Friday, November 30, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 30 NOVEMBER, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 5617 High 5725 Low 5612 Close 5634 (+17 points)

P/E 24.65 P/B 5.91 Adv 22 Dec 28

Supp 5590/5535/5510 Res 5695/5770/5910

SENSEX: - Open 19290 High 19297 Low 18930 Close 19003 (+64 pts)

Supp 18770/18630/18300 Res 19100/19370/19840

F&O Roller coaster:-

· Opening was strong on firm global markets but derivative expiry weighed down on the indices and Sensex closed up by 64 points. RPL was a solid gainer.

· Volumes had to be big - Rs 23732 Cr in spot market and F&O Vol at Rs 98225 Cr.

· Breadth was negative – BSE Adv 1317 Dec 1468 Unch 72 NSE Adv 481 Dec 674 Unch 23

· FIIs sold Rs 1112 Cr in cash market and DIIs bought Rs 606 Cr. FIIs bought total Rs 1977 Cr in stock and index futures.

· Total OI 76357 Cr PCR at 1.44

Top Gainers: - RPL, Hero Honda, VSNL, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank

Top Losers: - Glaxo, Zee Enter, MTNL, Ranbaxy, RCom

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Friday:-

· Today can be an important day for the markets as F&O pressure will not be present and market-players can look at the positions afresh.

· Markets to open firm on good Asian markets. Yesterday was just a consolidation even though we got sold off in late trade. Stock-centered action will be seen as NAV-propping is possible because of month-end.

· We are in a range on the Sensex i.e. between 18800 and 19370. Breakout in any direction will give strong move and decide the trend.

· On the Nifty, break of 5590 support can create room for further selling and we may again test lows below 5400. As long as 5590 is not broken, we should be bullish.

· GDP figures are expected to come out today and reports say that they are going to be somewhat negative. This rally is fully based on liquidity which can dry out when economy numbers are not encouraging.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 29 NOVEMBER, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 5699 High 5749 Low 5595 Close 5617 (-81 points)

P/E 24.57 P/B 5.89 Adv 9 Dec 41

Supp 5590/5535/5470 Res 5660/5695/5770

SENSEX: - Open 19316 High 19316 Low 18884 Close 18938 (-188 pts)

Supp 18880/18630/18300 Res 19050/19160/19350

Metals pressurize:-

· Opening was okay but slowly we moved down as metal stocks corrected. Sensex closed down by 188 points.

· Volumes were not very large - Rs 16187 Cr in spot market and F&O Vol at Rs 86287 Cr.

· Breadth was flattish – BSE Adv 1421 Dec 1573 Unch 84 NSE Adv 475 Dec 630 Unch 36

· Foreign investors sold Indian equity worth Rs 978 Cr and Indian institutional investors bought Rs 331 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Rs 327 Cr in Index Fut and sold Rs 66 Cr in Stock Fut.

· Total OI 110439 (+617 Cr) PCR at 1.03

· Nifty Futures added 6% OI. Prem declined to 17.65 pts (Nov Fut)

· OI Added:- Cummins 82%, CorpBank 21%, Moser Baer 12%, CentralBk 11%, GMR Infra 11%, IVRCL Infra 11%, Colgate 10%

· OI Shed:- BongaiRef 21%, EssarOil 13%, Nicolas Pir 12%, Omaxe 11%, Voltas 10%, JP Hydro 10%

Top Gainers: - Maruti, Bajaj Auto, BHEL, Ambuja Cem, ITC

Top Losers: - Nalco, BPCL, SAIL, Siemens, Tata Steel

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Thursday:-

· US Stocks surged as Fed Vice Chairman talked about another interest rate cut. Dow Jones climbed more than 300 points overnight. Satyam and Wipro were top gainers among Indian ADRs.

· Our markets are expected to open strong on the back of bullish global sentiment. But today is F&O expiry and that will decide the trend of the market.

· Once again we fell from around 5750 and supply kept coming from higher levels yesterday. Fall below 5590 can take us towards 5535 and 5470 intraday. The outlook is still weak with many stocks showing bearish formations. Closing above 5800 is needed for the bulls to confirm their strength.

· Patni Comp (317) looks good and can target around 350 in days to come.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 28 NOVEMBER, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 5729 High 5743 Low 5655 Close 5698 (-33 points)

P/E 24.92 P/B 5.98 Adv 23 Dec 27

Supp 5660/5590/5535 Res 5750/5800/5860

SENSEX: - Open 19128 High 19211 Low 19019 Close 19127 (-119 pts)

Supp 19000/18900/18630 Res 19350/19500/19850

Small dip:-

· Indices consolidated in a small range the whole day. Stock-specific performance continued with refinery stocks gaining. Select Auto stocks too rallied.

