Nifty has closed in the negative by 40 points at 6103 this week and this is first negative closing after consecutive rally for 5 weeks. RELIANCE ADAG stocks were gainers this week – RCOM was top Nifty mover with 7.5% gains while RELCAP was up nearly 6%. JPASSO, SUZLON, DR REDDY, HINDALCO rose more than 5% each. FMCG stocks were major losers with HIND UNILEVER falling 4.4% and ITC down 3.4%. TATA STEEL was top loser with 6% loss this week. Both HDFC and HDFC BANK faced selling pressure as they fell more than 3.5% each.
Next week we would have IIP Data for August on 12 Oct and Infosys results on 15 Oct which would be watched closely. India's annual industrial output growth probably slowed down to 9.65 per cent in August from the previous month, the median forecast of 20 economists showed.
Good monsoon & 10 years high storage of water can boost Fertilizer sector - DEEPAKFERT, CHAMBAL, NFL, RCF, NAGARFERT are a few stocks which look good. Crude is trading above $81 which can be negative for PSU oil companies HPCL, BPCL, IOC oil marketing companies and OIL, ONGC, GAIL companies which share subsidy burden would be negative.
Weekly Technical View:
Nifty has closed in the negative this week but normally after such a long rally a correction is welcome. Nifty has formed double top at 6223 levels and as long as that is not broken strong rally would be hard to come while RELIANCE has started performing and it holds an important position now as far as market trend is concerned. RELIANCE maintaining Rs 1020 would remain positive and keep markets stable while any negative surprise in INFOSYS results can weaken the established trend. Nifty as long as stays above 5950 levels the trend doesn’t deteriorate and 6357 is all time high which has to be cleared soon for taking this bull market into new orbit.
Support 6065/6000/5940 Resistance 6169/6235/6350
Sensex has closed the week lower by 195 points at 20250 and as long as it maintains 19800 levels the trend would be positive. But markets have become very fast and such high gains are very difficult to hold so a correction would be healthy. 20700 has proved to be strong resistance for the Sensex and above that 21206 all time high levels can be crossed.
Support 20100/19780/19670 Resistance 20480/20700/21000
Technical Call: BEL (Rs 1872):- The stock has outperformed this week rising nearly 6% against overall weak market. BEL is trading above short as well as long term moving averages and sustaining Rs 1840 levels trend can get stronger. Buy Rs 1865-1870 for target Rs 1940-1950, keep stops below Rs 1830.