Monday, August 20, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 20 AUGUST, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 4171 High 4171 Low 4002 Close 4108 (-70 pts)

P/E 18.58 P/B 4.83 Adv 10 Dec 40

Supp 4088/4055/4000 Res 4175/4240/4268

SENSEX: - Open 14309 High 14319 Low 13779 Close 14141 (-216 pts)

Supp 14070/13980/13770 Res 14460/14600/14710

Good recovery from lows:-

· Sensex goes below 14000 but closes above it. Nifty takes support at psychological level of 4000 and closes at 4108, down 70 points.

· FIIs continue to sell in Indian equity markets as they sold Rs 3535 Cr in cash market. Domestic Institutions remained buyers to the tune of Rs 1944 Cr. FIIs were sellers in the Derivatives market too as they sold Rs 1270 Cr in F&O.

· Metals stay in downtrend as Sterlite Inds and Tata Steel were major losers.

· Stocks like Sun Pharma, Siemens bounced from major support levels. Some stocks saw huge buying. Nagarjuna Fert was up 18%, Indus Ind bank and Chambal Fert were up more than 6% each.

· Volumes were monumental at Rs 15287 Cr in spot market. F&O Vol Rs 64879 Cr

· Breadth was negative- NSE Adv 224 Dec 886 Unch 20 BSE Adv 854 Dec 1847 Unch 31

Top Gainers: - Sun Pharma, Siemens, Wipro, IPCL, Dabur

Top Losers: - Sterlite Inds, Hind Petro, Satyam Comp, Tata Steel, GAIL

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Monday:-

· US Markets see massive rally on account of rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Indian ADRs see huge buying as ICICI Bank gains 12%, HDFC Bank and VSNL each up around 8%

· Asian markets trading in big gains

· Markets to open big gap-up on positive global cues but rally looks short-lived at this juncture.

· The political uncertainty between Congress and the Left can make market-players nervous about the economic prospects of this country.

· Cement stocks should perform well in this pullback rally. India Cement shows good upside.

· The bounce-back should take us towards 4320-4350 where resistance can come

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Friday, August 17, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 17 AUGUST, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 4366 High 4366 Low 4171 Close 4178 (-192 pts)

P/E 18.90 P/B 4.92 Adv 2 Dec 48

Supp 4100/4070/4000 Res 4250/4280/4310

SENSEX: - Open 14585 High 14585 Low 14345 Close 14358 (-642 pts)

Supp 14320/14200/14020 Res 14430/14510/14670

Finally the storm:-

  • Sensex crashed and lost 642 points on Thursday
  • FIIs fling Indian equities as they sold Rs 3108 Cr in cash market. Domestic Institutions remained buyers to the tune of Rs 1398 Cr. FIIs were sellers in the Derivatives market too as they sold Rs 3348 Cr in F&O.
  • Metals lost the most as Tata steel and Sterlite were biggest losers. Just 2 stocks could keep their heads up on the Nifty.
  • Some stocks like Bongaigaon Ref, Ispat Industries showed strength and stayed up.
  • Volumes were large at Rs 11791 Cr in spot market. F&O Vol Rs 46447 Cr
  • Breadth was quite negative- NSE Adv 138 Dec 983 Unch 13 BSE Adv 808 Dec 1894 Unch 39

Top Gainers: - GAIL, NALCO

Top Losers: - Tata Steel, VSNL, Sterlite Inds, Suzlon, Bharti Airtel

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Friday:-

  • A dramatic reversal in the Dow as it recovered around 340 points from day-lows on rumours that the Fed may cut interest rates. Indian ADRs were down quite a bit but recovered somewhat in late trade with the rally in Dow Jones
  • Asian markets have opened in the negative
  • Nifty can go below 4000 levels in this fall but has good support at 4070-4100 and as long as this is sustained, hopes of pullback won’t die.
  • The bounce, if happens, will be pretty fast. Cement stocks showed strength yesterday. We have to see if they can lead the bounce-back.
  • Rupee slumped 1.5% as investors cut their exposure to India, Tech stocks should see some buying

U.S. Stocks Climb, Led by Banks; S&P 500 Recovers From Drop

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aLOVR90.hnKA&refer=us


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 16 AUGUST, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 4373 High 4394 Low 4354 Close 4370 (-3 pts)

P/E 19.77 P/B 5.14 Adv 24 Dec 26 Vol Rs 7832 Cr

Supp 4300/4240/4100 Res 4400/4429/4460

SENSEX: - Open 15066 High 15069 Low 14964 Close 15000 (-16 pts)

Supp 14750/14500/14370 Res 15070/15180/15340

Lull before the storm:-

The indices closed marginally lower as investors stayed cautious just before the holiday. Oil stocks rose as BPCL, ONGC and Hind Petro were among top Nifty gainers. Stock-specific movement continued but breadth was flat. Volumes were quite low. NTPC and GIPCL rose as Power stocks were in demand.

