Weekly Nifty Update 09 April, 2010 by Tanmay G Purohit
Nifty has closed positive (+71 points) at 5361 positive close 9th week in a row and first time Nifty has closed above 5300 on a weekly closing basis after 15-Feb-08. Nifty is trading very close to its channel resistance around 5450 on weekly graphs and INFOSYS results on 13 April would be watched very closely. Nifty hasn’t been able to cross 5400 so far and a failure to move above this level in next 1-2 sessions would mean a correction on the cards. Already this rally is 9-week old which is the longest stretch in many years now, normally such records are met with reversal of trends but until Nifty doesn’t break important support levels such as 5200 the trend is expected to remain up.
Nifty gainers this week included RELINFRA, DLF, IDFC and BHEL which rose more than 6% each while SAIL was top loser with 7% loss after Government announced disinvestment in the company worth Rs 16000Cr. HIND UNILEVER tried to suppress index gains along with HCL TECH and HINDALCO as they fell nearly 3% each. FII flows remain key to market trend as they have been buyers for 25 continuous sessions after budget.
India's power output grew an annual 6.6% in the last financial year, the highest in three years, despite coal shortages and less hydroelectric generation, the Central Electricity Authority said in a report. India has 10 percent of the world's coal reserves, the biggest after the United States, Russia and China, but imports have grown rapidly from almost zero five years ago to an estimated 70 million tonnes in the last fiscal. Due to bad monsoons hydroelectric generation were 8.8 billion kilowatt hours less than the target in the last fiscal, while less supply of domestic coal and delay in imports led to a loss of 14.2 billion kilowatt hours. Gas based generation grew 32.56% in April 2009-March 2010 due to higher availability of gas from the Reliance Industries operated gas fields, off India's east coast. Thermal electricity, which accounts for about two-thirds of Indian power generation and includes using coal, gas and liquid fuel, grew about 8.5 percent in 2009/10.
Realty stocks have been active this week on the back of Emaar MGF Land Ltd plans to sell shares in an IPO in 90 days but many times this company has tried to do it and failed so far. Second-line Gas & Refinery stocks are showing very good momentum and GSPL, MRPL, IGL, GAIL look positive.
Industrial output to rise 16% in February from a year earlier, the median forecast in a poll of 20 economists shows. That is marginally lower than an annual rise of 16.7% in January. Figures are expected on 12 April, Monday. However, a substantially stronger-than-expected data will fuel expectations for a 50-basis-point hike in policy rates when the central bank reviews policy on April 20.
Stocks looking good: MICROTECH, ABG SHIP, IFCI, KALINDEE, GIC HSG FIN
Supp 5280/5185/5112 Res 5432/5478/5550