TANMAY OBSERVES!

UPDATE ON GOLD (CMP $903)

Demand for Gold hampering:- India has not imported ANY Gold in Feb and March 2009. Weak Indian Rupee and rising price of Gold in international market has taken a toll on Indian importers in a double-whammy; it is visible through statistical evidence also. Last year, Indians imported 23 and 21 tonnes respectively in same months. Wedding season has already started and still there is no sign of revival in demand for Gold.
According to WGC (World Gold Council) statistics, demand for the yellow metal in India has slumped by nearly 50% to 102.1 tonnes in the first quarter of calendar 2008, compared to 202.2 tonnes in the corresponding quarter of 2007. Even during the peak season of December 2008-February 2009, consumers had postponed their purchases because of high prices.

Technical Outlook:- Gold was rising nicely in an up-channel which continued from Mid-November'08 till late March'09. The yellow metal did trade above $1000 for some time but now looks like being distributed near that resistance. The up-channel has also broken down and once support at $880-885 gives away, test of $790-800 looks possible.


India Gold imports fall to "Zero" http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=akXBle8f19ek&refer=india
Wedding season demand weak for Gold http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/wedding-season-gold-demand-to-remain-weak/353643/
Previous post on Gold: http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/2009/03/dear-all-gold-is-showing-topping-in.html