· Volumes were average - Rs 16400 Cr in spot market and F&O Vol at Rs 75192 Cr.

· Breadth was flat – BSE Adv 1426 Dec 1571 Unch 81 NSE Adv 479 Dec 636 Unch 26

· Foreign investors sold Indian equity worth Rs 498 Cr and Indian institutional investors bought Rs 298 Cr. In F&O, FIIs sold Rs 541 Cr in Stock and Index Fut.

· Total OI 109822 (+1261 Cr) PCR at 1.01

· Nifty Futures added 7% OI. Prem rose to 32.65 pts (Nov Fut)

· OI Added:- Ashok Leyland 24%, Bongai Ref 34%, Central Bank 16%, Chennai Petro 17%, Corp Bank 11%, Essar Oil 14%, IndiaInfo 34%

· OI Shed:- Ambuja Cem 10%, BEML 10%, Bhushan Steel 38%, GMR Infra 8%, Voltas 10%

Top Gainers: - BPCL, HPCL, BHEL, Bajaj Auto, Ster Ind

Top Losers: - Tata Power, Bharti Airtel, RPL, ICICI Bank, Rel Energy

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Wednesday:-

· Dow Jones rallied more than 200 points after Citigroup received a $7.5 bn cash infusion from Abu Dhabi. VSNL, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank were top Indian ADR gainers.

· For 2 days we have been moving in a very narrow range and with November month expiry just 2 days away, a strong move is expected.

· Nifty has to cross 5800 and sustain above that for bulls to come back. Until that, stock-specific performance should continue. Break of 5590 may create some supply pressure and then more correction is expected.

· For Sensex, as long as 18900 is maintained, we can expect upside which can take us towards 19350 and 19500.

· Aditya Birla Nuvo (1585):- Buy for target of 1680-1700. SL can be kept at 1530.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 27 NOVEMBER, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 5611 High 5772 Low 5608 Close 5731 (+123 points)

P/E 25.07 P/B 6.01 Adv 44 Dec 6

Supp 5700/5620/5590 Res 5800/5860/5970

SENSEX: - Open 19171 High 19360 Low 19137 Close 19247 (+394 pts)

Supp 19140/18900/18630 Res 19470/19600/19900

Once again above 19k:-

· Opening was strong but markets didn’t build more gains after morning. They just consolidated in a range. Stock-specific action continued with Metals outperforming. Finally Sensex could close up by 394 pts.

· Volumes continued to be lackluster - Rs 14541 Cr in spot market and F&O Vol at Rs 75903 Cr.

· Breadth was good – BSE Adv 1936 Dec 1066 Unch 75 NSE Adv 771 Dec 344 Unch 26

· FIIs were small buyers in cash market worth Rs 50 Cr. DIIs too bought stock worth Rs 274 Cr. In F&O, FIIs bought Rs 2098 Cr Index Fut and sold Rs 50 Cr Stock Fut.

· Total OI 108560 (+442 Cr) PCR at 0.98

· Nifty Futures shed 6% OI because of rollover phenomenon. Prem 24.9 (Nov Fut)

· OI Added:- Bhusan Steel 167%, BEML 26%, RPL 25%, Air Deccan 20%, GDL 15%, Amtek Auto 14%, Colgate 11%, Lupin 10%, JP Hydro 9%

· OI Shed:- GMR Infra 10%, Hind Unilever 8%, HCL Tech 8%, Yes Bank 7%, Wipro 7%, TCS 7%, Reliance 7%,

Top Gainers: - Nalco, Unitech, SAIL, HDFC Bank, Suzlon

Top Losers: - RPL, Siemens, BPCL, Tata Motors, SBI

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Tuesday:-

· US stocks fell on concerns that mortgage losses will lead banks to reduce lending. Dow Jones tumbled 237 pts. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank were biggest losers from among Indian ADRs as they lost more than 5% each. Patni Comp was the top gainer with 1% gain.

· We had a nice rally yesterday but the range was very narrow. Sensex moved between just 200 points intraday. Opening was strong but gains did not rise as the day progressed. Volumes were also poor.

· A lower opening is expected today with weak global markets. 18900 on the Sensex is a good support. Also Nifty not going much below 5600 is bullish for the day. Tech stocks can outperform as Rupee is weakening for the last 7 days.

· The overall outlook is still weak with lower volumes in the markets. Break of 5530 on the Nifty in current fall can make room for fresh lows below 5400.

