Thursday, July 23, 2009


RBI Operationalizes Indian Depository Receipts Rules


(Dow Jones)--India's central bank Wednesday put into operation rules allowing foreign companies to issue depository receipts in the country - a move which, though positive in the long run, analysts said may pressure domestic markets in the near term. Eligible companies resident outside India may issue Indian Depository Receipts through a domestic depository subject to companies rules and guidelines, the Reserve Bank of India said. Issue of IDRs enables foreign companies to raise funds by listing on Indian stock exchanges.
"At a time when we're struggling for capital and liquidity to sustain domestic growth, the flight of money to overseas markets may not help," said J.Moses Harding, head of global markets at IndusInd Bank. Harding said the move could pressure the Indian rupee in the near-term as the demand for dollars would go up. However, when the global economy recovers and investors regain confidence about putting their money in India, this channel could help the growth of the financial market, he said. "These are small, cautious steps toward capital convertibility. Greater foreign participation in Indian markets is definitely going to help us integrate better in the long run," said an economist with a local bank, who did not wish to be named. Standard Chartered PLC is one of the companies looking to raise at least $1 billion by listing in India, a person familiar with the matter told Dow Jones Newswires in April.
The RBI said a financial or a banking company with a presence in India which wants to issue IDRs it will need regulatory approval. Indian shares have been one of the better performers in the region in 2009, with the benchmark Sensex index gaining more than 53% so far this year. According to data from capital markets regulator, foreign institutional investors have been net buyers of over $6 billion of Indian shares. But a lack of confidence in foreign companies amid jittery global sentiment and uncertain economic environment could weigh on investor appetite for shares of these companies in India, analysts said. The RBI said the depository receipts will be rupee-denominated. Foreign institutional investors and non-resident Indians may purchase them, subject to the guidelines on foreign exchange management. The IDRs can't be redeemed into underlying equity shares within one year from the date of issue, it said. The proceeds of the issue must be immediately repatriated outside the country by the issuing company.
Regulator caps Ulip charges

Retail investors to benefit as returns will increase; move effective from October 1

Unit-linked insurance plans (Ulips) are set to become more attractive for retail investors as the regulator today capped the charges levied by insurance companies on such investments. The cap, which comes into effect from October 1, will increase returns from Ulip investments.

The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Irda) has capped the difference between gross and net yield to customers at 3 per cent for 10-year policies and at 2.25 per cent for policies of more than 10 years. At present, the charges vary between 1.8 per cent and 4 per cent depending on the tenure of the investment.

Irda has capped fund management charges at 150 basis points for policies with a period of less than 10 years and 125 basis points for above 10 years.

According to the circular, at the time of sale, the insurer may assume a growth rate of 10 per cent per annum of the investment as a model. This would help customers understand products and charges easily.
“In order to enable customers to have a clear understanding of the product, it is decided that Irda will prescribe one cap on all charges put together. This will ensure flexibility for insurers and encourage product innovation,” Irda said.

Irda said the extra premium from underwriting extraordinary health conditions, cost of all rider benefits, service tax on charges (as applicable) and any explicit cost of investment guarantee would be excluded in the calculation of the net yield.

The regulator said insurers could withdraw all existing policies that did not meet the requirement by December 31, 2009, while all policies filed after October 1, 2009, would be governed by this circular.Bharti Axa Life Insurance CEO Nitin Chopra said the cap on Ulip charges at 2.25 per cent for a gross yield of 10 per cent over the long term would make Ulips more competitive and customer-friendly. Chopra, however, said it would help if mortality charges were removed from the overall ambit of charges as these charges were dependent on individual customer profiles and the amount of cover required. At the time of maturity, the regulatory authority said, the insurer must issue the policyholder a certificate showing year-wise contributions, charges deducted, fund value and final payment made to the policyholder taking into account partial withdrawals, if any. This certificate must also show the actual gross yield and net yield taking into account the actual charges deducted.

Insurers are skeptical about including mortality charges under the overall charges saying it may adversely impact sales, especially to aged customers.

Over 90 per cent policies private insurers sell are Ulips while state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) has collected 85 per cent of the premium from equity linked investment products.
“This will make ULIPs even more transparent and favourable for customers. With a cap on overall charges, customers stand to benefit in the form of higher returns. Moreover, lower charges on products with terms greater than 10 years will provide impetus to long-term policies.” said Aviva India CEO and MD T R Ramachandran.
(Source: Business Standard)

Insurance is not a good investment option - feels N. Muthuraman
Choosing life insurance products such as ULIPs as an investment option may not be a wise thing to do, as complex fee structures may eat into your returns. Insurance products should be chosen only for risk cover; all other features of insurance products are available in mutual funds at a much cheaper cost.

