shall we witness on Tuesday:-

When we got the provisional figure, it was Rs 334 Cr net buys. And if we are to go by that figure, we have to believe that yesterday’s selling pressure was peculiarly from the weak players in the market. They buy in Futures and Options or they buy on margin funding. Such people will never make money in this market. Stock market requires commitment both in terms of money and mind. We have to understand that we have to buy in cash and then play this game. Derivatives and Margin funding are played on leverage and borrowed money. And that is never a way to earn money in this market. If anybody wants to earn some serious and consistent money, one has to buy in cash and not through any kind of leverage. In the long run, cash-buyers are only going to survive and not any leveraged players.

Now in this fall, we still held 3795 which was the previous swing point of Nifty and on Sensex also 13200 is a major support which has not been broken. The bullish outlook gets confirmed by looking at these factors. So we can still buy good stocks.

If we suppose CRR raise as a bad news, we cannot ignore good news such as Infosys getting added to NASDAQ100 and Indo-US Nuke deal going through. Sometimes good news gets neglected because of overwhelming response to some bad news but market has a habit of discounting each and every news and good news will be discounted when we do bottom out.

Bottom fishers can look at ONGC, Hero Honda, Reliance for sharp reversals.

Catch them falling :-

TISCO has come down around 17% from recent top around 548 levels and we can invest in it. There has been lot of hoo-hah about the Corus deal and we may see stability in the stock as and when this matter gets over. We should get returns in excess of 15% in this counter.


Dr Reddys Labs is one stock where we should invest and this stock has a lot of potential to reach 850-900 levels.

L&T has got many big orders in the recent past and the stock can be bought for investment purposes. The stock can target 1600-1650 levels soon.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.