Adv 574 Dec 531 Unch 29

Top Gainers: - BPCL, ONGC, HDFC Bank, Hindalco, Hind Petro

Top Losers: - HDFC, ACC, Dabur, Grasim, Tata Power

FII trading activity: - Buy Rs 1464.92 Cr Sell Rs 1796.44 Cr Net Sell Rs 331.52 Cr (Provisional for 14 Aug 2007)

Domestic Institutional activity: - Buy Rs 765.69 Sell Rs 456.75 Net Buy Rs 308.94 Cr

(Provisional for 14 Aug 2007)

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Thursday:-

The sub-prime crisis is looming large on the world and it is taking toll on global markets almost everyday now. India is not insulated from global peers and we will be affected with the fall in US markets. Also Left party statement about mid-term elections will make market players somewhat nervous about the political scenario. Our markets are expected to remain under pressure and test lower levels. The fall can be more than 10% on the indices in near term.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 14 AUGUST, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 4324 High 4384 Low 4324 Close 4373 (+40 pts)

P/E 19.81 P/B 5.14 Adv 44 Dec 6 Vol Rs 8258 Cr

Supp 4360/4328/4295 Res 4400/4429/4460

SENSEX: - Open 14966 High 15044 Low 14869 Close 15017 (+149 pts)

Supp 14970/14860/14750 Res 15070/15180/15340

A small bounce:-

The Sensex closed above 15000 once again as it bounced back on the back of positive Asian markets. Buying was seen largely in Cement, Auto and FMCG stocks. Volumes were low as large participation was absent. Breadth was quite positive.

Adv 793 Dec 311 Unch 24

Top Gainers: - Tata Power, Hind Uniliver, Cipla, Tata Motors, Maruti

Top Losers: - TCS, Glaxo, Satyam Comp, Infosys, HCL Tech

FII trading activity: - Buy Rs 1593.84 Cr Sell Rs 2153.42 Cr Net Sell Rs 559.58 Cr (Provisional for 13 Aug 2007)

Domestic Institutional activity: - Buy Rs 720.81 Sell Rs 583.05 Net Buy Rs 137.76 Cr

(Provisional for 13 Aug 2007)

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Tuesday:-

14970 (Sensex) and 4360 (Nifty) are good support levels for intraday trading. Below that some correction is expected. The outlook is not very positive but stock-specific movement may continue. Some sectors like Pharma have not yet performed in this rally. Dr Reddy, Aurobindo Pharma, Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy can see some buying. ICICI Bank and SBI look weak on charts. Those can pressurize the indices. But ONGC can give some support.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Thursday, May 03, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 3 MAY, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 4082 High 4097 Low 4029 Close 4088 (+4 pts)

P/E 19.48 P/B 5.33 Adv 32 Dec 18 Vol Rs 7571 Cr

EMA20 3994 EMA50 3926 EMA100 3879

Supp 4065/4040/4010 Res 4131/4155/4198

SENSEX: - Open 13823 High 13901 Low 13694 Close 13872 (-36 pts)

EMA20 13636 EMA50 13467 EMA100 13349

Supp 13770/13700/13640 Res 14040/14130/14250

Good recovery from support levels in late trade:-

A subdued opening was followed by sideways trend until 1.30 pm. But buying emerged in heavyweights like RCom, Bharti Airtel and selective bank stocks to take us upward towards closing hours. We closed just 36 points down on the Sensex although at one point in time we were down more than 200 points. Hind Lever and ICICI Bank were top losers on results below expectations and equity dilution worries. Bank stocks had a mixed day, but SBI and PNB recovered smartly from lows. Special buying candidates were Tech stocks. Tech Mahindra spurted 7% and Patni 4%. TCS and Infosys also saw good buying interest. Volumes were expectedly lower ahead of a 2-day holiday. Breadth was good.

Adv 635 Dec 407 Unch 32

Top Gainers: - GAIL, RCom, Hero Honda, TCS, Sterlite Industries

Top Losers: - ICICI Bank, Hind Lever, Cipla, Bharti Airtel, BPCL

FII trading activity: - Buy Rs 1330.45 Cr Sell Rs 1770.96 Cr Net Sell Rs 440.51 Cr (Provisional for 30 April 2007)

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Thursday:-

We have recovered well on Monday and today global cues are also positive. Market is expected to open positively. Buying will be witnessed in Tech, Cement and selective Auto stocks. Maruti April sales figures are impressive. Tata Motors numbers are also good. So 4-wheeler stocks may see some buying whereas 2-wheelers numbers are not so exciting so they may remain subdued.

Nifty has good support around 4065-4055 breaking which would mean some caution. We will see higher levels as long as we remain above this level.

Results today: -

Century, Century Enka, Colgate, HDFC, IFCI, Orchid Chem, Varun Ship

Catch them falling:-

Dr Reddys Labs (708):- Accumulate the stock for investment purpose for a target of 850-870. Short term players can look for a target of 760-770 with SL below 690.

Short term picks:-

India Cement (177):- Buy for target of 195-200 in 15-20 days time period.

Tata Elxi (317):- Buy between 310 and 314 with SL 300. It should target 350-360.

Tata Chem (218):- 210-213 is a very good support level. Buy for target of 232-236.

Trading Pick:-

SBI (1102):- Buy for target of 1127-1132 intraday. One can keep SL at 1089

BHEL targets seven-fold increase in overseas business http://tinyurl.com/28yeh2

Patel Engg to enter power generation http://tinyurl.com/ywfz37

Inflation to come down soon http://tinyurl.com/2t3maa

Why a strong Rupee is not a threat to IT companies http://tinyurl.com/2ryzhr

Bajaj Auto likely to take up de-merger on May 17 http://tinyurl.com/2namu5

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.