Just sample this set of charges a typical unit-linked insurance policy may levy on you — premium allocation charge, policy administration charge, mortality charge, fund management charge, top-up charge, switching charge, partial withdrawal charge and surrender charge. All these charges could eat into your investment returns substantially, which makes the case for insurance policies as an investment option weak. Add to this the problem of mis-selling by insurance agents.

Avoid policies? Does that mean you should avoid all life insurance policies? No! They serve two basic purposes:
First, the risk of death of the insured and resultant loss of income for the dependents; this risk can be covered with an appropriate ‘term insurance’ plan; and Second, the risk of the insured living longer and, hence, a need for pension for self and family. This can be covered with an appropriate pension plan. Insurance policies should be chosen to address these two basic risks. Beyond these, the policies serve very limited purpose.

The investment part of any insurance product can be adequately addressed by mutual funds, which are much less expensive and also rank much higher in disclosure levels — be it the charges they levy, the periodic disclosure of the portfolio of their investments or the ease of access of net asset values (NAVs). Besides, comparison of charges, past performance and asset composition are much easier in the case of mutual funds than unit-linked policies offered by insurance companies. Conventional insurance products — non-ULIP products — are even worse than ULIPs in disclosure levels, making them much more complex to understand. The insurance regulator can do much more to improve disclosure standards of both conventional and ULIP products, which is beneficial in the long term both for the industry and the investors.

What are these charges?
The typical charges a life insurance policy may entail, and the broad range for each of these charges are given below; a few policies and promotional schemes could fall outside this range.
Premium allocation charge: This is the charge levied by the insurance company to cover its expenses — agent commission, marketing and selling expenses, etc.This is usually the largest charge levied on the insured and can range from 5 per cent up to even 60 per cent of the first year premium, and typically about 5 per cent of the annual premium thereafter. Compare this with the 2.5 per cent entry load typically levied by the mutual funds, and you get the drift.
Policy administration charge: This is the charge levied for the administration of the plan — printing and stationery, postage, maintaining customer call centres, etc., are covered by this charge. Usually this is a small fee — about Rs 20 — levied every month. But beware of some policies which levy policy administration charge as a per cent of sum assured, while charging an apparently low premium allocation charge. A pure marketing innovation to make the policy charges appear low, when in reality they are not.
Mortality charge: This is the charge that is levied to cover the risk of early mortality of the insured, the very purpose why an insurance policy is taken. Ironically, this cost is among the smallest charges levied — typically ranges from 0.2 per cent to 0.5 per cent of the sum assured per annum, depending on your age. Some policies offer a fixed per cent throughout the life of a policy, while others offer a variable per cent, increasing every year till the life of the policy. The variable rates, while starting low, could grow to very high levels, as one reaches advanced ages.
Fund management charge: This is the charge levied for managing your funds by investing in equity markets, debt markets, government securities, etc., as per your choice of funds. Typically, this charge could be 1-2.5 per cent of the funds managed. Insurance companies claim that their fund management charges are lower than those levied by mutual funds. But in the absence of appropriate disclosures, and lack of uniformity even within the same insurance company across products, such claims can neither be confirmed nor denied.

Other charges, such as for top-up, switchin, partial withdrawal and surrender, are levied only when the insured opt for any of these modifications to the original contract. Some of these charges are punitive to ensure continuity of the policy and to deter frequent change requests.
Take, for instance, top-up charge. This provides some avenue for savings. Many policies have high premium allocation charges, but low top-up charge. An investor could choose a low initial premium, and opt for top-up to minimise the expense.

But then, why choose insurance policy as an investment, and then try to optimise your costs, when mutual funds offer much better flexibility on all these fronts?

The mis-selling menace
Having interacted with almost all major insurance companies and a host of agents across the spectrum, I have come across several mis-selling techniques adopted by agents to lure unsuspecting investors. Here are some: 
Selective disclosure of past performance: In the absence of appropriate disclosures and rigorous comparisons of past performance by independent agencies (such as mutual fund awards for the mutual fund industry), comparison of past fund performance becomes a challenge in the insurance industry. This leaves large scope for the insurance agents to selectively quote periods when their fund performance was superior to an index performance and, thereby, hoodwink the investor.
Indicating much higher returns than permitted by regulator: The insurance regulations permit benefit illustrations with returns only between 6 per cent and 10 per cent per annum. However, many agents provide illustrations with much higher returns with impunity — some even as high as 30-40 per cent returns in equity schemes citing performance in 2006 and 2007. Even a small 2 per cent variation in annual return can show widely divergent terminal benefits when compounded over long period of time, luring gullible investors into believing they will be crorepatis in just a matter of time.
Promoting the policies that earn them highest commission: With scant regard for the needs of the insured, some agents promote only policies that can earn them the highest commission. Premium allocation charges are substantially lower in single-premium products (as per regulation) and, hence, commission earned by agents are the lowest in this class of policies.
Suggesting deliberate discontinuity in premium payments: Few unscrupulous agents even suggest discontinuing existing policies and opting for new ones, because that earns them much higher commissions. In fact, one large insurance company had policy forfeitures of up to 30 per cent of new policies in their second year, prompting an investigation and reprimand by the regulator.
Promising kickbacks: The oldest trick in the book, many agents still promise to pay the insured some portion of their commission earned, despite stringent regulations prohibiting this practice. While this will apparently reduce the ‘charges’ borne by the investor, little do they realise it is their own money coming back to them illegally, subverting the good intentions of the regulator.

