Monday, March 09, 2009

Crude Oil Update
Crude Oil touched high of $48.82 on 9-Mar-2009, completing our previous target of $47-49 –returning nearly 30% in less than a month’s time! Previous report: -
Current price is not acceptable to OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), indicated by them time and again, but given recessionary situation, they seem to be taking only small steps so far.

Events to watch –
  • OPEC in its meeting on Sunday, 15 March, 2009 may cut its 2009 demand forecast, which has been a positive trigger for Crude.
  • OPEC is scheduled to release its latest Monthly Oil Market Report on 13 March. Its demand estimate is a key to the OPEC oil ministers’ decision on how much oil to pump.
Price action – Weekly graph shows kind of Rounding Bottom on the Crude and if it is able to cross crucial resistance at $49 to $52, we can even see $56 and $61 as next targets. Some retracement towards $40-42 is definitely possible before a rise.

Stocks that can become active- CAIRN, Reliance, MRPL, Chennai Petro, Bongaigao Refineries are beneficiaries of higher crude prices and if Crude can rally towards $60, these companies can outperform the indices.

OPEC website

Crude May Rally to $55 on ‘Double-Bottom’: Technical Analysis

Oil at $50 Looms as OPEC Plans Cut, Keeps to Quota
OPEC to make sharp cut in oil demand forecast

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