DAILY REPORT FOR 30 NOVEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3923 High 3952 Low 3920 Close 3928
Supp 3915/3900/3880 Res 3948/3966/3980

SENSEX: - Open 13649 High 13712 Low 586 Close 13617
Supp 13560/13500/13440 Res 13690/13765/13820

What happened Yesterday:-
Markets opened very strong but could not hold on to their gains. Stocks like ACC, SAIL, Sun Pharma, Grasim outperformed the market and rose sharply whereas Hind Petro, Cipla, BPCL lost some ground. Global markets came back strongly yesterday. Dow and Nasdaq fared well and were up almost 1 % each.

What shall we witness on Thursday:-
Today is F&O expiry day for November month contracts. The global cues are extremely positive today. As all the global markets are performing well, our markets are expected to open very strong today. There must be a huge f&o short build-up which will infuse further rally in the markets. When all the world markets are performing, we see some euphoria building up in the markets. And this can happen here also. Up till this time we were looking at a systematic bull market. Now we may see gap-up openings and then again carrying the gains for the whole day and also additions at the end. The old days of crazy rallies may come back where speculators are plenty and investors have to a bit shy. Markets are not still expensive but investors should now calculate their own risks and then take a bet.

Where’s the money:-

ABB(3520):- Buy this stock for short term. The stock should target 3650/3800 from these levels. SL can be kept around 3430 levels.

Alstom Projects(431):- Buy with SL 420 and target 460 and above.

Cipla(249):- Buy with SL 235 for target of 270-275 in short term.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 29 NOVEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3966 High 3966 Low 3912 Close 3922
Supp 3902/3865/3842 Res 3936/3956/3976

SENSEX: - Open 13691 High 13691 Low 13577 Close 13602
Supp 13550/13480/13450 Res 13630/13670/13740


What happened Yesterday:-
Markets opened lower on weak global cues. Markets remained down the whole day. Still there were gains in some index stocks such as Glaxo, Sun Pharma, SBI. The biggest loser on nifty was HCL Tech which was down almost 4%. Other losers were SAIL, Satyam, Reliance Communication. Tech stocks were the biggest losers yesterday. FIIs net sold Rs 439 Cr as per provisional figure yesterday.

What shall we witness on Wednesday:-
We have seen Nifty rallying from 2596 levels in mid-June till now up to 3977. It has been a 1381 point rally on the nifty itself. It corresponds with exactly 5000 points on the Sensex. FIIs have become sellers after many days in cash markets. The Open Interest is also at a high level again after May-2006. And after such a large position in short in F&O market, markets are not able to move up. So investors are advised to take some profits and stay in good cash levels.


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 28 NOVEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3975 High 3975 Low 3949 Close 3969
Supp 3962/3945/3922 Res 3990/4010/4025

SENSEX: - Open 13716 High 13799 Low 13716 Close 13774
Supp 13725/13670/630 Res 13810/13860/13930

What happened Yesterday:-
Markets opened strong as expected and remained that way. Cement stocks like ACC, Gujarat Ambuja Cement gained 3% each. Other gainers were Jet Airways, Bharti Tele, Tata power. Dr Reddy, Zee tele, HPCL were top losers on the Nifty losing 2% each. Midcap stocks have started performing now. Stocks like Nagarjuna construction, Pidilite, ENIL saw good buying yesterday.

What shall we witness on Tuesday:-
The bull run should continue. The targets on nifty for today are 3990/4025.
Nifty All time high is 3976 and it was not able to cross it yesterday. But once we do that, we will see the above targets very quickly. F&O expiry is the major trigger that should help this market reach new highs.

Where’s the money:-

Tata Motors(829):- The stock looks nice on charts. Supp 824/816 Buy for target of 845/853

Dishman Pharma(211):- Buy this stock for short term with SL below 197 and target 229/265.

Bajaj Auto(2656):- Buy around 2630 with SL 2608 and target 2670/2690.

ITC(181):- Buy with SL of 178 for target 184/186


Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 27 NOVEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3945 High 3966 Low 3935 Close 3951
Supp 3932/3920/3900 Res 3968/3990/4020

SENSEX: - Open 13670 High 13768 Low 13665 Close 13703
Supp 13640/600/550 Res 13780/13830/13920

What happened on Friday:-
Markets opened flat but remained up almost the whole day. Markets consolidated in a narrow band. Still there was stock-specific action. Zee, Tata steel, Dr Reddy gained by around 2% each. Siemens was the biggest loser on Nifty. It was down 8% as there was news about some embezzlement of money by top officials. The stock fell like mad on Friday on the bad news. But that case is an old case and Siemens India should not get affected much here.