What can be done?
The regulator can ensure standardisation of some of the charges — for surrender, policy administration, switching, etc., and disclose ceiling on other charges — fund management charges, policy allocation charges, etc. 
The regulator can also engage in more proactive regulation — dialogue with insurers on specific regulatory provisions will yield better results, than making the regulation more and more complex to address every possible mis-selling situation. 
The insurance industry can promote a self-regulatory organisation (SRO) that compiles and discloses NAV and periodic portfolio (like AMFI does for the mutual fund industry). 
Insurance companies can promote ‘risk cover’ as their key offering, and give more thrust for term assurance policies (where none of these charges are pertinent as the entire premium belongs to the insurance company).
Insurance companies can also modify their incentive schemes for agents to maximum the ‘sum assured’ — which is the main purpose of an insurance product, rather than maximising the charges earned by the insurance company. In fact, even shifting to ‘employee’ model rather than ‘sales agent’ model and reducing variable pay could help insurance industry in the long run!

Insurance company angle
The accusations that are being made are not new to the insurance companies. And they do put up a stiff argument to defend these. Some common lines of defence are:
Higher charges in insurance (when compared to mutual funds) are because insurance is a complex product and takes effort in selling. Despite these charges, long-term investors may benefit more from insurance policies than mutual funds because fund management charges in insurance products are lower than mutual fund products. Insurance policies discourage easy redemptions and help investors stay invested for long term in a disciplined manner. Mis-selling is beyond their control in a situation of rapidly expanding base of agents.

While there is merit in some of these arguments, insurance companies, regulators and the intermediaries can do much more for the long-term health of the insurance industry.

(The author is Co-founder of RiverBridge Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd.) (Source: Business Line)

Tuesday, July 21, 2009



Clustering Of Important Events Indicates Caution Ahead - Tanmay G Purohit

A Bit Of History To Start With:-
Sensex hit its fearsome lows at 7697 and many could not foresee the bull run ahead as markets abounded in predictions about 5000-Sensex which never happened. Since that time only we have been bullish about India and trying to make people aware of the importance of that opportunity through various majors. An upper circuit was predicted right to start with (http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/2008/10/now-probability-of-upper-circuit-is-big.html) which happened after 7 months after elections, then we reflected on how SEBI and other regulators were trying to improve the sentiment (http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/2008/11/i-have-not-committed-crime.html), the risk-reward was perfect at 9000 sensex also (http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/2008/11/why-to-fear-even-if-sensex-does-6000.html), then came Satyam Episode but India still remained investment favourite 

Now Into The Present:-
Sensex hit 8047 which is current rally bottom on 6Mar2009 and rallied nearly 93% to reach 15600 on 12Jun2009. The P/E of Nifty has expanded from below 12 in October'08 to above 20 now and a lot of pessimism has ran away as euphoric phase took over after UPA won the elections. Almost all the sectors have contributed to this rally and many stocks have more than quadrupled also. Some caution is advised at this point as valuations look stretched, markets can run up even with stretched valuations but now the risk-reward is not favourable after indices have nearly doubled themselves. Long term investors need not worry (2-3 years and above) but short-term traders/investors may feel pain if they don't take informed decision at this point of time.
  • Sensex/Nifty will complete 89 days of rally on Tuesday, 21Jul2009, 21 weeks of up trend will be complete this week - Both are important fibonacci numbers in technical parlance. 
  • Sensex has created 9 up gaps during its journey in the last 5 months of rally, also on weekly graph we are having 3 up gaps open. It is not necessary that we close these gaps always, but closing these gaps can give us a comfortable entry point which is needed for future safety of returns. If Sensex tries to feel even 2 gaps from the 9 open, we may see 13460 levels. If 2 of the 3 weekly gaps are to be closed, we may see even 12250.
  • 61.8% retracement of Sensex fall from 21206 to 7697 will complete at 16045 which can be a place where good supply can be seen.
  • RELIANCE results will be out on 24Jul2009 and 80% of the results will be announced over next 8-10 days which can guide further direction to the market. Any disappointment in any of the major results can be a cause of worry as high expectations are built in.
  • Biggest Solar Eclipse of the century and it is one of 3 eclipses in a single month. Now I am not an astrologer to talk about this, but this is one event which needs a close watch as effects can be a bit late also.
All these events cluster together and such rare events encompassing a single week can give way to major turns, it may not be visible immediately and it is difficult to comprehend effects at this point of time but it is better to stay away or stay light as we have taken good profits since markets bottomed out in Oct'08. Technically, Sensex sustaining above 15000 levels can take it to above 16000 and more also very quickly, but it is the risk-reward which is not favourable at this juncture. PCR (Put-Call Ratio) is rising rapidly since last week as there is heavy built-up of shorts and government announcements after budgets regarding various reforms have infused fresh money into stocks. Shorting is not advisable, this is only a caution to investors. The bearish Head & Shoulders formation in Nifty has also failed so more short covering is not ruled out. There is a good chance that we may be wrong as the fall may not materialize soon and we may just become onlookers for higher levels, but if we are right, the correction from current levels can be big which can be 25% or even worse also on index.