· NIIT Ltd (131.55):- Buy around 128-130 for target of 142/153. SL can be kept at 120.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Monday, November 26, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 26 NOVEMBER, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 5524 High 5638 Low 5514 Close 5608 (+89 points)

P/E 24.53 P/B 5.88 Adv 34 Dec 16

Supp 5580/5515/5475 Res 5690/5760/5800

SENSEX: - Open 18737 High 18910 Low 18548 Close 18852 (+326 pts)

Supp 18750/18550/18400 Res 19080/19300/19470

Bounce back:-

· Indices opened strong and could sustain their gains. Sensex closed up by ….

· Volumes were very dull - Rs 14518 Cr in spot market and F&O Vol at Rs 66744 Cr.

· Breadth was positive – BSE Adv 1862 Dec 1148 Unch 66 NSE Adv 768 Dec 337 Unch 33

· FIIs sold Rs 541 Cr in cash market and DIIs bought Rs 525 Cr. FIIs bought Rs 633 Cr in F&O market.

· Total OI 108118Cr (+3666 Cr) PCR at 0.93

· Nifty Futures OI added 1%. Prem 11.15 (Nov Fut)

· OI Added:- Essar Oil 21%, Neyveli 16%, JP Hydro 15%, CESC 14%, BILT 12%, Central Bank 10%, Grasim 8%

· OI Shed:- Bhusan Steel 11%, Bajaj Auto 9%, Air Deccan 9%, DLF 6%

Top Gainers: - REL, Ster Ind, HCL Tech, NTPC, HDFC

Top Losers: - Hind Petro, Zee Enter, Maruti, HDFC Bank, Nalco

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Monday:-

· Friday bounce-back to continue this morning with strong global markets but supply from higher levels not ruled out. 5700 and 5760 can act as good resistance.

· 5580 is intraday support break of which can lead to some correction. Bulls have to maintain it above 5800 consistently but, for now, that task looks difficult.

· Though market is looking not so strong, stock-specific action is going to carry on as long as bounce-back rally is on. Hind Unilever, Tech Mah, Wipro, GDL look nice.

· GDL (133):- The stock is a buy for investment but for short-term too it is looking good. It can target 170 levels in days to come with in-between resistances at 142 and 149. One can keep SL of 125.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Friday, November 23, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 23 NOVEMBER, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 5564 High 5608 Low 5394 Close 5519 (-42 points)

P/E 24.17 P/B 5.79 Adv 27 Dec 22 Unch 1

Supp 5475/5410/5240 Res 5620/5690/5760

SENSEX: - Open 18724 High 18744 Low 18182 Close 18526 (-76 pts)

Supp 18475/18080/17900 Res 18750/18900/19285

Sharp recovery in late trade:-

· Markets opened flat but lost the ground as Sensex lost more than 400 points around 1 pm. But big recovery was seen in last half an hour and Sensex closed just 76 points lower.

· Volumes were average - Rs 17485 Cr in spot market and F&O Vol at Rs 71149 Cr.

· Breadth was weak – BSE Adv 939 Dec 2066 Unch 68 NSE Adv 255 Dec 861 Unch 21

· Foreign investors sold big time Rs 2487 Cr in spot market. But domestic institutions were quite able to absorb that supply as they bought Rs 1341 Cr. FIIs sold Rs 544 Cr Index Fut and bought Rs 153 Cr Stock Fut.

· Total OI 104493 Cr (-733 Cr) PCR at 0.94

· Nifty Futures OI added 1%. Discount of 20.35 pts turned into premium of 16.85 pts.

Top Gainers: - Hind Petro, SBI, BPCL, PNB, ICICI Bank

Top Losers: - Unitech, Ster Ind, REL, NTPC, Suzlon

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Friday:-

· As we have closed above 5470, some bounce-back is possible. But looking at derivative statistics and selling of FIIs in the last 3-4 sessions, the rally may not live very long.

· For today, 5410 can be regarded as a good support which, if sustained, can give way to a rally. This can take us higher towards 5620 and 5700. On the Sensex we need to close above 19300 to show further power.

· US markets were shut yesterday and we don’t have to deal with those cues today. Stock-specific action will be seen. Siemens may remain active with announcement of good results. Bajaj Auto and ICICI Bank look positive.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 22 NOVEMBER, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 5778 High 5790 Low 5530 Close 5561 (-219 points)

P/E 24.35 P/B 5.83 Adv 2 Dec 48

Supp 5435/5240/5115 Res 5630/5700/5760

SENSEX: - Open 19197 High 19218 Low 18515 Close 18602 (-678 pts)

Supp 18300/18080/17700 Res 18780/19070/19250

Broad-based correction:-

· We started negative from the word go and selling was so intense that we could not come into positive terrain the whole day. Almost every sector was lambasted as Sensex closed down by 678 points. Just 2 shares from Nifty-50 advanced.