What shall we witness on Monday:-
Markets have consolidated as expected. Market should open very strong as we have seen good amount of consolidation at these levels. We should see good bit of rally from here. With many people short in the markets, the target on Nifty for this week should be 4050-4100. F&O expiry for November month will give upside to this market. We have to buy on dips. There is good rollover in nifty. Weekend pressure also didn’t correct the market. With many people short, we will see huge rally in the markets. Banking and Auto sector will see good buying this week. With China facing aluminium shortage and metal prices shooting up, metal stocks can zoom up. Those stocks have seen good consolidation on charts. They look very good for the next month’s settlement.

Where’s the money:-

Nagarjuna Construction(191.55):- The stock looks good from short term perspective. Buy around 190 with Stop loss below 180 for the target of 220 and more.

ONGC(857):- Buy around 848-852 for target of 865/874 with SL below 840

Tata Motors(826):- Buy with SL of 817 for target of 832/838.

CIPLA(264):- The stock looks very good on charts. It can be bought for long term keeping targets as 425-450.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 24 NOVEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3955 High 3977 Low 3934 Close 3945
Supp 3925/3905/3885 Res 3965/3975/3998

SENSEX: - Open 13625 High 13740 Low 13625 Close 13707
Supp 13620/13560/13470 Res 13770/13850/13915

What happened yesterday:-
Markets opened on a positive note. But could not sustain much higher levels and came down to close flat. Some volatility was witnessed in ending hours of the trading session. Top gainer on Nifty was Glaxo up 5 %. HDFC Bank and Zee tele were other major gainers. Siemens saw profit-booking as it was down 3%. Satyam Comp and Bharti Tele also lost some ground. It was a breather for the rally as we closed a bit down after 3 consecutive days of strong rally.

What shall we witness on Friday:-
Yesterday’s flat closing was just a breather that a market always needs after a strong rally. It is better that we consolidate at these levels so that we can again gain strength to go forward. For today, 3925 should be good support. Below that we may see correction around 3900. A move past 3965 can take nifty to 3975 and 3998. But we should see some consolidation between 3925 and 3975. Stock-specific action should continue.

Where’s the money:-

Apollo Hospital(464):- Buy with SL 453 for target of 485/505

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 23 NOVEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3918 High 3960 Low 3910 Close 3955
Supp 3939/3925/3890 Res 3968/3988/4025

SENSEX: - Open 13625 High 13740 Low 13625 Close 13707
Supp 13690/13640/13570 Res 13760/13825/13870

What happened yesterday:-
Markets opened firm and remained up the whole day. Volumes were also on higher side. Siemens gained nearly 10% as it announced about orders worth Rs 40 Bn. Other gainers on Nifty were Satyam Comp, Jet airways, Rel Energy. Hind Petro, BPCL lost around 3% each on the back of rising crude prices.

What shall we witness on Thursday:-
Charts do no show any weakness yet. We can still target 3968 and 3988 today as long as we remain above 3939. Some resistance is possible around 3985-3990. But we should never forget that we are at all time highs and intraday correction and minor profit-booking is always a possibility.

Where’s the money:-

BHEL (2464):- Buy with SL of 2450 for target of 2490/2510

L&T (1374):- Supp 1365 Buy with SL 1358 for target 1388/1402

NALCO (222):- Buy with SL 219 for target of 225/229. Investors can also buy for a target of 280 in 3-4 months.

TISCO (473):- Buy with SL of 465 for target of 480/488/494.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 22 NOVEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3860 High 3922 Low 3857 Close 3918

Supp 3898/3874/3855 Res 3940/3955/3966

20 EMA 3806, 50 EMA 3674, 100 EMA 3520

P/E 21 P/B 5.03 Adv 46 Dec 4 Vol Rs 9098.66 Crs

SENSEX: - Open 13435 High 13630 Low 13435 Close 13617

20 EMA 13203, 50 EMA 12710, 100 EMA 12120

Supp 13555/13495/13360 Res 13690/13750/13790

What happened yesterday:-

Markets opened calmly but slowly made their way towards new highs. There was consistent buying in stocks like Suzlon, Siemens, Hind Petro, Reliance Energy and ITC. HDFC was the top loser in Nifty and was down just 0.91%. This shows the strength we had in yesterday’s buying. The top loser also didn’t lose much value. The total Adv-Dec ratio was also very good at 722 Adv v/s 215 Dec. Overall we had a very good session of trading.