Deja Vu 21000 - Similar caution was advised around 20000-Sensex levels in Dec'07 but we did see a rally of 1000 more points from there also. We can never sell at exact top, it is not necessary to wait until last point of rally as when one really wants to sell the market may not oblige. So take profits now, reduce positions and better to watch the events by avoiding over-aggression. In technical analysis, we always talk about probabilities and never certainties but if there is a high probability of turning around, one should have it in mind before investing. If we go up from here and rally doesn't stop, we can again catch it as we will be having cash in hand to do that, we can always take a fresh view later.


Gaps so far:-





About the big Eclipse:-
The world will witness the longest total solar eclipse of the 21st Century on Wednesday, 22Jul2009 as it will lay a carpet of darkness across India and China, from Mumbai to Shanghai. At its maximum, this will last 6 minutes and 39 seconds. Earlier, similar solar eclipse occurred on July 11, 1991 which lasted 6 minutes and 51 seconds. This solar eclipse is the longest total solar eclipse that will occur in the twenty-first century, and will not be surpassed in duration until June 13, 2132. This is second in the series of three eclipses in a month. There was a lunar eclipse on July 7 and now a solar eclipse on July 22 and then a lunar eclipse on August 6.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Update on EXIDE INDS (CMP Rs 78.45):-
EXIDE is approaching our target of Rs 85-90 This is an update as EXIDE came out with a good results in Q1:-

  • PAT growth of 48.90% to Rs 1224mn from Rs 822mn
  • Income fell marginally to Rs 9043.50mn from Rs 9088.80mn



Further Outlook for EXIDE:-
The demand for batteries in industrial segment is still strong (UPS, Invertors, Telecom etc). Auto battery space is a bit challenging but with improved sales by Indian auto companies and EXIDE being a popular and preferred name; long-term demand will keep coming to it. The distribution network and increasing backward integration (it did acquire Tandon Metals and Leadage Alloys for its lead needs) will help EXIDE sustain tough times as well. As the stock is approaching our given targets, partial profit-taking is advisable here, rest one can hold for even triple-digit targets in a year's time frame.


EXIDE results press release:- http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/news.asp?newsid={FD85246E-6614-4343-859A-BB22C80306BE}&param1=1
Previous Posting on EXIDE http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/2009/06/exide-industries-cmp-rs-63.html
UPDATE ON KALINDEE RAIL NIRMAN (CMP Rs 152):-
Previous article:- http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/2009/05/kalindee-rail-nirman-cmp-rs-150-buy.html
The stock did reach our target in budget euphoria but now excessive speculation and disappointment has crashed it towards Rs 140 once again. It becomes a value buy once again with a strong catalyst in the form of L&T. Once again the stock can reach near Rs 190-200 levels in 3-4 months period and one can buy for investment around Rs 150-155. The stock hit 9 down freeze after the budget and now has started trading freely last 3 sessions.


Larsen & Toubro holds 14% stake in this company and with management of L&T saying they are going to increase investment in Railway sector, this company may get some attention.


Excerpt from Interview of Y M Deosthalee, CFO, L&T talking to CNBC:-
Q: Just to supplement it, would you be looking at buying Kalindee? L&T Capital already has I think 14%?
A: Yes, we have some stake, about 14%. There are various options. Acquisition is not the only option, one can have strategic alliance. One can look at working together. So, there are all options and we will examine. At this point in time, we have not finalized our thinking on whether we are going to acquire or takeover. I don’t think anybody can make such statements. Read full interview:- http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/results-boardroom/beefingcapabilitiespower-railways-lt-/406717/0