· Volumes declined - Rs 18755 Cr in spot market and F&O Vol at Rs 70758 Cr.

· Breadth was very negative – BSE Adv 767 Dec 2262 Unch 38 NSE Adv 147 Dec 972 Unch 16

· FIIs sold quite big Rs 2007 Cr in spot market and Domestic institutions bought Rs 630 Cr. FIIs sold Rs 2267 Cr in index futures. Stock Fut selling was just Rs 32 Cr.

· OI added:- Nicolas Piramal 17%, BankNifty 11%, JPHydro 10%, TataSteel 9%, ONGC 5%, Polaris 5%, Bajaj Auto 7%, M&M 7%, SRF 7%, Wipro 7%

· OI reduced:- AlokText 13%, Neyveli 12%, HCC 12%, Chambal 11%, AIA 11%, Tata Tea 10%, Vijaya Bank 9%, IFCI 9%,

· Total OI 105226 Cr (-3117 Cr) PCR at 0.97

· Nifty Futures OI added 11%. It was in premium of 3.55 points on Tuesday, but went into discount of 20.35 points yesterday signifying continued selling.

Top Gainers: - Hero Honda, Glaxo

Top Losers: - Hind Petro, NTPC, Ster Ind, Nalco, BHEL

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Thursday:-

· More sub-prime concerns took a hit on Dow Jones yesterday night as it fell more than 200 points. All Indian ADRs lost quite a bit of ground, just Patni Comp was flat.

· Gap-down opening is expected today with weak Asian markets. 18300-level has provided good support in the past. Break of 18300 on the Sensex will be negative from the day’s point of view and we may see around 18k levels. 17700-17900 is where good support can be seen. But after that too strength of the bounce has to be seen. Nifty has to cross 5700 to show any kind of strength.

· Big shorts are getting built up and it looks as of now that they will be rolled over. So even if a bounce comes from around 17700 levels, it may be short-lived. Tech stocks can be good to invest when market bottoms out.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

DAILY REPORT FOR 21 NOVEMBER, 2007

NIFTY: - Open 5911 High 5923 Low 5755 Close 5780 (-127 points)

P/E 25.32 P/B 6.06 Adv 7 Dec 43

Supp 5735/5665/5590 Res 5825/5895/5940

SENSEX: - Open 19510 High 19714 Low 19196 Close 19280 (-352 pts)

Supp 19130/18960/18880 Res 19400/19570/19700

Asian market recovery didn’t help:-

· Indices opened lower and recovered too but selling was intense and consistent. Metals, Power, Capital goods and selective IT shares saw selling pressure and Sensex closed down by 352 points.

· Volumes were good - Rs 21061 Cr in spot market and F&O Vol at Rs 73179 Cr.

· Breadth was okay – BSE Adv 1646 Dec 1366 Unch 55 NSE Adv 485 Dec 628 Unch 22

· FIIs sold big Rs 1800 Cr in spot market and Domestic institutions bought Rs 463 Cr. Foreign investors were sellers in derivatives market to Rs 4233 Cr.

· OI added:- Air Deccan +19%, BHEL +24%, Balrampur Chinni +16%, Colgate +21%, Cromp Greav +26%, IFCI +21%, TTML +12%, SRF +17%, Infosys +17%, DLF +20%

· OI reduced:- Arvind Mill -12%, Essar Oil -11%, JP Hydro -15%, Vijaya Bank -10%

· Total OI 108344 Cr (+2212 Cr) PCR at 1.10

· Nifty OI +7% and premium reduced from 17.4 to just 3.55 points indicating build-up of shorts.

Top Gainers: - Tata Motors, SAIL, Ambuja Cem, Hind Unilever, ACC

Top Losers: - Nalco, Hindalco, Ster Ind, MTNL, BHEL

Indian ADRs: - http://tinyurl.com/33m7dx

Outlook for Wednesday:-

· Dow Jones was like a tug-of-war yesterday but finally it could close up by 55 points led by Technology stocks.

· Our markets may open flat on weak Asian markets. Massive selling by FIIs yesterday kept our markets negative despite recovery in other markets.

· Close below 5660 on the Nifty will be quite negative and another phase of correction can start. That can take us towards 5300.

· Bombay Dyeing (686):- Buy for target of 700 in short-term. SL can be kept at 664.

· Nifty shows big short build-up. Correction, if happens now, can be broad-based as small and mid-caps will also fall with the market. One is advised to keep stict stop losses.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.