What shall we witness on Wednesday:-

The rally is expected to continue today. There was good buying yesterday but in my view, there was not much of short covering from F&O data. Those people are going to take this rally further. There is still a lot of room for markets to go higher as stocks like Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy, ITC, Tata Steel, Tata Motors have been laggards in this rally so far. And if they do perform, we will have a large upside from here also. We should see 3950-3980 in coming days.

Where’s the money:-

3I Infotech(184.50):- Buy with SL of 182 for target of 187-188

Astra Microwave (158):- Buy for short term delivery with SL of 145 and target of 171-175 and 190+.

BHEL(2420):- Supp 2405 Buy for target of 2438/2465/2490 SL should be kept at 2390 for intraday trade.

IOB(116.25):- Buy with SL 114 for 118/121.

Larsen and Toubro(1347):- Support is at 1339 Buy with SL of 1323 for target of 1365/1379/1400

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 21 NOVEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3853 High 3867 Low 3794 Close 3856

Supp 3838/3820/3795 Res 3885/3915/3940

20 EMA 3794, 50 EMA 3664, 100 EMA 3512

P/E 20.67 P/B 4.95 Adv 17 Dec 33 Vol Rs 9628.51 Crs

SENSEX: - Open 13391 High 13463 Low 13200 Close 13431

20 EMA 13160, 50 EMA 12673, 100 EMA 12090

Supp 13360/13320/13260 Res 13530/13590/13630

What happened yesterday:-

Markets opened lower on negative global cues. We saw a large bit of selling in 2^nd hour of trading. But huge buying took place after 2’O clock and we ended 3 points up on Nifty. At one point of time we were down 59 points on Nifty and 229 points on Sensex. Bharti, Jetairways, HDFC, Infosys gained smartly whereas ACC, HDFC Bank, Gail fell almost 3 % each. The recovery was led by Reliance Inds and ICICIBank which recovered well from lows.

What shall we witness today:-

Though yesterday’s sharp initial fall suggested some trend-deterioration, we managed to close above 3825. That looks as a bullish signal. From here, we should at least touch 3885-3900 levels. A new huge rally is expected if we manage to sustain above 3820 after an hour or so today. There is much news about Reliance group stocks. So Reliance Industries and other reliance stocks should remain active today and that can take markets up further up to 3950-3980 also in coming days.

Where’s the money:-

Bank of Baroda (255):- Buy with SL of 249.50 for target of 258/262/269.

Tata Steel(462):- The stock has fallen almost 15% from its recent peak at 548 to yesterday’s low of 458. The stock can be bought with 3 month perspective and can give 10-15% upside from these levels.

TCS(1118):- Supp 1108 Buy with SL of 1098 for target of 1135/1155

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

DAILY REPORT FOR 20 NOVEMBER, 2006

NIFTY: - Open 3877 High 3892 Low 3835 Close 3853

Supp 3825/3805/3770 Res 3885/3918/3940

20 EMA 3787, 50 EMA 3656, 100 EMA 3505

P/E 20.65 P/B 4.95Adv 14 Dec 36 Vol Rs 8720 Crs

SENSEX: - Open 13678 High 13678 Low 13380 Close 13429

Supp 13380/13300/13230 Res 13510/13590/13680

WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY:-

Markets opened flattish, but saw good selling in mid-hours. In spite of that, we regained some lost ground around late hours and closed 25 points down on Nifty. Oil stocks such as HPCL, BPCL rose more than 4% each. HDFC rose 3%. Approval to Indo-US nuclear deal infused good buying in NTPC.

WHAT SHALL WE WITNESS ON MONDAY:-

Today is a crucial day for the markets. If we do not close below 3825 today, we will see a strong rally in coming days. If we do close below 3825 today, we will have good correction until 3670 at least. Outlook remains bullish until we close below the aforesaid levels.

WHERE’S THE MONEY:-

IOB (117.20) :- The stock looks good for from short term perspective. Supp is at 114 and 109. One should buy around those supports with Stop Loss below 104 and target in the vicinity of 140.

GDL (166):- Buy with SL of 162 for target of 172/178

NALCO (220) :- Buy for medium term for target of around 280. Short term players should keep SL around 212.

SAIL (84.85):- Buy with SL 83 for target of 86.50/88.

TCS(1095) :- The stock should be bought with SL 1075 and target 1125 and 1150.

