The below given views is of my own (A.K.Prabhakar of ANANDRATHI) it doesn’t reflect companies view. U.S markets has had its impact on global markets from 1980’s so based on that the below given text is prepared.
Global market Special view: Dow has broken 13000 levels and 75week moving average which comes around 12700 is the support in many ways (Low in previous rally) and as per Dow Theory U.S market is entering bear phase. And talk of recession hitting U.S is getting bigger and Fed cutting interest rate also won’t help as inflationary pressure has to be also addressed with Crude around $98.
Already Indian exports are affected by rising Rupee and any slowdown in U.S will impact our Tech & Textile sector which is highest employer in
What impact will this have in our stocks market?
Do we see any slowdown in investment from FIIs?
As per data available in NSE & BSE website funds which has come into secondary markets is negative from November till date and there is no signs yet that new funds from western world would come in. Major correction in U.S market would make global investor withdraw money from emerging markets.
Is Indian markets attractive in short term?
Indian growth story is very strong but any recession globally will affect us also as high crude is benefiting Indian growth in big way as Indian employment, exports and investment come from gulf region in major way (Engineering, construction & raw material). And our stocks markets have fully priced in future growth, but still many attractive pockets remain liquidity is always very important.
What will be long term impact?
World Recession can bring slowdown in
What can derail
Politics and bureaucracy should speed up reform process.
The oil price
Oil is now almost five times more expensive than it was at the beginning of 2002.