Wockhardt(403) :- Buy with SL of 397 for target of 408/413

Dr Reddy (736) :- Buy for 6-8 month perspective with target around 900. Short term players may buy around 720 with SL below 700. Long term players can accumulate at these levels also.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

Daily Report for 17 November, 2006

nifty (3876) :- Supp 3855-3830-3777 Res 3898-3915-3932

P/E 20.78 P/B 4.98 Adv 18 Dec 31 Unchanged 1 Vol Rs 10321.46 Cr

Sensex (13506) :- Supp 13440/13380/13300 Res 13520/13580/13640

What happened yesterday :-

Nifty opened at 3876, went to 3900 and then came to make a bottom at 3864. Finally we closed at 3876. Nifty could not sustain above 3890 even if we had higher volumes yesterday. Though Sensex closed up just 36 points, there were some real movers yesterday like ACC,HDFC Bank, SBI. Cement stocks performed well after the bulk deal of Gujarat Ambuja.

What shall we witness on Friday :-

Yesterday open and close of nifty were really same. That means there is indecision in the markets right now. We should see some confirmation today. If markets open down and remain lower, we should see some correction happening. On the other hand if we are to go up now, we should see range-bound movement initially and then sustain above 3900. In my view, if we can’t cross resistance around 3885-3890 decisively, we will see some correction today.

There are talks of Nuclear deal happening today in the US and this is a weekend, so market players may not keep positions open. There was 9% fall in PSU Bank stocks Open Iinterest. IOB shed 28% OI. That suggests short covering must have happened yesterday. So further upside seems stark. Investors holding banks should book their some profts at these levels. Crude is coming down again and it may benefit oil marketing companies and refineries.

Where is the money:-

BPCL (362) :- The stock can be bought with SL of 358 for target of 365/368 and 374.

Bank of Baroda (270) :- Go short between 272-274 with SL as 279 and target of 263

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.

News about RBI’s report on Banking frauds

http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/newsarticle/stocksnews.php?autono=251234

SAVING WILL SAVE!!!

In Science, as we go two steps forward, we retreat one step. A famous author in Marathi, N. C. Kelkar had this view when he referred to clothes as an invention. He said man invented clothing to conceal the body. And today we see invention of Nylon which is used to show the body more than it can conceal. Likewise, Einstein invented nuclear power. But USA used it against Japan and bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The impact was so deep that today’s generation is also facing problems because of those explosions. It has just annihilated people there.

Today’s generation is high-tech generation. The employment today is not like yesteryears when Government job was highly esteemed because of its security and post-retirement benefits. Today we see youth craving for highest-paid jobs. I agree that they work hard to earn these jobs. But getting a fat pay-cheque isn’t an end to this. Today, we are living very happily because our parents or grand-parents had saved for their future. OK, they might have Government jobs and pension benefits today. But from what does these post-retirement benefits come? From savings only! So we have to agree that sacrificing current consumption to some extent will make future generations live happily as we are doing today.

Today a 25-year old boy works in an IT company and earns at the age of 30 what his father must have earned in his whole life. That sounds good, no, very good! But alas! This boy consumes almost all of the income he earns. Not only that! Today we see so many credit card companies distributing their cards freely. So people earn and consume, borrow and consume. There is no saving. Or I should say, a little saving. I wish to force people, young people, to save more. The zeitgeist must change.

We have gone two steps ahead of our parents through higher pay-packagese, but we are coming one step back by not saving. By saving more today, we can reduce the future burden on ourselves. Because as we grow in globalization and privatization, one day will come when there will be no pension. People will have to invent ways to accumulate money so that their future will be better after retirement. Saving more requires that we consume less or work more. Either case entails some sacrifice on the part of the current generation. So today’s generation must learn to sacrifice something. It is not difficult. Saving is a habit. You have to inculcate on your inner self that “I have to save so and so and this sacrifice is for my children and grand-children.” And why do we require an economist for this? Any experienced financial advisor can tell you how different avenues of saving can be utilized. There are pension plans, there are monthly income plans, there are many ways.

Our economy is booming today. But a booming economy will not boom forever. Every thing has an end and this boom time will also end. But in good times we must not ignore the trends that may develop when bad times come and they will come, one day! In my view, economic cycles go on. After boom there will be gloom and after gloom, there will again be boom sometime. So there is nothing to worry on that front at least. What we should worry about, is how well will we be placed when bad times come? Will our economy have a crash-landing like Japan did? Or we want to have same standard of living for our future generations like ours? I think some serious thought process has to be started about savings. Saving is conscience! Conscience does not prevent you from committing a sin, but it definitely prevents you from enjoying it. Similarly, saving will not prevent a recession, but it will unquestionably take the sting out of it through future possible consumption!